Learning Chance-Constrained MDPs with Bellman Distributional Certificates
Organizations: Cornell University AI for Science Institute Cornell University Ithaca, NY, USA · Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering University of Washington Seattle, WA, USA
Abstract
Safe reinforcement learning (RL) commonly enforces expected-cost constraints, but such expectation safety may fail to control the probability of rare high-cost trajectories. Chance-constrained MDPs (CCMDPs) impose a stronger probability-level requirement, but are widely viewed as harder because the chance constraint is nonconvex and depends on the full trajectory rather than a Bellman-linear expectation. In this paper, we reveal that this computational difficulty does not necessarily imply a higher statistical price. For tabular discounted CCMDPs with fixed bounded successor support and access to a certified planning oracle, we establish a model-based upper bound, with a matching lower bound up to logarithmic terms. Technically, our key idea is the Bellman distributional certificate, which constructs a Bellman recursion for constraint violation probabilities before policy selection. The certificate can be reused across candidate policies; combined with shared row-wise reverse-KL confidence sets, it gives a policy-uniform trajectory-KL transfer without a union bound over policies or time--budget Bellman tables. For stochastic policies, we give a model-free variance-reduced policy-gradient algorithm with a finite-sample expected KKT-residual guarantee and independent validation of every accepted policy. Numerical experiments on synthetic CCMDPs and an IEEE 14-bus energy storage control benchmark illustrate the safety and mechanism behavior of the proposed algorithms.
Figures & tables
Appendix figures & tables3 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Decision state | ||||||||
| Risky reward | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.87 |
| Risky bad probability | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.021 | 0.024 | 0.028 | 0.032 | 0.036 | 0.040 |
| Risky next-state probability | 0.926 | 0.922 | 0.919 | 0.916 | 0.912 | 0.908 | 0.904 | 0.900 |
Markov Decision Processes
Markov decision processes model sequential choices under uncertainty, linking actions, state transitions, and rewards to planning and reinforcement learning.
See all 157 papers