Rondo: Unsupervised Discovery of Recurring Temporal Structure

Developing agents capable of exploring, planning and learning in complex open-ended environments is a grand challenge in artificial intelligence (AI). Hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) offers a promising solution to this challenge by discovering and exploiting the temporal structure within a stream of experience. The strong appeal of the HRL framework has led to a rich and diverse body of literature attempting to discover a useful structure. However, it is still not clear how one might define what constitutes good structure in the first place, or the kind of problems in which identifying it may be helpful. This work aims to identify the benefits of HRL from the perspective of the fundamental challenges in decision-making, as well as highlight its impact on the performance trade-offs of AI agents. Through these benefits, we then cover the families of methods that discover temporal structure in HRL, ranging from learning directly from online experience to offline datasets, to leveraging large language models (LLMs). Finally, we highlight the challenges of temporal structure discovery and the domains that are particularly well-suited for such endeavours.

Long-term time series forecasting requires temporal dependency modeling that remains stable and generalizable under temporal distribution shifts. However, real-world time series are often noisy and non-stationary, making deep learning models prone to fitting incidental temporal interactions in the training data. A key question is whether there exist temporal relationship structures that recur across different temporal positions and variables. We analyze temporal relationship matrices on commonly used time series datasets and find that samples from different temporal positions and different variables exhibit shared dominant temporal relationship structures. This indicates that temporal relationship structures contain patterns that recur stably across samples and variables. To learn such shared structures, we propose Temporal Structure Network (TStruct), a simple yet effective network for directly learning shared and generalizable temporal dependencies. Specifically, TStruct directly parameterizes a set of shared temporal dependency matrices and generates normalized combination weights using dynamic sample information and static variable priors. These weights represent a soft allocation of each sample-variable pair over shared temporal dependency structures, enabling the model to generate adaptive temporal dependency matrices under shared structural constraints, rather than fitting incidental interactions in a fully unconstrained manner. Notably, this simple structure-aware design consistently outperforms several strong baselines across all datasets, achieving superior accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency.

Learning long-range non-stationary temporal patterns remains a core challenge for modern sequence models, particularly in strict streaming settings. In these settings, data arrive sequentially and must be processed in a single pass without simultaneously revisiting past observations. Standard architectures, including recurrent neural networks and transformers, are constrained by either truncated backpropagation through time horizon or explicit input window length for long range credit assignment. To address these limitations, we propose SHARP (Sleep-based Hierarchical Accelerated Replay), a framework that decomposes temporal learning into two complementary components: a memory module that accumulates a structured history of past inputs, and a pattern-recognition module that operates over this memory. This separation enables resource- and compute-efficient adaptation to non-stationary dynamics by eliminating the need for backpropagation through time across many steps for long-range credit assignment. Inspired by the accelerated replay observed in rodents during slow-wave sleep, SHARP incorporates offline (sleep) phases in which temporally structured memory traces are replayed in an accelerated form and integrated into higher-level memory representations, improving long-range context retention. Through controlled simulations and ablation studies, we characterize the key properties of the proposed framework. In benchmark datasets such as text8 and PG-19, we demonstrate that SHARP improves over recurrent baselines by retaining next-token predictive performance on previously seen data while continuing to learn from the current stream and generalizing to future unseen data. These gains are enabled by its hierarchical structure, which yields an exponentially increasing effective temporal context with only linear-time computational cost.