Earnings conference calls are a primary channel through which managers disclose information under analyst scrutiny. Prior work has linked vocal and lexical cues to future adverse outcomes, but often pools features over an entire call and underuses the interactive structure of Q&A. We propose a two-branch late-fusion framework for detecting managerial evasiveness as a predictor of extrinsic SEC events (primarily late filings): (i) an LLM-as-a-judge that maps Q&A text to an interpretable call-level vector X_text via a structured binary rubric, and (ii) a frozen conversational encoder whose temporal hidden states are read by a DeepVoice-style sequential reader to produce an audio representation h. Late fusion of (X_text, h) yields a call-level risk score p. On n=1,039 calls (212 late filings) with firm-grouped 5-fold CV, fusion reaches AUROC approx. 0.89, versus 0.55 for the text judge and 0.71 for duration alone. These results show that conversational audio dynamics encode managerial evasiveness beyond lexical content and call length, yielding a stronger early-warning signal of adverse SEC outcomes.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Two-branch fusion architecture. Prep yields Q&A text/audio. An LLM-as-a-judge produces Xtext ; a frozen Moshi encoder yields frame states read by a DeepVoice-style reader to h ; late fusion maps (Xtext,h) to p for extrinsic SEC label y .
Existing approaches to evasion detection in earnings calls focus on textual transcripts, treating evasion as a single-dimensional phenomenon. We argue that evasion in spoken communication is inherently multidimensional: beyond what executives say, how they say it carries independent and complementary information. To study these dimensions jointly, we introduce DualEvasion, a benchmark for evasion detection across text and audio in earnings call Q&A. The benchmark contains 505 annotated question-answer pairs from 60 earnings calls, each with two independent labels: textual evasion (direct vs. evasive) and vocal cues operationalized as speaker confidence (confident vs. unconfident). Our experiments show that state-of-the-art multimodal models struggle to detect vocal confidence, particularly on unconfident responses. Our analysis suggests these models interpret acoustic cues in isolation rather than relative to each speaker's baseline. Providing speaker-level references yields modest improvements, but a substantial gap with human performance remains.
Mirae Kim, Seonghun Jeong, Youngjun Kwak
Financial Tech Lab, KakaoBank Corp. · Yonsei University
Earnings calls are a key source of financial information about public companies. However, extracting information from these calls is difficult. Unlike the templatic filings required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to report a company's financial situation, earnings conference calls have no built-in labels, are unstructured, and feature conversational language. We explore this challenging domain by assessing the information captured by models trained on SEC filings and in-context learning methods. To establish a baseline, we first evaluate the generalization capabilities of SEC-trained models across established SEC datasets. To support our investigation, we introduce three novel benchmarks: (1) SEC Filings Benchmark (SECB), (2) Earnings Calls Benchmark (ECB), and ECB-A, a subset with 2,460 expert annotation groups to support our qualitative analysis. We find that encoder-based models struggle with the domain shift. Finally, we propose a system utilizing LLMs to perform open-ended extraction from unstructured call transcripts, verified by human evaluation (79.7% precision), providing a baseline for this valuable domain through the consistent tracking of emergent KPIs.
Rasmus T. Aavang, Rasmus Tjalk-Bøggild, Alexandre Iolov +3
Department of Computer Science, Aalborg University, Denmark · ALIPES ApS, Denmark · University of Copenhagen
In computational paralinguistics, detecting cognitive load and deception from speech signals is a heavily researched domain. Recent efforts have attempted to apply these acoustic frameworks to corporate earnings calls to predict catastrophic stock market volatility. In this study, we empirically investigate the limits of acoustic feature extraction (pitch, jitter, and hesitation) when applied to highly trained speakers in in-the-wild teleconference environments. Utilizing a two-stream late-fusion architecture, we contrast an acoustic-based stream with a baseline Natural Language Processing (NLP) stream. The isolated NLP model achieved a recall of 66.25% for tail-risk downside events. Surprisingly, integrating acoustic features via late fusion significantly degraded performance, reducing recall to 47.08%. We identify this degradation as Acoustic Camouflage, where media-trained vocal regulation introduces contradictory noise that disrupts multimodal meta-learners. We present these findings as a boundary condition for speech processing applications in high-stakes financial forecasting.
Dhruvin Dungrani, Disha Dungrani
Department of Information Systems, Independent Researchers