Confidence Intervals

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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 300% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Prequential E-Values for Selected-GP Near-Optimality Certificates

    Sep 30, 2026Ami Tavory, Noa CohenFinite-Sample CertificatesConfidence Intervals

    Meta Platforms

  2. Reserve-Aware Contrast Certificates for Conservative Bandits with Uncertain Baselines

    Sep 30, 2026Qinchuan ChengBanditsConservative

    School of Automation Science and Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China

  3. How Much Can Reliability Drift Under a Fixed Confidence Distribution?

    Sep 30, 2026Wenhao Liang, Lin Yue, Wei Emma Zhang +3Confidence IntervalsFragility

    Adelaide University

  4. Sharp Limits for Honest Uncertainty in Hard-Budget Repeated Evaluation

    Sep 24, 2026Yezhou Cheng, Runjia Du, Zeming Liu +5Confidence IntervalsControlled Study

    Independent · Northwestern University · Pinterest, Inc.

  5. Overlay_dx - Automating forecasting evaluation

    Sep 21, 2026Long Ngo, Mohammed Amine Chamli, Jonathan Rivalan +1Time Series ForecastingEvaluation Metrics

    Smile, Asnières, France

  6. Prediction-Powered Smoothing and Validation for Disaggregated AI Evaluation

    Sep 17, 2026Sho Kawano, Zehang Richard Li, Paul A. ParkerArtificial Intelligence EvaluationConfidence Intervals

    Department of Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA

  7. How Many Labels Does Model Choice Need? Certificates and Budgets for Selective Prediction

    Sep 16, 2026Tetsuji KuboyamaModel SelectionConfidence Intervals

    Computer Centre, Gakushuin University

  8. From matrix inversion to constraints: provably tighter confidence regions for importance weights in label shift

    Sep 13, 2026Mushan Li, Kihyun Han, Yanyuan MaImportance WeightingDomain Adaptation

    Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA 16802, USA

  9. Compute-Bounded Security Assurance - Coverage, Verification, and Response under Resource Constraints

    Sep 10, 2026Jithin VG, Ditto PSSecurity EvaluationSecurity

    Bud Ecosystem

  10. Scored vs. Generated Readouts in Behavioral Language Models: An Empirical Study of Elicitation Format

    Sep 9, 2026Touchapon Kraisingkorn, Krittin Pachtrachai, Wachiravit ModecruaFree-Form Textual RationalesReadout

    Amity Research and Application Center (ARAC), Amity Group

  11. MiNCE: Nonparametric, Strongly Consistent Confidence Envelopes for Band-Limited Functions and their Smoothed Spectra

    Sep 8, 2026Balázs Csanád Csáji, Bálint HorváthConfidence IntervalsExponential Family

    HUN-REN SZTAKI: Institute for Computer Science and Control, Budapest, Hungary · Institute of Mathematics, Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE), Budapest, Hungary

  12. Distribution-free inference on the number of changepoints

    Sep 8, 2026Rohan Hore, Aaditya RamdasChange-Point DetectionConfidence Intervals

    Department of Statistics, Stanford University

  13. Common-Witness Certificates and Sharp Feature Bounds for Counterfactual Image Auditing

    Sep 3, 2026Usef Faghihi, Amir SakiWitnessesFinite-Sample Certificates

    Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Quebec, Canada

  14. When Prediction Error Is Not Enough: Evaluating Nuisance-Function Prediction for Causal Estimation

    Aug 30, 2026Cong CaoCausal InferencesPrediction Error

    Department of Biostatistics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA

  15. ChronoState: Hidden Elapsed-Time Conditioning for Temporal-State Action Selection in Frozen-Backbone Language Models

    Aug 10, 2026Sam Siavoshian, Omar Ramadan, Amir K. Saeed +3ChronosFrozen Language Model

    Independent Researcher, California, USA · Johns Hopkins University, Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD, USA

  16. Opportunity Is Not Realizability: Selection-Valid Diagnostics for Multi-LLM Routing

    Aug 8, 2026Ibne Farabi Shihab, Abu Sa-Adat Mohamed Moon-Im Al Ahsan, Md Najmus SwaqeebLarge Language Model RoutingPossibilities

    Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University · Department of Computer Science & Engineering, BRAC University

  17. AV-AIVAT: 74x Cheaper Agent Evaluation with Certified Anytime-Valid Stopping in Imperfect-Information Games

    Aug 6, 2026Boning Li, Yu Chen, Longbo HuangPokerAgentic Evaluations

    IIIS, Tsinghua University

  18. Leveraging AI for fine-grained food safety risk forecasting in sparse data conditions

    Aug 3, 2026Dongqi Wang, Weiwei Chen, Han Zhou +1Scalable OversightConfidence Intervals

    School of Management, Zhejiang University · Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Decision Intelligence, Zhejiang University · Department of Supply Chain Management, Rutgers University

  19. Vulnerabilities, Secrets and Misconfiguration in the Highest-Exposure Docker Hub Images

    Aug 2, 2026Cristhian Kapelinski, Beatriz Machado, Diego KreutzCommon Vulnerabilities And ExposureConfidence Intervals

    *AI Horizon Labs, Federal University of Pampa (UNIPAMPA), Alegrete, Brazil

  20. Bootstrapping Self-Supervised Learning of Binary Classification Using Error Bounds: A Case Study on a Robotic Insertion Task

    Jul 31, 2026Zebin Duan, Norbert Krüger, Juan Heredia +2Uncertainty-Aware ClassificationPrediction Error

    Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Institute, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark · Danish Institute for Advanced Study (DIAS), University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark

  21. Analytical and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals of Double Machine Learning: Simulation studies and an application to rural-urban difference in obesity prevalence

    Jul 31, 2026Haozheng Xu, Siyuan Ma, Qingyan XiangConfidence IntervalsPrevalence

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center

  22. Agents That Certify Their Own Exploits: Confidence-Scheduled Restricted Responses for Safe Opponent Exploitation

    Jul 30, 2026Boning Li, Longbo HuangExploitationImperfect-Information Games

    IIIS, Tsinghua University

  23. Breaking the Curse with BAND: Nonparametric Distribution Estimation in High Dimensions

    Jul 29, 2026Shuo-Chieh Huang, Chien-Ming Chi, Jau-er ChenExponential FamilyDensity Ratio Estimation

    Department of Statistics, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, U.S.A. · Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan · School of Political Science and Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

  24. Same Evidence, Different Target: Decoding How Diagnostic Evidence Bears on Causal Questions from Language-Model States

    Jul 29, 2026Weiyi Kong, Zhuoran LiDiagnosisEvidence Conflict

    University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada · The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

  25. FloDR: An invertible dimensionality reduction method based on a normalising flow

    Jul 28, 2026Abdallah Baraka, Daniel ProbstDimensionality ReductionNormalizing Flows

    Bioinformatics Group Wageningen University & Research Wageningen 6708PB, The Netherlands

  26. Characterisation of Density-based FM generation methods in the context of Information Fusion

    Jul 25, 2026Yanhao Huang, Christian WagnerFuzzyUncertainty-Aware Fusion

    Lab for Uncertainty in Data and Decision Making (LUCID) School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham Nottingham, United Kingdom

  27. Priors learned from legacy reconstructions inherit undetectable overconfidence

    Jul 23, 2026Ali Siahkoohi, Sina AlemohammadBayesian Inverse ProblemsConfidence Intervals

    Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA

  28. Sound Probabilistic Safety Bounds for Large Language Models

    Jul 22, 2026Mahdi Nazeri, Anne-Kathrin Schmuck, Sadegh Soudjani +1Large Language Model SafetyProbabilistic Safety

    Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, UK · Max Planck Institute for Software Systems, Germany · School of Computer Science, University of Birmingham, UK

  29. They'll Verify. They Just Won't Act. How Authority Framing and Laundered Code Turn a Trusted Agentic CI/CD Pipeline Into an Attack Surface

