Model-Aware Data Selection from In-and-Out Information Interplay

Data selection is increasingly used to reduce the cost of large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, with recent methods prioritizing samples by current utility, diversity, quality, or influence. This paper studies a different question: when fine-tuning occurs over multiple stages, can selection strategies that look optimal now make the model less adaptable later? We introduce a long-horizon view of LLM data selection in which a selector is evaluated not only by immediate task performance, but also by future adaptation speed, forgetting, capability imbalance, and out-of-distribution robustness. We compare representative random, loss-based, gradient-based, diversity-based, quality-based, and utility-diversity selection families under a unified multi-stage protocol. Through controlled experiments designed to instantiate this protocol, we show how short-term selectors can exhibit rank reversal: they improve the current stage while slowing subsequent learning and increasing forgetting. We formalize this behavior as myopic selection, provide a simple local analysis of why it can occur, and propose a diagnostic Long-Horizon Aware Selection (LHAS) objective that augments immediate utility with coverage, future-proxy transfer, and anti-concentration terms. The study argues that data selection should be evaluated as a training intervention that shapes the model's learning trajectory, rather than only as a local data-efficiency mechanism.

In reasoning supervised fine-tuning, candidate responses for the same instruction can differ substantially in how well they match the student's current distribution. Recent likelihood-based response selection methods suggest that responses closer to the student distribution provide more effective supervision, motivating the hypothesis that high-likelihood responses may generally be preferable for fine-tuning. In this paper, we revisit this intuition and show that the value of likelihood-based data selection depends critically on model capacity and training duration. Through controlled experiments on mathematical reasoning, using students ranging from 1.5B to 8B parameters and supervision generated by stronger teacher models, we observe a clear capacity-dependent ``{\color{SMALLCOLOR}Fast-Fit} / {\color{LARGECOLOR}Slow-Gain}'' pattern. High-likelihood data provides faster and more stable early improvements, especially for smaller models, but low-likelihood data becomes increasingly beneficial for larger models when training is allowed to continue longer. To explain this phenomenon, we analyze learning dynamics, showing that small models often fail to absorb low-likelihood supervision and instead fall into shallow or repetitive behaviors, while larger models are better able to move toward the teacher distribution under such data. We further provide a capacity-constrained theoretical view of distillation that clarifies how data difficulty, data span, and student capacity jointly govern transfer. Overall, our findings show that effective data selection for reasoning should be aware of model capacity and computing budget rather than based on a single universal preference for high-likelihood supervision.

Data selection plays a central role in modern large language model training, as the quality of training data strongly influences downstream performance. A common approach is to curate a development set that encodes the desired skills (e.g., reasoning or multilinguality) and select data that are similar to them. Existing methods compute similarity using cosine distance over either the model's hidden states or gradients. However, we observe that this max-similarity strategy induces a mode-seeking bias: the selected data clusters tightly around the development samples. To address this, we propose ICLHerd, a data selection framework that leverages the von Mises-Fisher kernel to balance mode-seeking with mode-averaging. We further introduce in-context learning as a validation proxy, enabling efficient hyperparameter search over the balance trade-off. Results show that ICLHerd outperforms existing LLM data selection algorithms, highlighting the importance of balancing mode-seeking and mode-averaging.