Inference of Unknown Dynamical Components Using Next Generation Reservoir Computing: From Chaotic Systems to Climate Data

We propose a dual-channel reservoir-computing scheme for inferring the dynamics of two distinct chaotic systems with a single machine. By augmenting a standard reservoir with a system-label channel and a parameter-control channel, the machine can be trained from time series collected from a few sampled states of the two systems. We show that the trained machine not only predicts the short-time evolution of the sampled states, but also reproduces the long-term statistical properties of unseen states, thereby enabling reconstruction of the bifurcation diagrams of both systems from partial observations. The effectiveness of the scheme is demonstrated for the Lorenz and Rössler systems in numerical simulations and for the Chua and Rossler circuits in experiments. Functional-network analysis further shows that the two target systems are encoded by distinct dynamical patterns in the reservoir. These results extend multifunctional and parameter-aware reservoir computing, and provide a route to data-driven inference of multiple nonlinear systems using a single machine.

We present an adaptive reservoir computing framework for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz benchmark, which evaluates machine learning models across twelve distinct tasks spanning five qualitatively different scenarios: baseline forecasting, noisy signal reconstruction, forecasting under noise, few-shot learning, and parametric generalization. Rather than applying a uniform inference strategy, we tailor the training and prediction procedure of Echo State Networks (ESNs) to the specific demands of each evaluation scenario. Our key contributions are fourfold: (1) exact reservoir state synchronization that eliminates warmup approximation error in short-time prediction; (2) histogram-guided candidate selection that directly optimizes the long-time ergodic evaluation metric; (3) multi-seed reservoir search for few-shot regimes with severely limited training data; and (4) sequential multi-sequence training that resolves state-distribution mismatch in parametric generalization tasks. The proposed framework achieves a score of 74.91 on the public benchmark leaderboard, demonstrating that carefully adapted reservoir computing constitutes a competitive and computationally efficient approach for diverse chaotic system modeling challenges.

Understanding how training shapes the geometry of recurrent network dynamics is a central problem in time-series modeling. We study the emergence of low-dimensional dominant manifolds in the training of Reservoir Computing (RC) networks for temporal forecasting tasks. For a general linear continuous-time reservoir in the infinite-data limit, we show that the training data generate an invariant subspace of the trained reservoir, whose dimension equals the number of dominant modes. We then specialize to a simplified diagonal linear reservoir, where we link the dominant eigenvalues and eigenvectors to the spectrum of a backward Dynamic Mode Decomposition matrix, which yields a finite-dimensional approximation of the backward-time Koopman operator of the system generating the training data. We illustrate the emergence of these dominant modes during training in simulation, and discuss how the analysis may be extended to nonlinear RC via tangent dynamics and differential p-dominance.