Organizations: Old Dominion University, Virginia, USA · University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Arkansas, USA
Abstract
Recent approaches to 30-day hospital readmission prediction rely on pre-trained language models applied to discharge summaries. Although these methods achieve strong performance, they depend on the availability of clinical notes, incur substantial computational costs, and yield representations that lack interpretability. We propose a knowledge-enriched feature representation that augments structured Electronic Health Record (EHR) data with four medical knowledge sources: disease ontology mapping, procedure classification, drug ingredient vocabulary, and organ system laboratory aggregation, without using clinical notes. Each feature dimension corresponds to a named clinical concept, yielding a sparse and interpretable patient representation. The approach is evaluated with six classifiers on a MIMIC-IV v2.2 cohort. Under 20-fold cross-validation, the best configuration achieves an AUROC of 0.743. This performance is comparable to that of previously reported methods on this dataset, including both those using only structured data and those incorporating clinical notes, while requiring considerably less computational cost. Interpretability analysis shows that demographics, organ system labs, drug ingredient features, and first-level ontology disease categories drive prediction, while deeper hierarchy levels contribute negligibly. These findings indicate that knowledge-enriched structured features offer a competitive and efficient alternative to embeddings from clinical notes for 30-day readmission prediction.
Learning from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) has gained significant attention due to its potential to improve clinical prediction. However, effective learning remains challenging because EHRs encode heterogeneous, temporally ordered clinical interactions. In particular, EHRs contain: (i) heterogeneous clinical entities, including patients, visits, diagnoses, prescriptions, and procedures, together with their heterogeneous interactions, (ii) longitudinal patient trajectories across hospital visits and (iii) shared statistical dependencies across related clinical prediction tasks. Existing EHR learning methods capture only a subset of these properties. To bridge this gap, we propose Multi-task Graph transformer for Heterogeneous Temporal EHRs (MiGHT-EHR), which jointly models all three within a unified representation learning method. MiGHT-EHR constructs a heterogeneous graph from EHRs in which nodes represent clinical entities and edges connect statistically associated entities identified via normalized point-wise mutual information. Across MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets, MiGHT-EHR outperforms state-of-the-art methods on average across four tasks: drug recommendation, prediction of length-of-stay, mortality, and readmission, with particularly strong improvements in mortality and readmission prediction. Furthermore, a post-hoc analysis of the learned representations reveals that patient neighborhoods are organized by clinical outcomes, salient medical concepts are recoverable as linear directions in the representation space, and task probabilities are well calibrated. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that MiGHT-EHR representations support diverse prediction tasks while preserving clinically interpretable structure.
Objective: To propose and retrospectively validate an integrated framework addressing three barriers to clinical translation of readmission prediction: lack of explainability, absence of deployment reliability infrastructure, and inadequate demographic fairness evaluation. Materials and Methods: We constructed a cohort of 415231 adult admissions from the MIMIC-IV database (30-day readmission prevalence 18.0%), split 70/15/15. Logistic regression, XGBoost, and LightGBM models were trained on 26 features. SHAP provided per-patient explanations. Fairness was evaluated across 16 subgroups using AUC-ROC, false negative rate (FNR), and positive predictive value (PPV). Calibration was assessed using Brier scores and calibration curves. Results: XGBoost achieved AUC-ROC 0.696 (95% CI 0.691-0.701), outperforming or matching the LACE baseline (AUC 0.60-0.68). LightGBM achieved best calibration (Brier 0.146). Prior admissions were the dominant predictor. All subgroups met equity thresholds (delta AUC <= 0.05, delta FNR <= 0.10). Conclusion: This framework delivers competitive performance, clinically actionable explanations, and strong demographic equity. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tomisin92/readmission-prediction.
With the proliferation of Electronic Health Records (EHRs), a critical challenge in building predictive models is determining the optimal historical data time window to maximize accuracy. This study investigates the impact of various observation windows ranging from the day of surgery to three years prior on predicting 30-day readmission following hip and knee arthroplasties. The dataset encompasses both structured encounter records (over 4 million) and unstructured clinical notes (80,000) from 7,174 patients. To extract meaning from the clinical notes, we employed a suite of non neural (BOW, count BOW, TF IDF, LDA) and neural encoders (BERT, 1D CNN, BiLSTM, Average). We subsequently evaluated models utilizing clinical notes alone, structured data alone, and a combination of both modalities. Our results demonstrate that the optimal time window for unstructured clinical notes is significantly shorter than for structured data, maximum predictive performance was achieved using notes from just three to six months prior to surgery. In contrast, performance using structured data improved as the time window lengthened, but strictly plateaued after twelve months. These modality-specific temporal patterns remained consistent regardless of model complexity or encoder type. Ultimately, these findings challenge the general assumption that more historical data inherently yields better machine learning predictions, establishing targeted time-window guidelines for optimizing readmission prediction models.