Trajectory Forecasting

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3 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Protocol before progress: leakage-aware evaluation of AIS trajectory prediction
Sep 22, 2026Zobeir Raisi, Vali Mohammad Nazarzehi HadTrajectory Forecasting Automatic Identification System
Marine Engineering Faculty, Chabahar Maritime University, Shahid Rigi Blvd., Chabahar, 99717778631, Iran
Kernel-Based Metrics Learning for Uncertain Opponent Vehicle Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Racing
Sep 15, 2026Hojin Lee, Youngim Nam, Sanghun Lee +1Autonomous Racing Trajectory Forecasting
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, 44919, Republic of Korea
MC-DeTra: Motion-Consistent Joint Object Detection and Socially-Aware Trajectory Forecasting in Bird's-Eye-View Images
Sep 11, 2026Vladislav Diuzhev, Dmitry YudinTrajectory Forecasting Bird'S-Eye View
Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow, Russia · Artificial Intelligence Research Institute, Moscow, Russia
Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction: Bridging Long Horizons via Dynamical Guidance
Aug 4, 2026Xiucong Zhao, Jindong Tian, Hao MiaoTrajectory Forecasting Long-Horizon Forecasting
1Xi’an Jiaotong University · 2East China Normal University · 3Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Vessel Trajectory Prediction using COLREGs-aware Optimal Planning
Jul 17, 2026David Kaikkonen, Fredrik Ljungberg, Erik FriskTrajectory Forecasting Maritime Navigation
ABB Corporate Research, Västerås, Sweden · Department of Electrical Engineering, Linköping University, Sweden
SWIFT: A Small-World Interaction Framework for Flow-Aware Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving
Jul 3, 2026Chengyue Wang, Bin Rao, Haicheng Liao +3Accurate Traffic Forecasting Trajectory Forecasting
State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau
Towards Metric-Agnostic Trajectory Forecasting
Jul 1, 2026Markus Knoche, Daan de Geus, Bastian LeibeTrajectory Forecasting Ego-Trajectory Prediction
RWTH Aachen University, Germany · Eindhoven University of Technology, Netherlands
Rethinking Training & Inference for Forecasting: Linking Winner-Take-All back to GMMs
Jun 24, 2026Qiyuan Wu, Katie Z Luo, Bharath Hariharan +2Trajectory Forecasting Posterior
Cornell University · Stanford University · Boston University
Mind the Noise: Sensitivity of Transformer-based Interaction-Aware Trajectory Prediction Models to Noisy Data
Jun 19, 2026Shahab Salehi, Luca Lusvarghi, Miguel Sepulcre +1Trajectory Forecasting Noisy Data
Networked Systems Lab, Universidad Miguel Hernandez de Elche, Elche, Spain
Continuous-Time Probabilistic Correctors for Uncertainty-Aware Physics-Based Spacecraft Trajectory Forecasting
Jun 19, 2026Muhammad Bilal Shahid, Zhanhong Jiang, Soumik Sarkar +1Trajectory Forecasting Near-Earth Objects
Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, 50011, USA
EnvShip-Bench: An Environment-Enhanced Benchmark for Short-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction
Jun 13, 2026Kun Ma, Qilong Han, Chengjing Song +3Maritime Navigation Trajectory Forecasting
Harbin Engineering University Harbin, China · Politecnico di Torino Turin, Italy · Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing, China
Short-Horizon Position Accuracy of Single-Track Models: Implications for Motion Planning of Autonomous Vehicles
Jun 12, 2026Aron J. Aertssen, Lars A. T. H. van Alen, Igo J. M. Besselink +2Vehicle Dynamics Trajectory Forecasting
1) Department of Mechanical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Groene Loper 3, 5612 AE Eindhoven, The Netherlands · 2) Safety & Driver Controls Group, Vehicle Development, DAF Trucks N.V., Hugo van der Goeslaan 1, 5643 TW Eindhoven, The Netherlands
From Cues to Horizons: Dynamic Risk Horizon Profiling for Trajectory Prediction
May 30, 2026Xinyi Ning, Zilin Bian, Dachuan Zuo +2Trajectory Forecasting Crashes
Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, New York University. · Department of Civil Engineering Technology and Environmental Management Safety, Rochester Institute of Technology.
MC-Risk: Multi-Component Risk Fields for Risk Identification and Motion Planning
May 20, 2026Maximilian Link, Yingjie Xu, Yingbai Hu +1Risk Motion Planning
Technical University of Munich · Munich, Germany · The Chinese University of Hong Kong +3
Spatially Prompted Visual Trajectory Prediction for Egocentric Manipulation
May 19, 2026Yifan Li, Xinyu Zhou, Yunhao Ge +2Egocentric Vision End-Effector Pose
Michigan State University · NVIDIA Research
Learning-Accelerated Optimization-based Trajectory Planning for Cooperative Aerial-Ground Handover Missions
May 19, 2026Jingshan Chen, Bochen Yu, Henrik Ebel +1Cooperative Air Combat Robust Trajectory
Institute of Engineering and Computational Mechanics, University of Stuttgart, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany · Mechanical Engineering, LUT University, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Motion-Uncertainty-Aware Next-Best-View Planning for Moving Object Reconstruction
May 17, 2026Karen Li, Mattia Mantovani, Robert J. Wood +23D Reconstruction Viewpoint-Dependent Active Perception
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02134, USA. · University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 42122 Reggio Emilia, Italy.
Social-Mamba: Socially-Aware Trajectory Forecasting with State-Space Models
May 14, 2026Po-Chien Luan, Wuyang Li, Yang Gao +1Trajectory Forecasting State Space Models
EPFL, Switzerland
Encore: Conditioning Trajectory Forecasting via Biased Ego Rehearsals
May 12, 2026Conghao Wong, Ziqian Zou, Xinge YouEgo-Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Forecasting
Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China.
SceneSelect: Selective Learning for Trajectory Scene Classification and Expert Scheduling
Apr 27, 2026Xinrun Wang, Deshun Xia, Yuxi Sun +1Trajectory Forecasting Scene Understanding
School of Computer Science, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) · School of Information Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University of Technology
Collaborative Trajectory Prediction via Late Fusion
Apr 24, 2026Nadya Abdel Madjid, Murad Mebrahtu, Zakhar Yagudin +5Trajectory Forecasting Ego-Trajectory Prediction
Khalifa University, Computer Science, Abu Dhabi, UAE · Khalifa University, KUCARS-KU Center for Autonomous Robotic Systems, Department of Computer Science, Abu Dhabi, UAE · Khalifa University, Computer and Information Engineering, Abu Dhabi, UAE +2
Frozen LLMs as Map-Aware Spatio-Temporal Reasoners for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction
Apr 23, 2026Yanjiao Liu, Jiawei Liu, Xun Gong +1Autonomous Driving Trajectory Forecasting
School of Artificial Intelligence, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, PR China.
EdgeVTP: Exploration of Latency-efficient Trajectory Prediction for Edge-based Embedded Vision Applications
Apr 18, 2026Seungjin Kim, Reza Jafarpourmarzouni, Christopher Neff +2Trajectory Forecasting Automotive Detection
University of Wyoming · University of North Carolina at Charlotte · North Carolina A&T State University
Reverberation: Learning the Latencies Before Forecasting Trajectories
Nov 14, 2025Conghao Wong, Ziqian Zou, Beihao Xia +1Trajectory Forecasting Reverberation
Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China
NeMo-map: Neural Implicit Flow Fields for Spatio-Temporal Motion Mapping
Oct 16, 2025Yufei Zhu, Shih-Min Yang, Andrey Rudenko +3Spatiotemporal Representations Human Motion
Orebro University, Sweden · Technical University of Munich, Germany · Aalto University, Finland