    Jul 21, 2026Yohann SidotLaunderingAuthority

    Senthex Research

  30. From Stochastic to Stable: Rank Stability and Structural Sufficiency in AI Visibility Measurement

    Jul 11, 2026Ronald SielinskiCitationsCredibility

    IQRush

  31. MTEB-BR: A Text Embedding Benchmark for Brazilian Portuguese

    Jul 6, 2026Tardelli Ronan Coelho StekelPortugueseText Embeddings

    Federal Institute of S˜ao Paulo (IFSP) S˜ao Paulo, Brazil

  32. Estimating Uncertainty in Classifier Performance with Applications to Large Language Models and Nested Data

    Jun 24, 2026Kylie AnglinConfidence IntervalsLarge Language Model Classification

    Department of Educational Psychology, Neag School of Education, University of Connecticut

  33. Confidence Sequences for Online Statistical Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

    Jun 24, 2026Konstantin Kueffner, Tobias Meggendorfer, Maximilian Weininger +1Markov Decision ProcessesProbabilistic Model Checking

    Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Klosterneuburg, Austria · Lancaster University Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany · Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany +1

  34. When Top-1 Fails: Calibrating LoRA Monitors for Masked Diffusion LMs

    Jun 23, 2026Lucky Verma, Pratik YadavDiffusion Language ModelsMasked Diffusion Language Models

    Independent Researcher · University of Maryland, Baltimore County

  35. Sim-to-Real Betting on the E-Process: Bringing "simulators" to anytime-valid confidence sequences

    Jun 23, 2026Yujia Chen, Bowen WengSim-To-Real GapMonte Carlo

    Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University

  36. Learning-Based Decision Making for Combustion Phasing Control in Multi-Fuel CI Engines with Latent Fuel Reactivity Estimation

    Jun 16, 2026Rajasree Sarkar, Aditya Satish Patil, Arunava Banerjee +4Combustion ControlGenerative Control Policies

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA. · DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, USA, 21005.

  37. Data augmented bootstrap: Unifying confidence interval construction by approximate invariance

    Jun 8, 2026Kevin Han HuangModel-Based BootstrapConfidence Intervals

    Department of Statistics, University of Warwick

  38. GitInject: Real-World Prompt Injection Attacks in AI-Powered CI/CD Pipelines

    Jun 7, 2026Jafar Isbarov, Umid Suleymanov, Ilia Shumailov +1Indirect Prompt InjectionAi-Based

    Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA, USA · AI Sequrity Company London, UK

  39. A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control

    Jun 7, 2026Xiaoli Yu, Jiamiao LiuConformal Risk ControlFinite-Sample Certificates

    School of Cyber Security and Information Law Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications Chongqing 400065, China · Department of Information, Xinqiao Hospital Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University) Chongqing 400037, China

  40. Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

    Jun 1, 2026Ting Xu, Xu He, Yupu Lu +4Chain-of-Thought ReasoningConfidence Intervals

    The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Huawei Technologies Ltd · School of Computing and Data Science, The University of Hong Kong

  41. Bandit Simulation for Average Reward Inference

    May 30, 2026Samya Praharaj, Chih-Yu Chang, Koulik Khamaru +1BanditsConfidence Intervals

    Rutgers University · Imperial College London

  42. Calibrated Inference for the Conditional Average Treatment Effect in the Few-Placebo Regime via Gaussian Processes

    May 26, 2026Eichi UeharaHeterogeneous Treatment EffectsCausal Inferences

    AFLO

  43. Statistical Inference for Stochastic Gradient Descent Beyond Finite Variance

    May 25, 2026Jose Blanchet, Peter Glynn, Wenhao YangStochastic Gradient DescentConfidence Intervals

    Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

  44. Ternary Decision Trees with Locally-Adaptive Uncertainty Zones

    May 21, 2026William SmitsDecision TreesPredictive Uncertainty

    Avathon, Austin, TX, USA

  45. Learning Context-conditioned Gaussian Overbounds for Convolution-Based Uncertainty Propagation

    May 15, 2026Ruirui Liu, Xuejie Hou, Yiping Jiang +1Uncertainty QuantificationConfidence Intervals

    Department of Aeronautical and Aviation Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

