Design of a Deep Learning Credit Risk Early Warning System Integrating Multi-source Heterogeneous Data

Credit risk default prediction remains a cornerstone of risk management in the financial industry. The task involves estimating the likelihood that a borrower will fail to meet debt obligations, an objective critical for lending decisions, portfolio optimization, and regulatory compliance. Traditional machine learning models such as logistic regression and tree-based ensembles are widely adopted for their interpretability and strong empirical performance. However, modern credit datasets are high-dimensional, heterogeneous, and noisy, increasing overfitting risk in monolithic models and reducing robustness under distributional shift. We introduce STRIKE (Stacking via Targeted Representations of Isolated Knowledge Extractors), a feature-group-aware stacking framework for structured tabular credit risk data. Rather than training a single monolithic model on the complete dataset, STRIKE partitions the feature space into semantically coherent groups and trains independent learners within each group. This decomposition is motivated by an additive perspective on risk modeling, where distinct feature sources contribute complementary evidence that can be combined through a structured aggregation. The resulting group-specific predictions are integrated through a meta-learner that aggregates signals while maintaining robustness and modularity. We evaluate STRIKE on three real-world datasets spanning corporate bankruptcy and consumer lending scenarios. Across all settings, STRIKE consistently outperforms strong tree-based baselines and conventional stacking approaches in terms of AUC-ROC. Ablation studies confirm that performance gains stem from meaningful feature decomposition rather than increased model complexity. Our findings demonstrate that STRIKE is a stable, scalable, and interpretable framework for credit risk default prediction tasks.

Credit risk detection, particularly mitigating individual fraud, is crucial for maintaining the stability of digital financial ecosystems. Accurately identifying credit fraud among billions of users is critical for minimizing financial losses and safeguarding the sustainability of inclusive financial services. Given that credit fraud risks are often concealed within heterogeneous user-risk graphs, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as an effective tool for risk mining by capturing complex dependencies. To address the scalability bottleneck of industrial GNNs, distributed training based on subgraphs is indispensable. However, existing strategies often compromise topological integrity for load balancing. This can be catastrophic for risk detection, as it indiscriminately severs the long-tail evidence chains essential for risk propagation. Overlapping subgraphs can restore severed risk contexts but inevitably introduce redundancy and noise, while overlooking the representation alignment across different local subgraphs. In this paper, we propose a risk-aware overlapping subgraph learning framework for large-scale credit risk detection. We first construct base partitions to ensure load balance. Then, we perform budget-constrained sampling that selects informative long-tail nodes, thereby preserving critical risk diffusion patterns while filtering out noise. To mitigate representation inconsistency, we design a cross-subgraph consistency alignment mechanism. By enforcing alignment constraints on the overlapping nodes, we harmonize the local representations into a globally consistent latent space. Extensive experiments on Weixin Pay's production dataset demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms existing strategies for risk detection, offering a scalable and effective solution for industrial graph learning.

In recent years, credit card fraud detection has faced significant challenges due to highly imbalanced data, evolving fraud patterns, and complex relational structures among transaction entities. To address these issues, this research proposes a novel framework called Timeaware Multi Relational Guided Graph Neural Network (TMR GGNN). Particularly, the proposed TMR GGNN extends the encoder decoder Graph Neural Network GNN architecture by modeling heterogeneous interactions across customers, merchants, devices, and IPs over temporal windows. Subsequently, the proposed TMR GGNN approach constructs a dynamic, multi relational graph and incorporates a time aware relational attention mechanism within the encoder to adaptively weigh the transaction relevance based on temporal proximity and semantic context. Consequently, the decoder employs a contrastive learning module to distinguish between real and synthesized transaction patterns, while improving the models generalization of rare fraud cases. Additionally, to effectively manage severe class imbalances and emphasize discriminative learning, a composite loss function combining Information Noise Contrastive Estimation (InfoNCE) based contrastive loss with Focal Loss is introduced. This integration assists in improving fraud identification while mitigating false negatives.