NeuronSifter: Intervention Planning in CNS Microenvironments

Mechanistic discovery in neuronal microenvironments requires interventions and measurements that separate competing explanations of solute transport and neuronal response. Predictive accuracy cannot settle the question: a real mechanistic change and an error in the computational twin leave the same signature in sparse observations. We formalize this twin confounding and reason over a joint mechanism--discrepancy belief, designing experiments that separate the two. NeuronDiscover is an Agent-in-Twin framework whose shared, mechanism-grounded World Action Model (WAM) couples prediction, intervention proposals, and observation design; independently adjudicated outcomes revise a scoped Mechanism--Intervention--Observation--Outcome (MIOY) graph, whose supported relations compile into executable programs carrying discrepancy-adjusted acceptance bounds. We evaluate on simulated brain-fluid tracer-transport worlds adjudicated by an independently frozen finer-mesh reference solver, and on donor-disjoint public current-clamp recordings of cortical neurons. Counting only relations that reach a certified terminal status, and scoring abstentions as unresolved for every method, at a matched budget of 16 experiments over 32 source units NeuronDiscover resolves 4.0 relations per assigned world against 3.4 for the strongest baseline and 3.2 without graph revision, at 5% false support and 82% scope accuracy. Joint mechanism--discrepancy acquisition resolves 3.8 relations versus 2.9 for plug-in expected information gain; discrepancy-adjusted verification lowers accepted-program failure from 15% to 9% at 60% acceptance coverage; and transfer to the recordings yields 1.94 versus 1.53 relations per assigned world. Correctness is adjudicated within declared model worlds and archival recordings.

Human decision-making is sequential and uncertainty-aware, yet standard neural networks often rely on static, dense forward computation with limited visibility into evidence acquisition, uncertainty evolution, or when computation should stop. We introduce \textbf{Neural Bayesian Sequential Routing (NBSR)}, a framework that models neural inference as active evidence accumulation over a hierarchical Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). Within a Dirichlet--Categorical conjugate framework, neural experts query a persistent global knowledge oracle to extract positive evidence vectors, which act as pseudo-counts and update a Dirichlet belief state by exact conjugate addition. Coupled with a Gumbel-Softmax Straight-Through estimator, this update enables hard, path-dependent routing while preserving surrogate gradients for end-to-end training. The resulting Dirichlet precision and entropy provide mechanisms for uncertainty quantification, entropy-based early exiting, OOD abstention, and cost-aware evidence acquisition. We prove that, under strictly positive evidence extraction, total Dirichlet precision increases monotonically along any valid trajectory and marginal predictive variance is bounded, formalizing sequential ``hypothesis sharpening''; under idealized capacity and optimization assumptions, the terminal Dirichlet expectation recovers the Bayes-optimal conditional distribution. Empirical evaluations across visual categorization, structured medical diagnosis, language modeling, partially observable control, and cost-aware Bayesian experimental design show that NBSR achieves competitive predictive performance while providing transparent routing traces, path-dependent evidence attribution, uncertainty-aware decision control, and resource-rational inference. Overall, NBSR offers a mathematically grounded framework for interpretable, modular, and resource-rational agentic AI.

Published transfer-BO comparisons often estimate an average treatment effect of acquisition choice over hidden regime variables, while practitioners need the conditional effect for their specific prior quality, budget ratio, and metric. An audit of 40 transfer-BO papers from NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR, AISTATS, UAI, TMLR, JMLR, and AutoML-Conf (2022-2025) finds that 98% never vary B/|A| as a controlled axis. On the same GDSC2 benchmark, changing only the budget reverses the ranking: at B=50, Greedy outperforms UCB by 0.050 Hit@1, while at B=100, UCB outperforms Greedy by 0.035. We capture this transition with the Portable Regime Score PRS=(B/|A|)(1-rho), where rho is the prior rank correlation and can be estimated from pilot contexts before the main comparison. Across 79 conditions spanning chemistry, drug-response biology, and HPO, a hierarchical model gives beta=0.50 (p=1.1e-9), and 19% of conditions fall in an equivalence zone where |advantage|<0.01 Hit@1. In five published reversal cases, PRS predicts the winner from pre-comparison observables. A No-Free-Leaderboard proposition explains why unconditional rankings are unstable: when CATE changes sign across regimes, the reported ATE becomes a function of benchmark mixture. RegimePlanner, which estimates rho online and switches acquisition accordingly, wins all 16 HPO-B search spaces at B=100 and exceeds the matched {Greedy,UCB} per-context oracle on GDSC2 by 18%. Pre-registered predictions achieve 27/40=67.5% overall accuracy and above 90% within EMA prior families. The practical protocol is simple: report B/|A|, rho, K, and metric alongside any claimed acquisition advantage.