Towards Universal Representation-Based Process Control

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on single-case prefixes. Prior benchmarks show that machine learning and deep learning models provide only modest gains over statistical baselines, mainly due to the sparsity and heterogeneity of the DF time series. We investigate Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), large pre-trained models for generic time series, as an alternative for PMF. Using DF time series derived from real-life event logs, we compare zero-shot use of TSFMs, without additional training, with fine-tuned variants adapted on PMF-specific data. TSFMs generally achieve lower forecasting errors (MAE and RMSE) than traditional and specialized models trained from scratch on the same logs, indicating effective transfer of temporal structure from non-process domains. While fine-tuning can further improve accuracy, the gains are often small and may disappear on smaller or more complex datasets, so zero-shot use remains a strong default. Our study highlights the generalization capability and data efficiency of TSFMs for process-related time series and, to the best of our knowledge, provides the first systematic evaluation of temporal foundation models for PMF.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are widely used as generic feature extractors, yet the notion of non-stationarity in their embedding spaces remains poorly understood. Recent work often conflates non-stationarity with distribution shift, blurring distinctions fundamental to classical time-series analysis and long-standing methodologies such as statistical process control (SPC). In SPC, non-stationarity signals a process leaving a stable regime - via shifts in mean, variance, or emerging trends - and detecting such departures is central to quality monitoring and change-point analysis. Motivated by this diagnostic tradition, we study how different forms of distributional non-stationarity - mean shifts, variance changes, and linear trends - become linearly accessible in TSFM embedding spaces under controlled conditions. We further examine temporal non-stationarity arising from persistence, which reflects violations of weak stationarity due to long-memory or near-unit-root behavior rather than explicit distributional shifts. By sweeping shift strength and probing multiple TSFMs, we find that embedding-space detectability of non-stationarity degrades smoothly and that different models exhibit distinct, model-specific failure modes.

Stability assessment is central to safety-critical systems governed by differential-algebraic equations (DAEs), whose dynamics are constrained by physical laws and admissibility conditions. These systems operate under stochastically varying environmental inputs, so stability must be reassessed as the context distribution shifts, yet repeated large-scale DAE simulation is prohibitive in high-dimensional or real-time settings. We propose a test-oriented learning framework that tests a trajectory-level chance constraint from deployment contexts alone. Rather than re-estimating physical parameters or re-solving the DAE, we learn a latent representation from baseline context-trajectory data that retains stability-relevant information and is regularized toward a tractable reference distribution, and calibrate a latent discrepancy test over the composite safety null. We establish exact validity for oracle calibration and asymptotic validity for its empirical implementation under class-conditional latent invariance, and show that the guarantee degrades gracefully when this invariance holds only approximately. On simulated dynamical systems and a power-system real-world example, our approach strikes a balance between validity and power, whereas other baseline methods each fail in at least one regime. An ablation that injects controlled violations of the invariance assumption shows that decisions stay correct while the violation is below the safety margin, as the theory predicts.