Trajectory Prediction

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Overview

Trajectory prediction estimates future paths from past motion and cues such as maps, goals, other agents, and environmental conditions. Common methods include Transformers, graph neural networks, and state-space models, alongside probabilistic approaches such as variational autoencoders, diffusion, and flow matching that represent multiple possible futures. Physics-based models, retrieval, and language or vision-language models are also used, especially when forecasts must support planning or work across domains. A central challenge is balancing accuracy and efficient inference with calibrated uncertainty, realistic and safe behavior, and reliable performance under distribution shifts; displacement benchmarks alone may not capture success in closed-loop settings.

Latest papers

CardsList

187 papers19 papers in the last four weeks, down 14% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Learning the 4D World through Point Trajectory Forecasting

    Oct 20, 2026Byungwoo Jeon, Sunghwan Hong, Dohyeon Kim +103D Scene PredictionMulti-View Video Generation

    KAIST · ETH Zürich · Seoul National University +3

  2. What Does History Add? Calendar Controls and Information-Timing Audits for University Trajectory Forecasting

    Oct 15, 2026Zepei CaoEducationTrajectory Prediction

    East China Normal University

  3. Selective Next-Location Prediction with MetaModelSelect: A Lightweight Post-Hoc Confidence Metamodel

    Oct 14, 2026Calvin Jary, Nafiseh KahaniSelective PredictionPost-Hoc Calibration

    Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

  4. Back to the Future: Reverse-Consequence Modeling for Long-Horizon Particle Dynamics

    Oct 13, 2026Leyan Zhang, Nantian He, Jiajun Ma +2Trajectory PredictionDiffusion Models for Motion Generation

    Shanghai Jiaotong University

  5. Physics-Aware Object-Centric SE(3) Forecasting for Real-Time Proactive Dynamic Grasping

    Oct 13, 2026Yirui Zhou, Hongli Xu, Ying Zheng +2Robotic GraspingDynamic Robotic Manipulation

    The Hong Kong Polytechnic University · Technical University of Munich

  6. Box-WAM: Box Trajectories as Compact State Representations for World Action Models

    Oct 13, 2026Qinxi Yu, Wenzhou Ding, Gloria X. Wang +2World Action ModelsWorld Models for Robotics

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

  7. ReForesight: Occlusion-Robust Re-Identification and Future Occupancy Forecasting for Dynamic Semantic Mapping

    Oct 12, 2026Didar Seyidov, Faith Ogunwoye, Hajira Amjad +3Query Re-IdentificationTrajectory Prediction

    Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russia · 168robotics, Moscow, Russia

  8. JtT: Rethinking Point Trajectory Diffusion for Diverse and Rigid Motion from an Image

    Oct 12, 2026Gabrijel Boduljak, Yushi Lan, Christian Rupprecht +1Trajectory PredictionMotion Diffusion Models

    Visual Geometry Group, University of Oxford

  9. Multi-modal Representation Fusion for Long-term Microsurgical Anastomosis Trajectory Anticipation

    Oct 10, 2026Yuxuan Liu, Yating Luo, Yunfei Luan +4Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

  10. Manifold Navigation Learning Using Recurrent Networks: Efficient Training Techniques

    Oct 9, 2026Sarah Harkins Dayton, Sathya Rengaswami, Vasileios Maroulas +2Trajectory PredictionRecurrent Neural Networks

    Department of Math, University of Tennessee. · U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command, Army Research Laboratory.

  11. Target-Constrained Pooling for Trajectory Extrapolation

    Oct 9, 2026Ning Wang, Claire Cardie, Sainyam GalhotraTrajectory Prediction

    Cornell University

  12. Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion

    Oct 8, 2026Zhiwei Xue, Jia Yue Kam, Jinhang Qiu +5Uncertainty CalibrationProbabilistic Trajectory Prediction

    National University of Singapore. · LAAS-CNRS. · Smart Systems Institute, NUS.

  13. Uncertainty-Aware Optimization for Physics-Aware Highway Trajectory Prediction

    Oct 8, 2026Aanchal Rajesh Chugh, Sebastian DornProbabilistic Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    Technische Hochschule Augsburg TTZ Landsberg am Lech

  14. Revisiting Numerical Forecasting Models for Language-Based Trajectory Prediction

    Oct 6, 2026JunGyu Lee, Inhwan Bae, Hae-Gon JeonReward ModelingRL for Language Models

    Yonsei University · DGIST

  15. MoCAR: Motion-code Coordinate-aware AutoRegression for Continuous Trajectory Forecasting

    Oct 5, 2026Yiming Xu, Hao Cheng, Monika SesterTrajectory GenerationTrajectory Representation Learning

