Active Client Selection in Federated Trajectory Prediction with Uncertainty-Awareness and Heterogeneous Complexity

Federated Learning enables collaborative model training across decentralized data sources without data transfer. Averaging-based FL is limited by the presence of non-IID data, which negatively impacts convergence speed and final model accuracy. Conventional alternatives suffer from significant inefficiency. Clients with noisy or highly heterogeneous data contribute expensive gradient computations that are either discarded or heavily down-weighted before aggregation. These reactive approaches waste computational resources, require more communication rounds and result in unnecessary privacy exposure. In this paper, we propose a proactive client selection framework that aims to find an optimal federation of clients whose combined data match utility and fairness requirements before training begins. Our method relies on mutual information computed from differentially private contingency tables to quantify the relevance of cross-feature correlations in the union dataset. We introduce a Potential Federation Loss (PFL) over the set of fixed-size federations, which balances two objectives. Maximizing collective data utility while ensuring fair cross-features correlations to prevent group unfairness. Client selection is expressed as an optimal subset search problem over the PFL objective, which we solve using simulated annealing under strong differential privacy guarantees for clients' local statistics. Experimental results on four benchmarks show faster, fairer, and more accurate models trained on optimally found federations, compared to uniform sampling, even when state-of-the-art adaptive aggregation or sampling strategies are employed.

Accurate trajectory prediction is fundamentally challenging due to high scene heterogeneity - the severe variance in motion velocity, spatial density, and interaction patterns across different real-world environments. However, most existing approaches typically train a single unified model, expecting a fixed-capacity architecture to generalize universally across all possible scenarios. This conventional model-centric paradigm is fundamentally flawed when confronting such extreme heterogeneity, inevitably leading to a severe generalization gap, degraded accuracy, and massive computational waste. To overcome this bottleneck, rather than refining restricted model-centric architectures, we propose selective learning, a novel scene-centric paradigm. It explicitly analyzes the characteristics of the underlying scene to dynamically route inputs to the most appropriate expert models. As a concrete implementation of this paradigm, we introduce SceneSelect. Specifically, SceneSelect utilizes unsupervised clustering on interpretable geometric and kinematic features to discover a latent scene taxonomy. A highly decoupled classification module is then trained to assign real-time inputs to these scene categories, and a highly extensible, plug-and-play scheduling policy automatically dispatches the trajectory sequence to the optimal expert predictor. Crucially, this decoupled design ensures excellent generalization capabilities, allowing seamless integration with different off-the-shelf models and robust adaptation across new datasets without requiring computationally expensive joint retraining. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks (ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms strong single-model and ensemble baselines, achieving an average improvement of 10.5%, showcasing the effectiveness of scene-aware selective learning.

Communication-efficient federated optimization commonly spends several gradient evaluations between server updates. Existing local-update methods use this computation to advance an independent model on each client. Under heterogeneous data, however, these models evaluate gradients at different locations, making the aggregated update difficult to interpret as a gradient of the global objective. We study an alternative use of the same computation budget: \emph{evaluate the global objective along a shared, predicted path}. We propose Common-Trajectory Predictive Federated Learning (\texttt{CTP-FL}). At each round, all clients construct the same sequence of query points from the current global model and the previous aggregated direction, evaluate $K$ stochastic gradients along this sequence, and upload their average. The server then performs a single global update. Thus, \texttt{CTP-FL} uses $K$ mini-batch gradients per client and one model-sized vector in each communication direction, matching the per-round computation and communication of full-participation FedAvg-M. Shared query points make the aggregated direction an unbiased estimator of the average \emph{global} gradient along the predicted path. The remaining discrepancy from the gradient at the current model is controlled by the path length, without assuming bounded client-gradient dissimilarity or bounded gradients. For smooth non-convex objectives, we establish an $\mathcal{O}\!\left( \sqrt{LΔσ^2/(NKR)}+LΔ/R \right)$ average-stationarity bound under full participation. The analysis isolates a testable trade-off: extending the prediction path provides more forward-looking gradient information but increases its displacement bias.