Learning to Bias: Machine Learning-Enhanced Particle Filters

Data assimilation models state dynamics conditioned on sequential observations, and has wide-ranging scientific applications. In the filtering setting, the goal is to model the posterior over the current state given all observations so far. Classical solutions typically make simplifying distributional or functional assumptions, e.g., linear-Gaussian systems, which can be inaccurate in many scenarios. In principle, particle filters (PFs) remove these assumptions, yet often collapse in high dimensions. Recent generative approaches learn conditional state transitions, but without principled Bayesian updates they do not recover the correct filtering posterior and can accumulate error over long horizons. In this work, we introduce Flow Proposal Particle Filters (FPPF), which learn a conditional generative model based proposal approximating the variance-minimizing optimal proposal for particle propagation. Conditioning on observations steers particles toward high-likelihood regions before weighting, reducing weight variance and delaying degeneracy. Since our proposal admits tractable likelihood evaluation, FPPF computes accurate importance weights and retains a Bayesian update step. We further extend FPPF to high-dimensional problems through localization strategies, adressing another standard PF failure mode. Extensive experiments on a variety of dynamical systems show that FPPF outperforms statistical baselines and other generative methods in non-linear, non-Gaussian, and high-dimensional regimes.

Bayesian filtering is a well-known problem that aims to estimate plausible states of a dynamical system from observations. Among existing approaches to solve this problem, particle filters are theoretically exact for non-linear dynamics and observations, but suffer from poor scalability in high dimensions. In this work, we show that diffusion-based emulators of dynamical systems can be used to implement, without additional training, an optimal variant of particle filters that has remained largely unexplored due to implementation challenges with classical numerical solvers. Experiments on nonlinear chaotic systems, including atmospheric dynamics, demonstrate that the proposed approach successfully scales particle filtering to high-dimensional settings.

Learning-based methods commonly treat state estimation in robotics as a sequence modeling problem. While this paradigm can be effective at maximizing end-to-end performance, models are often difficult to interpret and expensive to train, since training requires unrolling sequences of predictions in time. As an alternative to end-to-end trained state estimation, we propose a novel particle filtering algorithm in which models are trained from individual state transitions, fully exploiting the Markov property in robotic systems. In this framework, measurement models are learned implicitly by minimizing a denoising score matching objective. At inference, the learned denoiser is used alongside a (learned) dynamics model to approximately solve the Bayesian filtering equation at each time step, effectively guiding predicted states toward the data manifold informed by measurements. We evaluate the proposed method on challenging robotic state estimation tasks in simulation, demonstrating competitive performance compared to tuned end-to-end trained baselines. Importantly, our method offers the desirable composability of classical filtering algorithms, allowing prior information and external sensor models to be incorporated without retraining.