Transfer Learning for Socioeconomic Estimation in Forced-Displacement Settings

Poverty statistics guide social policy, but in many low- and middle-income countries, censuses and household surveys that collect these data are costly, infrequent, quickly outdated, and sometimes error-prone. Satellite imagery offers global coverage and the possibility of predicting economic livelihoods at scale, yet existing approaches to predicting livelihoods with imagery or other non-traditional data often fail to reliably identify local-level variation and, as we show, degrade under temporal shift. Here we introduce Tempov, a satellite foundation model pretrained by self-supervision on three million bi-temporal Landsat pairs and adapted with parameter-efficient fine-tuning to sparse survey labels. The model enables large-scale, high-resolution wealth mapping and dynamic measurement, including zero-shot nowcasting up to a decade after observed labels, retrospective hindcasting, and decadal change tracking, while outperforming existing neural network and geospatial foundation-model baselines. In low-label regimes, Tempov achieves competitive accuracy with only 10% of survey samples, indicating substantially reduced dependence on expensive label collection. The model further generalizes across populous countries within and outside Africa, and scales to a unified Africa-wide model with strong continent-level performance ($R^2=0.63$, $r^2=0.68$), from which we generate high-resolution decadal maps of wealth and wealth changes for the African continent. Analysis of these maps shows large variation in recent economic performance both within and across countries. Our open-source approach provides a pathway to timely, scalable, low-cost monitoring of wealth and poverty from routinely collected satellite data.

We investigate whether socioeconomic indicators, like household wealth, leave recoverable informational imprints in both satellite imagery (capturing features like buildings and roads) and Internet-sourced text (reflecting historical, cultural, and narratives of neighborhoods). Using DHS data from African neighborhoods (clusters), we pair high-resolution Landsat images with textual descriptions generated by LLMs conditioned on location/year, plus text retrieved by an LLM-driven AI Search Agent from web sources. We develop a multimodal framework that predicts household wealth (International Wealth Index; IWI) via five pipelines: (i) a vision model on satellite images, (ii) an LLM using only location and year, (iii) an AI agent that searches and synthesizes web text, (iv) a joint image-text encoder, and (v) an ensemble of all signals. Our framework yields three contributions. First, evaluations show that fusing vision and agent/LLM-generated text improves on vision-only baselines in wealth prediction (e.g., R-squared of 0.77 vs. 0.63 on out-of-sample splits), with LLM-internal knowledge (artificial neural memory) proving surprisingly predictive in out-of-country/time generalization. Second, we find suggestive evidence of partial representational alignment: fused embeddings from vision and language modalities correlate moderately (median cosine similarity across modalities of about 0.60 after alignment). This pattern is broadly consistent with the Platonic Representation Hypothesis, but does not by itself establish convergence to a single shared latent representation. Because agent-retrieved data yields only marginal and unstable gains across splits, our evidence for the Agent-Induced Novelty Hypothesis is limited. Third, we release a large-scale multimodal dataset of about 60,000 DHS clusters, each linked to satellite images, LLM-generated descriptions, and AI-agent-retrieved texts.

Accurate modeling of human mobility is critical for tackling urban planning and public health challenges. In undeveloped regions, the absence of comprehensive travel surveys necessitates reconstructing mobility networks from publicly available data. Here we develop neuroGravity, a physics-informed deep learning model that reliably reconstructs mobility flows from limited observations and transfers to unobserved cities. Using only urban facility and population distributions, we find that neuroGravity's regional representations strongly correlate with socioeconomic and livability status, offering scalable proxies for costly surveys. Furthermore, we uncover that spatial income segregation plays a key role in model transferability: mobility networks are most reliably reconstructed when target cities share similar segregation levels with the source. We design an index to quantify this segregation and accurately predict transferability. Finally, we generate mobility flow proxies for over 1,200 cities worldwide, highlighting neuroGravity's potential to mitigate critical data shortages in resource-limited, underdeveloped areas.