    Institute of Cartography and Geoinformatics Leibniz University Hannover, 30167 Hannover, Germany · Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation University of Twente, 7522 NH Enschede, The Netherlands

  16. Markovian Dynamics Enforcer: Feasibility Preserving Correction on Learned Dynamics Manifolds

    Sep 30, 2026Kevin Yu, Tao Guo, Constantinos Antoniou +1Trajectory PredictionVehicle Trajectory Prediction

    Imperial College London, UK · Technical University of Munich, Germany

  17. Admissible Diffusion for Multimodal Interventional Trajectories

    Sep 28, 2026Xing Han, Shravan Chaudhari, Jiarui Shao +2Constrained Generative ModelingCausal Inference

    Johns Hopkins University · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Bayesian Health

  18. DevelopmentODE: Structured Neural ODEs for Early Brain Development Dynamics Across a Decade

    Sep 27, 2026Kaiqiao Han, Haitao Chen, Bryan Quah +5Trajectory PredictionNeural ODEs

    University of California, Los Angeles · Cedars-Sinai Medical Center · Emory University +1

  19. Learning response-aware patient dynamics for respiratory support

    Sep 26, 2026Xiaolei Lu, Shamim NematiTrajectory PredictionLatent Dynamics Modeling

  20. BranchDrive: A Branch-Structured Dataset for Action-Conditioned Driving Prediction

    Sep 23, 2026Feeza Khan Khanzada, Sudarshan Sridhar, Jaerock KwonAutonomous Driving DatasetsAutonomous Driving Benchmarks

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Michigan-Dearborn, 4901 Evergreen Rd, Dearborn, MI 48128, United States

  21. Steering Through Contact: A Finite-Support Motion Model for Single-Track Center-Articulated Robots

    Sep 20, 2026Mohamed Dhia Ounally, Nicolas Samson, Mathis Turgeon-Roy +3Robot Motion PredictionRobotics

    Norlab, Universit´e Laval, Qu´ebec, QC, Canada · TSCF, INRAE, Clermont-Ferrand, France

  22. MoWAM: Explicit Future Motion Prediction for Efficient World Action Models

    Sep 17, 2026Jiayu Wang, Bin Zhu, Yue Yu +1World Models for RoboticsWorld Model-Based Planning

    College of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · Singapore Management University, Singapore · Institute of Trustworthy Embodied AI, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

  23. Vehicle Trajectory Prediction via Neural Fusion of Multiple EKF-Based Trajectory Candidates

    Sep 17, 2026Seong-Jun Kim, Seung-Hyun KongTrajectory PredictionVehicle Trajectory Prediction

    CCS Graduate School of Mobility, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

  24. Kernel-Based Metrics Learning for Uncertain Opponent Vehicle Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Racing

    Sep 15, 2026Hojin Lee, Youngim Nam, Sanghun Lee +1Probabilistic Trajectory PredictionDeep Kernel Learning

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, 44919, Republic of Korea

  25. FlowATC: Aircraft Trajectory Prediction via Flow Matching

    Sep 15, 2026Mathurin Petit, Emir Torun, Louis Brusset +2Probabilistic Trajectory PredictionFlow Matching

    École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, 91128, France · Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, 10623, Germany · Mines Paris–PSL University, Paris, 75006, France +2

  26. UDAV: Uncertainty-Driven Adaptive VLM Waypoint Planner

    Sep 14, 2026Ghazal Farhani, Shabnam ShabaniUncertainty Estimation for VLA ModelsTrajectory Generation

    The authors are with the Automotive and Surface Transportation Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, London, Ontario, Canada.

  27. Drift Field Net: Learning Ocean Lagrangian advection fields from in-situ and satellite observations

    Sep 14, 2026Théo Archambault, Pierre Garcia, Mattia Romero +2Physics-Informed MLSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Amphitrite, Paris, France · Sorbonne Université, LIP6, Pequan, Paris, France · The Ocean Cleanup, Rotterdam, Netherlands +1

  28. MoveBench: A Benchmark for Global-Scale Wildlife Movement Forecasting

    Sep 14, 2026Justin Kay, Shir Bar, Ellen O. Aikens +28Forecasting BenchmarksProbabilistic Forecasting

    MIT · University of Wyoming · Marburg University, Hessian.AI +16

  29. LLaTSA: Large Language Model-Aligned General-Purpose Transient Stability Analysis

    Sep 13, 2026Chao Shen, Hongwei Zhen, Junyan Shao +3Power SystemsTrajectory Prediction

  30. Enhancing Human Mobility Prediction with Spatially Aware LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems

    Sep 13, 2026Shangyu Lou, Ziqi CuiTrajectory PredictionSpatial Reasoning

    University of California & Santa Barbara & San Diego State University California, USA · Politecnico di Milano Milan, Italy