Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

We propose a new approach to two-sample testing for deciding whether two sets of samples are drawn from the same distribution. The test is built on a statistical discrepancy based on the zero-flow criterion, termed zero-flow discrepancy (ZFD). We prove the validity of ZFD and propose a practical testing procedure, termed the zero-flow two-sample test (ZF2ST). The key idea is to learn how samples from the two distributions are locally misaligned and use the resulting directional pattern as evidence of distributional difference. By separating witness learning from hypothesis evaluation, ZF2ST can use flexible neural networks while maintaining valid statistical calibration. We develop both regression-based and power-maximized approaches for learning the witness. Experiments on synthetic and image datasets demonstrate that ZF2ST can achieve strong testing power for structured distributional changes while maintaining well-calibrated type-I error.

Normalizing Flows excel at modeling a single fixed density, yet many problems across the sciences, such as high energy physics, instead require modeling how that density deforms as a function of continuous parameters: the strength of a physical effect, a calibration constant, or a source of systematic uncertainty. Learning a separate flow for every parameter configuration quickly becomes intractable, since the number of joint settings grows exponentially with the number of parameters. We introduce Factorizable Normalizing Flows (FNFs), which represent the parameter-dependent density as a fixed, high-fidelity flow for a reference configuration composed with a learnable transformation that is polynomial in the parameters and factorized over them. This structure has a practical consequence: each parameter's effect is learned in isolation, from samples in which that parameter alone is varied. The combined response of many parameters is then recovered by summation at inference, without ever sampling their combinatorially large joint space. On a controlled problem with two interpretable deformations applied jointly to the data, the learned transformation reproduces the true deformations and matches the optimal likelihood, while optional interaction terms capture residual correlations when several parameters vary strongly at once. The resulting model is interpretable, scales linearly with the number of parameters, and keeps the likelihood tractable. This provides a general tool for any inference workflow requiring continuous density morphing, and directly enables the next generation of unbinned likelihood fits in high energy physics.

Normalizing flow Boltzmann generators retain a tractable pushforward density, but training with forward KL depends on target samples that may be biased or omit modes. As a result, a flow can miss target mass while its observed importance weights give a high effective sample size. We introduce the log-ratio variation $\X_ω$, the mean absolute pairwise difference of the target-to-pushforward log-density ratio under a weighting measure $ω$, and use it to define KLXX, a new loss function. Two log-ratio variations are added to the forward KL (denoted by the two X's): one weighted by the target to improve accuracy, the other by a mixture of quench and temper samples with pushforward samples to search candidate modes. We derive the Fisher--Rao gradient flow of KLXX, where both variations contribute nonpositive dissipation, and a fixed-surrogate error bound for KLXX. We use KLXX in an adaptive-staging Boltzmann generator, with importance reweighting at every stage. We bound the sampling error of its inference scheme when the stage weights are essentially bounded, and prove it asymptotically unbiased in the sample size. In the numerical tests, KLXX improves mode coverage over forward KL. It also improves the generator's per-stage diagnostics against the loss that built the schedule. The observables the generator recovers are close to independent references. The log-ratio variations thus supply information that the forward KL loss usually omits.