Marginal Log-Likelihood Increments under Dirichlet-Smoothed Markov Estimation

Objective Prediction models are commonly trained using objectives such as Bernoulli negative log-likelihood (NLL), although downstream clinical decisions may depend on specific risk thresholds. We introduce Smooth Net Benefit ($\sigma$NB), a differentiable approximation of Net Benefit designed to align model training with threshold-specific clinical utility. Materials and Methods We evaluated $\sigma$NB as a training objective for logistic regression, generalized additive models (GAMs), and XGBoost with three Hessian implementations. Experiments used the Framingham cardiovascular risk dataset and 44 TabZilla datasets comprising 72 dataset-threshold combinations. Results $\sigma$NB training did not consistently improve Net Benefit in Framingham. Across the TabZilla benchmark, mean standardized Net Benefit for logistic regression increased from 0.5669 with NLL to 0.5765 with $\sigma$NB (mean difference 0.0096, 95% CI -0.0001 to 0.0193). For GAMs, mean standardized Net Benefit decreased from 0.5921 to 0.5625 (mean difference -0.0296, 95% CI -0.0721 to 0.0129). For XGBoost, NLL achieved 0.6745 compared with 0.6723--0.6735 across $\sigma$NB implementations. In logistic regression, $\sigma$NB gains were positively associated with the performance advantage of XGBoost over NLL-trained logistic regression. Discussion The effect of $\sigma$NB was context dependent, with modest gains concentrated in logistic regression and little benefit for more flexible model classes. This suggests that decision-focused optimization may be most useful when limited model flexibility leaves greater scope for improvement. Conclusion Our results do not support $\sigma$NB as a general replacement for NLL training, but support further investigation of decision-focused objectives in settings where conventional likelihood-based training may not adequately capture decision-relevant structure.

Deployed knowledge-tracing models are typically frozen after training, yet systematic per-item logit bias arises, from limited per-item expressivity in backbone architectures and from post-deployment shifts in item properties, degrading prediction quality. Global post-hoc calibrators such as Platt scaling, temperature scaling, and isotonic regression improve probability estimates but leave discriminative ability, as measured by AUC, unchanged. This AUC invariance is a structural consequence of monotone score-only transforms; recovering the stranded discrimination requires conditioning on item identity. We propose SLC (State-space Logit Correction), which converts binary observations to Gaussian pseudo-observations via Laplace/IRLS, applies empirical-Bayes shrinkage through a Kalman smoother, and fits an offset-Platt link. The state-space formulation also yields a detectability bound that characterizes the Bernoulli information floor, explaining why temporal tracking provides no benefit at current data densities. Across four datasets, five backbones, and three seeds, SLC improves AUC on all four datasets and NLL on three, with the advantage concentrating on sparse items. Cross-domain controls suggest that the same phenomenon can arise beyond education when the deployed backbone leaves entity-level bias.

We study the coupled objective J_K^WOR = E_{S ~ PL-WOR_K}[max_{i in S} R_i]: the expected maximum reward of a size-K Plackett-Luce draw without replacement, the law of Gumbel-Top-K / Stochastic Beam Search decoding. This estimand differs from the conventional i.i.d. objective J_K^iid = E[max_{i<=K} R_i] targeted by existing sample-reuse Max@K estimators, and reusing their i.i.d. weights under the coupled sampler is provably biased (a closed-form three-item instance gives E[g_iid] = (4/5) grad J_K^WOR exactly; pass@K under the coupled sampler is the binary-reward special case). Generic joint-score REINFORCE is already unbiased for J_K^WOR; what it lacks is sample reuse. Our contribution is to instantiate standard rank-conditioned Horvitz-Thompson estimation for the J_K^WOR subset total: from one Gumbel-Top-n pool (n>K) and its observed priority threshold we build an estimator that reuses all C(n,K) embedded K-subsets, unbiased with an unbiased exact score-function surrogate gradient, plus a reward-sorted Max-specific dynamic program that collapses the C(n,K)-term subset sum (with K!-cost set probabilities) exactly to a one-dimensional integral. A fixed-Q quadrature evaluation costs O(n log n + nKQ) arithmetic and is numerically, not algebraically, exact; no epsilon-approximation rate is certified. Each nonzero degree-K Horvitz-Thompson term has finite second moment exactly when n >= 2K; under the same assumptions the full surrogate gradient has finite second moment whenever n >= 2K (sharpness there is open). At K=1 the construction recovers classical priority sampling. All quantities require only the values and differentiable computation graphs of the n+1 drawn items' probabilities, so finite structured sequence policies sampled by exact SBS are covered. A certified finite-Q quadrature bound and countably infinite support remain open. Validation code is included as ancillary files.