Sep 22, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Protocol before progress: leakage-aware evaluation of AIS trajectory prediction

Zobeir Raisi, Vali Mohammad Nazarzehi Had

Marine Engineering Faculty, Chabahar Maritime University, Shahid Rigi Blvd., Chabahar, 99717778631, Iran

Trajectory Forecasting Automatic Identification System Leakage Protocol Encoders Ultrasound

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Reported gains in vessel-trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data are credited to new architectures, but the evaluation protocol is rarely measured as a source of error reduction. We build a leakage-aware protocol with vessel-, time- and region-disjoint splits and apply it to two corpora with different traffic: 31 days of Danish national AIS traffic and 30 days of US Gulf coast traffic off Houston and Galveston. On both, we audit TrAISformer, GATransformer, and controlled AISFormer-inspired reconstructions. Three protocol effects appear in both corpora. First, TrAISformer's best-of-16 oracle decoder lowers error by a factor of 2.1-3.2 relative to greedy decoding. Second, a split that shares vessels lowers its greedy error by 23-25% at one hour, against 2% or less for a compact 0.43 M-parameter encoder. Third, a region-disjoint split raises TrAISformer's one-hour error from 2.2 to 24.6 km on the US corpus, because 99.9% of the test contexts fall in longitude bins never seen in training; the encoder built on local offsets is unaffected by this. Architectural mechanisms matter less: GATransformer's graph attention gives no measurable benefit on either corpus, while its waterway feature is worth 12-22%. The effect of a time-disjoint split is not stable across corpora (13% versus 2%). We release the splits and code.

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