  46. Foundations of Reliable Inference: Reliability-Efficiency Co-Design

    May 11, 2026Jiayi HuangUncertainty-Aware ClassificationBayesian Neural Networks

    The Department of EngineeringarXiv:2605.10351v1 King’s College London

  47. On Uniform Error Bounds for Kernel Regression under Non-Gaussian Noise

    May 10, 2026Johannes Teutsch, Oleksii Molodchyk, Marion Leibold +2Non-GaussianityUncertainty Quantification

    Chair of Automatic Control Engineering, Department of Computer Engineering, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany · Institute of Control Systems, Hamburg University of Technology, 21073 Hamburg, Germany · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore, 117583 Singapore

  48. Skill Drift Is Contract Violation: Proactive Maintenance for LLM Agent Skill Libraries

    May 9, 2026Linfeng Fan, Yuan Tian, Ziwei Li +1ContractsViolation

    Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China · King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia

  49. Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Means

    May 8, 2026Valentin Kilian, Stefano Cortinovis, François CaronConfidence IntervalsBayesian

    Department of Statistics, University of Oxford

  50. From Assistance to Agency: Rethinking Autonomy and Control in CI/CD Pipelines

    May 8, 2026Marcus Emmanuel Barnes, Taher A. Ghaleb, Safwat HassanConfidence Intervals

    Faculty of Information University of Toronto Toronto, Ontario, Canada · Department of Computer Science Trent University Peterborough, Ontario, Canada

  51. Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator

    May 7, 2026Yuqian Cheng, Zhuo Chen, Qian LinConfidence IntervalsWasserstein Gradient Flows

    Department of Mathematical Sciences Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China · Department of Statistics and Data Science2026 Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, ChinaMay

  52. Robust Parameter Learning for Uncertain MDPs

    May 2, 2026Yannik Schnitzer, Alessandro Abate, David ParkerMarkov Decision ProcessesLearning-Augmented Algorithms

    University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

  53. Reliable Self-Harm Risk Screening via Adaptive Multi-Agent LLM Systems

    Apr 24, 2026Meghana Karnam, Ananya JoshiSuicide RiskMulti-Agent Large Language Model Systems

    Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, USA

  54. Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimation

    Apr 20, 2026Maria-Eleni Sfyraki, Jun-Kun WangConfidence IntervalsProbability

    University of California San Diego

  55. Approximate full conformal prediction in an RKHS

    Jan 19, 2026Davidson Lova Razafindrakoto, Alain Celisse, Jérôme LacailleOnline Conformal PredictionConfidence Intervals

    Laboratoire SAMM Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne 90, rue de Tolbiac 75634 PARIS CEDEX 13, FRANCE · Safran Aircraft Engines Rond-Point René Ravaud, Réau, 77550 Moissy-Cramayel CEDEX, France

  56. Efficient Conformal Prediction for Regression Models under Label Noise

    Sep 18, 2025Yahav Cohen, Jacob Goldberger, Tom TirerOnline Conformal PredictionConfidence Intervals

    Faculty of Engineering Bar-Ilan University Ramat Gan, Israel

  57. PERRY: Policy Evaluation with Confidence Intervals using Auxiliary Data

    Jul 26, 2025Aishwarya Mandyam, Jason Meng, Ge Gao +4Policy EvaluationConfidence Intervals

    Stanford University · Gladstone Institutes · Stanford University[cs.LG]

  58. CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk

    Jul 10, 2025Ilia Azizi, Juraj Bodik, Jakob Heiss +1Uncertainty QuantificationConfidence Intervals

    Department of Operations, HEC, University of Lausanne, Switzerland · BegooAI, Switzerland · Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, USA +1

  59. Bayesian Deep Learning for Discrete Choice

    May 23, 2025Daniel F. Villarraga, Ricardo A. DazianoDiscrete Choice ModelsBayesian Neural Networks

    School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, 220 Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA

  60. On the Sublinear Regret of Continuous K-Max Bandits

    Feb 19, 2025Yu Chen, Siwei Wang, Longbo Huang +1Stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits\Widetilde{\Mathcal{O}}(\Sqrt{T})$ Regret

    Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences, Tsinghua University · 2Microsoft Research Asia