MiNCE: Nonparametric, Strongly Consistent Confidence Envelopes for Band-Limited Functions and their Smoothed Spectra

In this paper, we investigate the supremum-norm generalization error and the uniform inference for a specific class of kernel regression methods, namely the kernel gradient flows. Under the widely adopted capacity-source condition framework in the kernel regression literature, we first establish convergence rates for the supremum norm generalization error of both continuous and discrete kernel gradient flows under the source condition $s>α_0$, where $α_0\in(0,1)$ denotes the embedding index of the kernel function. Moreover, we show that these rates match the minimax optimal rates. Building on this result, we then construct simultaneous confidence bands for both continuous and discrete kernel gradient flows. Notably, the widths of the proposed confidence bands are also optimal, in the sense that their shrinkage rates are greater than, while can be arbitrarily close to, the minimax optimal rates.

We develop a comprehensive theory for regularized M-estimation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Under mild conditions on the loss we establish existence and measurability of the estimator, covering a wide range of convex and non-convex losses, including bounded robust losses. We further prove sharp rates of convergence with an explicit bias-variance decomposition governed by a novel complexity measure. We show that the variance is independent of misspecification, while the bias depends on a source condition parameter known in the learning literature. For tensor product Sobolev spaces we obtain new rates that connect to spaces of functions with dominating mixed smoothness, substantially extending existing results and explaining why these estimators circumvent the curse of dimensionality. Our methodology, combining elements from both functional analysis and empirical process theory, allows for an asymptotic linearisation of the objective function that avoids both closed-form solutions and global Lipschitz assumptions, and may be of independent interest. The estimators are implemented in C++ and theory is supported by numerical experiments.

The principal objective of this work is twofold within nonparametric regression settings: (1) to establish the minimax optimal convergence rates for fixed-bandwidth Gaussian kernel spectral algorithms when the true regression function resides in a Sobolev space, and (2) to apply Gaussian spectral algorithms for achieving robust and adaptive transfer learning under concept shift. While minimax optimality of misspecified spectral algorithms has been established, existing guarantees are typically restricted to the non-saturation regime. We demonstrate that the infinite smoothness of fixed-bandwidth Gaussian kernels provides universal robustness to model misspecification by showing that this kernel choice enables any spectral algorithm to attain minimax optimal rates, provided the regularization parameter decays exponentially. This result effectively decouples optimality from the algorithm's inherent qualification. Building on this, we then advocate Gaussian spectral algorithms as powerful components in a learning framework for robust and adaptive transfer. Specifically, we derive the adaptive convergence rate of the excess risk for this framework and show that the rates are optimal up to logarithmic factors. Our results also reveal the impact of the magnitude of the concept shift and the sample size on the generalization error.