Threshold-Based Selection for Continuous Optimization: A Leaf-Abscission Instantiation

LLM-driven evolutionary search finds programs by launching seeds and iterating each one. Papers report a single budget setting, usually one seed run for a fixed number of iterations, and rank methods from that one point. We show this is not enough. We evaluate three evolutionary search strategies on five optimization tasks, commonly used by papers in the genre to report results. We run the analysis over a full grid of seeds and iterations. Our findings suggest that the best way to split a fixed budget between more seeds (width) and more iterations (depth) changes with the strategy, the task, and the total budget. Furthermore, we observe that the ranking of strategies also changes with the budget. On one task the strategy that looks worst at one seed is best at forty seeds. On another the best number of iterations is well below the value common in practice, so extra depth wastes budget that more seeds would turn into score. We provide a measurement protocol that reports the seeds-by-iterations frontier and practical guidance for using it.

This paper evaluates the Metabolic Multi-Agent Optimizer (MMAO) under a stricter empirical protocol rather than reintroducing the framework itself. The study asks whether MMAO's closed-loop resource-allocation principle remains credible under broader, more standard, and more explicitly budget-controlled continuous and discrete benchmarks. The main completed matrix covers eight CEC2017 functions at 10D and 30D with 20 seeds each, and five TSPLIB instances with 20 seeds each, together with stronger reproducible baselines including PSO-lite, ES-lite, and an iterated-greedy 2-opt route baseline. We further add trajectory-level diagnostics for communal budget, success rate, role evolution, and population turnover, plus an auxiliary OR-Library multiple-knapsack slice to extend the discrete evidence beyond routing. Under this protocol, MMAO clearly outperforms the external baseline set on the continuous side and on the TSPLIB side, while the ablation variants remain much closer to the full method than the external baselines are. We therefore position MMAO as a benchmark-backed cross-domain adaptive framework whose most clearly validated value is endogenous resource redistribution under evidence pressure, while also noting that the strongest remaining gap is not basic workability but sharper mechanism isolation and broader competition-grade comparison.

Published transfer-BO comparisons often estimate an average treatment effect of acquisition choice over hidden regime variables, while practitioners need the conditional effect for their specific prior quality, budget ratio, and metric. An audit of 40 transfer-BO papers from NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR, AISTATS, UAI, TMLR, JMLR, and AutoML-Conf (2022-2025) finds that 98% never vary B/|A| as a controlled axis. On the same GDSC2 benchmark, changing only the budget reverses the ranking: at B=50, Greedy outperforms UCB by 0.050 Hit@1, while at B=100, UCB outperforms Greedy by 0.035. We capture this transition with the Portable Regime Score PRS=(B/|A|)(1-rho), where rho is the prior rank correlation and can be estimated from pilot contexts before the main comparison. Across 79 conditions spanning chemistry, drug-response biology, and HPO, a hierarchical model gives beta=0.50 (p=1.1e-9), and 19% of conditions fall in an equivalence zone where |advantage|<0.01 Hit@1. In five published reversal cases, PRS predicts the winner from pre-comparison observables. A No-Free-Leaderboard proposition explains why unconditional rankings are unstable: when CATE changes sign across regimes, the reported ATE becomes a function of benchmark mixture. RegimePlanner, which estimates rho online and switches acquisition accordingly, wins all 16 HPO-B search spaces at B=100 and exceeds the matched {Greedy,UCB} per-context oracle on GDSC2 by 18%. Pre-registered predictions achieve 27/40=67.5% overall accuracy and above 90% within EMA prior families. The practical protocol is simple: report B/|A|, rho, K, and metric alongside any claimed acquisition advantage.