Transfer Learning for Socioeconomic Estimation in Forced-Displacement Settings

Poverty statistics guide social policy, but in many low- and middle-income countries, censuses and household surveys that collect these data are costly, infrequent, quickly outdated, and sometimes error-prone. Satellite imagery offers global coverage and the possibility of predicting economic livelihoods at scale, yet existing approaches to predicting livelihoods with imagery or other non-traditional data often fail to reliably identify local-level variation and, as we show, degrade under temporal shift. Here we introduce Tempov, a satellite foundation model pretrained by self-supervision on three million bi-temporal Landsat pairs and adapted with parameter-efficient fine-tuning to sparse survey labels. The model enables large-scale, high-resolution wealth mapping and dynamic measurement, including zero-shot nowcasting up to a decade after observed labels, retrospective hindcasting, and decadal change tracking, while outperforming existing neural network and geospatial foundation-model baselines. In low-label regimes, Tempov achieves competitive accuracy with only 10% of survey samples, indicating substantially reduced dependence on expensive label collection. The model further generalizes across populous countries within and outside Africa, and scales to a unified Africa-wide model with strong continent-level performance ($R^2=0.63$, $r^2=0.68$), from which we generate high-resolution decadal maps of wealth and wealth changes for the African continent. Analysis of these maps shows large variation in recent economic performance both within and across countries. Our open-source approach provides a pathway to timely, scalable, low-cost monitoring of wealth and poverty from routinely collected satellite data.

Development and humanitarian organizations produce and support surveys, administrative registries, and other data resources to inform research, policy, and operations, yet systematically identifying where these datasets are referenced remains difficult. Such references are dispersed across research papers, project documents, humanitarian reports, and other unstructured text, limiting both the ability to trace data use and to identify potential gaps in data availability or dissemination. We present a weakly supervised framework for adapting dataset extraction to forced displacement and Fragile, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) documents without first constructing a large manually labeled training corpus. A lightweight model trained on general research literature generates candidate dataset mentions from unlabeled domain documents, which a frontier large language model (LLM) reviews in context, validating or rejecting candidates and correcting their extraction boundaries. The resulting annotations are supplemented with targeted synthetic and contrastive examples and used to fine-tune the lightweight model for large-scale extraction. We evaluate the resulting model on an independent gold-standard benchmark of 1,706 text passages spanning research, humanitarian, and operational documents. Across the full benchmark, the model achieves 74.1% precision and 70.5% recall at the mention level; among passages containing dataset references, precision reaches 89.5%. At the passage level, the model achieves 88.2% accuracy and 88.6% specificity in distinguishing passages with dataset references from those without them. These results demonstrate a practical approach for constructing domain-specific supervision when labeled data are limited, and provide a technical foundation for larger-scale analysis of data use and potential gaps in the displacement data landscape.

We investigate whether socioeconomic indicators, like household wealth, leave recoverable informational imprints in both satellite imagery (capturing features like buildings and roads) and Internet-sourced text (reflecting historical, cultural, and narratives of neighborhoods). Using DHS data from African neighborhoods (clusters), we pair high-resolution Landsat images with textual descriptions generated by LLMs conditioned on location/year, plus text retrieved by an LLM-driven AI Search Agent from web sources. We develop a multimodal framework that predicts household wealth (International Wealth Index; IWI) via five pipelines: (i) a vision model on satellite images, (ii) an LLM using only location and year, (iii) an AI agent that searches and synthesizes web text, (iv) a joint image-text encoder, and (v) an ensemble of all signals. Our framework yields three contributions. First, evaluations show that fusing vision and agent/LLM-generated text improves on vision-only baselines in wealth prediction (e.g., R-squared of 0.77 vs. 0.63 on out-of-sample splits), with LLM-internal knowledge (artificial neural memory) proving surprisingly predictive in out-of-country/time generalization. Second, we find suggestive evidence of partial representational alignment: fused embeddings from vision and language modalities correlate moderately (median cosine similarity across modalities of about 0.60 after alignment). This pattern is broadly consistent with the Platonic Representation Hypothesis, but does not by itself establish convergence to a single shared latent representation. Because agent-retrieved data yields only marginal and unstable gains across splits, our evidence for the Agent-Induced Novelty Hypothesis is limited. Third, we release a large-scale multimodal dataset of about 60,000 DHS clusters, each linked to satellite images, LLM-generated descriptions, and AI-agent-retrieved texts.