Cost-Sensitive Online Window Size Selection for Portfolio Management

Regret is the cost of uncertainty in algorithmic decision-making. Quantifying regret typically requires computationally expensive simulation via Sample Average Approximation (SAA), with complexity $\mathcal{O}(Bn^{2}d^{3})$ in the number of scenarios $B$, variables $n$, and constraints $d$. % This paper proves that expected regret in any stochastic optimization problem admits the exact decomposition % \begin{equation*} \mathrm{Regret}(c) = \mathrm{Cov}(c,,π^{}(c)) + R(c), \end{equation} % where $c$ is the vector of uncertain parameters, $π^{*}(c)$ is the optimal decision, and $R(c)$ is a residual whose magnitude we bound explicitly under Lipschitz, smooth, and strongly convex conditions. % For linear programs and unconstrained quadratic programs, including the classical Markowitz portfolio problem, we prove $R(c)=0$ exactly, so that $\mathrm{Regret}(c) = \mathrm{Cov}(c,π^{*}(c))$ holds without approximation. % When historical cost-decision pairs $\{(c_i, π^*(c_i))\}$ are available, the covariance can be estimated in $\mathcal{O}(nd^{2})$ time, which is orders of magnitude faster than SAA. The estimation is performed by a single pass through the data. % We derive concentration bounds, a central limit theorem, and an asymptotically unbiased residual estimator, and we validate all results on synthetic LP, QP, and integer programming instances and on a rolling-window portfolio experiment using ten years of CRSP equity data.

A score-driven filter multiplies its scaled log-likelihood score by a scale parameter. We call this coefficient the gain and learn it online. Given the current state and realised scaled score, each admissible gain selects a reachable next state and predictive density. A scalar gain moves along a line; diagonal gains control coordinatewise transmission and may change direction. We evaluate gain selection using a one-step predictive Kullback-Leibler objective. In the scalar unscaled case, the negative consecutive-score product is a stochastic gradient; the positive product used in accelerated recursions is a descent direction. Positive scalar score scaling changes only the effective learning rate. Strictly increasing, continuously differentiable gain links with positive derivative induce mirror-descent geometry, while persistence adds a Bregman pull towards a reference gain. Under convexity, compactness, integrability, and schedule conditions, projected and discounted mirror updates satisfy dynamic-regret bounds relative to time-varying, current-information comparators. Simulations isolate score scaling, link geometry, persistence, and coordinatewise gains. Across twelve equity indices, the bounded discounted-logistic gain records a lower out-of-sample mean negative log score than the constant gain in eleven markets, although market-level evidence is mixed. It also avoids the extreme transients of the numerically capped exponential-link benchmark.

We study constrained online convex optimization with adversarial constraints and conditionally unbiased, finite-variance observations of constraint values and gradients. Under common feasibility, our \LEDGER\ algorithm attains $O(\sqrt T)$ expected regret and $O(\sqrt{T\log(eT)})$ expected budget violation, the largest cumulative overspend over any window. It uses a reflected exponential potential, clipped signed observations, and predictable adaptive regularization, with one feedback triple and one projection per round. Neither a Slater condition, independence between feedback channels, nor an absolute constraint-value bound is needed. A Gaussian testing lower bound proves that the budget rate has optimal horizon dependence under square-root regret at fixed positive noise, including the logarithm. The same obstruction holds for terminal violation, so the logarithm is not a cost of maximizing over windows; an $O(\sqrt T)$ budget bound instead forces linear regret. In contrast, fixed positive Gaussian value noise yields a joint regret--hard-violation lower bound of $Ω(\min\{σ,1\}T/\log^2 T)$, even with exact gradients in one dimension. The hard-violation construction matches arbitrarily many moments while preserving a feasible-endpoint gap and constant endpoint probabilities. Together, the bounds separate uncertainty about hard feasibility from learnable signed budgets. Deterministic restarts remove the horizon input without changing either upper rate.