Organizations: School of Artificial Intelligence, Hubei University · Key Laboratory of Intelligent Sensing System and Security (Hubei University), Ministry of Education · School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University · Baidu Inc. · Independent Researcher
Task performance need not determine which intervention mechanism an agent retains. We study causal retention: whether a frozen learned state answers a mechanism-probe map fixed independently of training, including action, context, direct target, value, and delay. For finite structural causal model classes, the optimal probe error is a Bayes decision risk. It vanishes exactly when every learning-interface fiber lies within one probe-answer fiber; any state obtained by post-processing that interface inherits the same lower bound. A posterior-coverage theorem characterizes budgeted retesting, while an exact edit decomposition shows that the shifted set is the unique support of an error-free target update. Causal Core implements these conditions through evidence-gated writing, readout filtering, temporal credit, hidden-context setup, and local diagnostic updates. Experiments cover finite causal systems, continuous simulators, an official TD-MPC2 world model, and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. A frozen Qwen last-layer probe reaches 0.958 balanced accuracy on source mechanisms but 0.583 on changed delays; the gated mechanism state reaches 1.000 and accepts only 0.056 of synchronized-readout candidates. In TD-MPC2, five target states per actuator recover effect-sign accuracy from 0.057 to 0.948 without degrading stable responses. Causal retention is therefore distinct from task sufficiency and source-domain decodability.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Interface collapse and causal retention. A task interface can merge probe-distinct SCMs. A refined interface retains the answer map and supports selective adaptation.
Figure 2: Fixed-probe target and adaptation outcomes.
Figure 3: Distributional TD-MPC2 responses under one actuator remapping.
Figure 4: Qwen hidden-state retention on held-out mechanism families.
Appendix figures & tables6 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Method
Target F1
FP
Readout FP
Hidden recall
Hidden FP
Causal Core context search
0.793
1.063
0.000
0.458
0.000
Conditional discovery, tuned
0.640
8.438
6.813
0.417
3.250
Conditional discovery, readout oracle
0.763
1.938
0.000
0.417
1.500
Tuple lift, tuned
0.650
8.000
7.438
0.479
10.875
Tuple lift, readout oracle
0.789
1.313
0.000
0.500
6.188
Latent world model, tuned
0.239
48.688
16.250
0.250
46.750
Appendix
Table 1: Matched finite-SCM baselines.
Task
Ranking signal
Ranking predictor
Causal Core
Noisy-hidden ranking
Source rank 0.521
Target F1 0.000 ; hidden 0.000
Target F1 0.764 ; hidden 0.672
Renamed adaptation
Source/target rank 0.865/0.500
AdaptScore 0.000
AdaptScore 1.000
Semantic-readout adaptation
Source/target rank 0.756/0.428
AdaptScore 0.000
AdaptScore 1.000
Appendix
Table 2: Ranking and selective-adaptation results.
We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.
Junlin Yang, Dylan Zhang, Xiangchen Song +7
Tsinghua University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · Carnegie Mellon University +2
Large language model agents rely on external harnesses to pass information between the model and its environment and to recover from execution errors. Yet recovery is usually judged only by average task success. This hides an important tension. The same operation can rescue a failing trajectory or disrupt one that would otherwise succeed. We frame recovery as a causal decision problem. Starting from the same execution state, we compare what happens with and without recovery, separate rescue from harm, and study how the value of recovery changes over time. We then introduce the Causal Intervention Router (CIR), a lightweight policy that uses information available before recovery to decide when intervention is worthwhile. On long-horizon ALFWorld tasks with Qwen3-14B, CIR raises success from 70.33% to 73.33%, a gain of 3.00 percentage points. It leaves all evaluated trajectories with correct observations untouched. Additional controls show that the benefit of recovery cannot be explained solely by the new observation returned by the environment. These results provide a practical way to evaluate recovery and apply it selectively.
Shuyao Xiao, Shengling Wang, Xuan Chen +7
School of Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Normal University · Ke Holdings
Memory-augmented large language models must decide which memories to retain, and recent systems do so by estimating each memory's effect on task performance. However, these estimates rely entirely on retrieved memories. When a memory is never retrieved, store-level interventions produce identical outcomes, leaving its utility unidentified. This is a retrieval-level positivity violation, invisible to diagnostics that examine only memory operations. We introduce Causal Memory Policy (CMP), a causal framework that restores identification by intervening on retrieval itself, reserving a fixed number of context slots for memories sampled with known propensities. CMP estimates memory utility by self-normalized inverse propensity weighting under a balanced assignment design. We prove the causal factorization of memory utility through retrieval, the unbiasedness and exact variance of the estimator, and the optimal decision rule under irreversible operations. Empirically, identification fails for 54% of required memories on LongMemEval and 67% on LoCoMo, and the failure persists in a deployed memory system. CMP improves discrimination between required and non-required memories from 0.54 to 0.66 AUC. Finally, we show that identified memory utility alone is insufficient for retention decisions: per-query utility reaches 0.78 AUC on the query for which it is estimated, yet no aggregation available to a retention policy predicts a memory's value on unseen queries. Code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/cmp-release-D0C3/.
Arman Behnam, Binghui Wang
Department of Computer Science Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago, IL