Recursive Quantum Long Short-Term Memory for Stable Short-Horizon Temperature Forecasting

Recent advances in quantum computing and machine learning have motivated the development of quantum models for sequential data processing. In this paper, we propose a Recursive Quantum Long Short-Term Memory model, or Recursive QLSTM, which extends QLSTM through metacore-based recursive constructions. We numerically test the model under different input sequence lengths, metacore designs, and recursive rules, and identify the best-performing architecture among these variants. For this selected model, we further provide theoretical arguments explaining why its recursive structure improves temporal information propagation and enhances learning performance. Our results suggest that Recursive QLSTM offers a flexible and effective framework for quantum recurrent learning over input time series of various lengths.

Accurate and efficient time-series forecasting remains a challenging problem for both classical and quantum neural architectures, particularly in multivariate environmental settings. This work adapts the Quantum Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (QLIF) spiking neural network for time-series regression tasks, specifically short-term multivariate weather forecasting. We extend QLIF beyond classification and demonstrate its applicability to continuous-valued prediction problems. The QLIF-CAST model encodes neuron excitation states as single-qubit quantum superpositions, driven by Rx rotation gates and T1 relaxation decay, and is embedded within a hybrid quantum-classical recurrent architecture. We conduct two distinct evaluations. First, a controlled comparison against a parameter-matched classical LIF baseline on a multivariate weather dataset shows that QLIF-CAST achieves 15.4% lower MSE and 4.4% lower MAE, demonstrating that quantum neuronal dynamics reduce prediction error over classical equivalents. Second, a cross-domain comparative analysis with state-of-the-art quantum LSTM (QLSTM) and quantum neural network (QNN) models on air quality and wind speed benchmarks reveals that QLIF-CAST converges in up to 94% less training time, occupying a distinct position in the speed-error trade-off space. Hardware verification on IBM Marrakesh (156-qubit QPU) confirms reliable circuit execution with only 1.2% average deviation from simulation.

Variational quantum circuits train poorly on chaotic forecasting, usually blamed on barren plateaus (exponentially vanishing gradients). Using an exactly simulable four-qubit variational quantum physics-informed circuit fit to Lorenz-63, we show the barren-plateau explanation fails: the failure is an architectural capacity ceiling fixed by the circuit time-encoding, not its trainable depth. Four measurements support this. (i) A McClean-comparable gradient-variance estimator sits at the local-cost Haar/2-design scale 2^(-2n)=3.9e-3 at n=4; on structurally live parameters it decays about ninefold with depth then saturates there, large enough to train, not an exponential collapse. (ii) At a common budget of 200 optimiser iterations (600, in three stages, for layer-wise), gradient descent, layer-wise, and SPSA reach the same order of magnitude of loss, so no optimiser unlocks a better basin. (iii) The output-Jacobian rank saturates at 33 from five layers on, so depth buys no new output directions. (iv) A Fourier analysis explains why: the qubit-1 phase encoding acts on the initial |0> and is inert, so the maximum accessible frequency is 2.5/t_max=0.83 Hz, identical at every depth and about 4.4x below the narrowest Lorenz component bandwidth. The corrected band has dimension 1+2x5=11 per observable, and 3x11=33 equals the measured rank ceiling exactly, unifying the two diagnostics. A trained depth sweep agrees: mean loss improves with depth then flattens once the rank saturates. We correct our earlier preprint diagnosis, which compared unnormalised gradient norms to the McClean threshold, and place the advantage of fixed reservoirs and classical echo-state networks in architecture, not quantum mechanics.