We introduce document embedding geometry as a quantitative observable of conceptual reorganization and develop a counterfactual ablation framework for measuring how individual concepts influence the organization of scientific knowledge, providing a quantitative framework for detecting scientific revolutions. The observable is defined by the geometric perturbation induced when removing documents associated with a candidate concept from the embedding space before and after its historical emergence. Statistical validation is performed using five historical case studies spanning physics, mathematics, and machine learning: special relativity, Gödel's incompleteness theorems, the Higgs mechanism, deep learning, and the attention mechanism underlying transformer architectures. Across the historical case studies, the framework identifies measurable geometric signatures associated with conceptual reorganization, while the validation studies expose important limitations arising from document assignment and sparse historical data. These results establish embedding geometry as a medium for quantifying conceptual reorganization, providing a new approach for studying how scientific fields restructure over time.
Wikipedia plays a key role in shaping public understanding of science, and its openly accessible revision history is a unique record of how scientific knowledge evolves over time. Yet scientifically meaningful revisions are obscured by the sheer volume of routine edits, leaving each article's scientific history hidden. We present WikiSTAR (Scientific Tracking of Article Revisions), an interactive system for exploring scientifically meaningful changes across an article's revision history. Using an LLM classifier with an expert-designed multi-label taxonomy, WikiSTAR first tags edit types such as the addition of technical terms, new research findings, and changes in scientific narrative. Then, through interactive views, an article's full revision history can be traced at any granularity - from aggregate trends that reveal when and in which sections scientific content was added or refined, down to individual edits - showing how scientific knowledge develops at a scale previously impossible. In a user study, experts from three domains found that WikiSTAR surfaced new patterns and research questions and enabled previously impractical analyses. We release our system, code and a human-annotated benchmark.
Forecasting scientific relations can guide discovery by identifying promising connections before they emerge. Existing approaches often model concept semantics and graph structure separately or summarize semantics over coarse historical snapshots, leaving semantic representations potentially misaligned with rapidly evolving graph evidence. We propose a time-aligned evolving concept graph framework that jointly models semantic and structural evolution. Its core idea is to treat dated papers as shared update events, reconstructing semantic and structural states from the same publication history through each prediction time. Pair-level fusion combines these states to forecast first co-occurrence, relation formation, and conditional relation type. Holding architecture and training fixed, refreshing context alongside graph updates improves mean relation AUPRC by 16.6% over frozen context. On a graph built from 187,848 papers with 270,687 concepts and 7.45 million co-occurrence links, the complete framework improves mean relation AUROC from 0.9290 for the strongest evaluated baseline to 0.9722, with mean population-weighted AUPRC 0.005778.
We introduce an explainable machine-learning approach that forecasts the structural precursors of scientific breakthroughs -- the emergence and intensification of links between research concepts -- by modelling how OpenAlex concept networks evolve over time. Using 59 semantic and topological features, a two-stage LightGBM model jointly predicts the formation and the future weight of concept pairs, adding a regression stage that quantifies expected intensity to prior link-existence forecasts. Relative to the state of the art, the approach improves accuracy and explainability at once: comparative validation across four technology and biomedical domains yields ROC-AUC in [0.954, 0.967] at all horizons without re-tuning, exceeding the roughly 0.90 of prior models, while every forecast rests on structural, auditable features rather than opaque embeddings. Classification performance is high (AUC about 0.95) and regression remains stable (RMSLE 0.45 to 0.6 over one to five years). Feature attribution shows that structural factors -- particularly Adamic-Adar similarity and degree-based Hadamard measures -- consistently drive accuracy, suggesting that breakthrough-relevant recombinations emerge in tightly connected sub-networks. Two expert-anchored cases, quantum annealing and AI-enabled quantum architectures, show the model surfacing technological convergence consistent with expert expectations. We then outline a three-layer decision architecture -- detection, expert translation, institutional integration -- that turns these forecasts into evidence-based research strategy and policy, anchored in open data and explainable features.
Thomas Maillart, Thibaut Chataing, Ntorina Antoni +4