Structured Features Overfit Where Random Features Grok

We study grokking, the onset of generalization long after overfitting, in a classical ridge regression setting. We prove end-to-end grokking results for learning over-parameterized linear regression models using gradient descent with weight decay. Specifically, we prove that the following stages occur: (i) the model overfits the training data early during training; (ii) poor generalization persists long after overfitting has manifested; and (iii) the generalization error eventually becomes arbitrarily small. Moreover, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that grokking can be amplified or eliminated in a principled manner through proper hyperparameter tuning. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous quantitative bounds on the generalization delay (which we refer to as the "grokking time") in terms of training hyperparameters. Lastly, going beyond the linear setting, we empirically demonstrate that our quantitative bounds also capture the behavior of grokking on non-linear neural networks. Our results suggest that grokking is not an inherent failure mode of deep learning, but rather a consequence of specific training conditions, and thus does not require fundamental changes to the model architecture or learning algorithm to avoid.

In grokking an early fit to the training data separates from a much later improvement in generalization. During this delay, training can move from a fixed neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime to one in which task-relevant kernel eigendirections continue to evolve. We provide a quantitative theory for how this transition from lazy to rich learning can produce delayed generalization. For homogeneous networks trained with squared loss and $L_2$ weight decay, we show that a finite residual remains after memorization, with larger residual fractions in target components associated with smaller NTK eigenvalues. These residuals feed back into the dynamics of the NTK itself, and projecting the resulting dynamics onto task-relevant spectral directions yields a reduced system in which residual-driven kernel growth competes with weight decay. This system predicts that the grokking timescale is controlled by the product of learning rate and weight decay, that feature learning slows logarithmically near a critical decay above which task-aligned NTK structure can no longer support generalization, and that stronger decay can prevent fitting altogether. We test these predictions in modular addition. In a homogeneous MLP, task-aligned Fourier structure continues to emerge in the NTK after training accuracy has saturated, and an 84$\times$90-grid of trained networks across varying learning rate and weight decay recovers the predicted phase geometry and inverse-product scaling of the generalization time with learning rate and weight decay. A one-block Transformer shows similar macroscopic phase structure in a 42$\times$45-grid, as well as the same transition-time scaling despite violating exact homogeneity. Together, these results provide a mechanistic derivation connecting post-fit feature learning to both the onset of generalization and its phase structure in the learning rate and weight decay plane.

Neural networks trained past memorization frequently undergo a delayed transition to generalization, a phenomenon known as grokking. Despite theoretical progress on \emph{why} this transition occurs, the quantitative structure of \emph{when} it occurs in hyperparameter space remains uncharacterized. We map the memorization-to-generalization boundary across 384 configurations of two-hidden-layer MLPs on modular arithmetic, fitting a power-law scaling relation for generalization onset time: $T_{\mathrm{grok}} \propto H^{-0.27}\, D^{-2.04}\, \eta^{-0.50}\, \lambda^{-0.64}$ ($R^2 = 0.732$; $0.821$ with interactions). The exponent hierarchy reveals that data complexity ($D^{-2.04}$) is the dominant driver of regime transition, not model capacity ($H^{-0.27}$): doubling data accelerates generalization by ${\sim}4\times$, while doubling width yields only ${\sim}1.2\times$. A sharp phase boundary at weight decay $\lambda \gtrsim 1.0$ separates grokking from non-grokking configurations, and weight norm trajectories show monotonic compression during the transition, consistent with implicit regularization selecting low-complexity solutions. These results provide a quantitative foundation for predicting and controlling regime transitions in overparameterized networks.