TokenCast: Forecasting Token Consumption During LLM Agent Execution

The wide adoption of AI agents in complex human workflows is driving rapid growth in LLM token consumption. When agents are deployed on tasks that require a significant amount of tokens, three questions naturally arise: (1) Where do AI agents spend the tokens? (2) Which models are more token-efficient? and (3) Can agents predict their token usage before task execution? In this paper, we present the first systematic study of token consumption patterns in agentic coding tasks. We analyze trajectories from eight frontier LLMs on SWE-bench Verified and evaluate models' ability to predict their own token costs before task execution. We find that: (1) agentic tasks are uniquely expensive, consuming 1000x more tokens than code reasoning and code chat, with input tokens rather than output tokens driving the overall cost; (2) token usage is highly variable and inherently stochastic: runs on the same task can differ by up to 30x in total tokens, and higher token usage does not translate into higher accuracy; instead, accuracy often peaks at intermediate cost and saturates at higher costs; (3) models vary substantially in token efficiency: on the same tasks, Kimi-K2 and Claude-Sonnet-4.5, on average, consume over 1.5 million more tokens than GPT-5; (4) task difficulty rated by human experts only weakly aligns with actual token costs, revealing a fundamental gap between human-perceived complexity and the computational effort agents actually expend; and (5) frontier models fail to accurately predict their own token usage (with weak-to-moderate correlations, up to 0.39) and systematically underestimate real token costs. Our study offers new insights into the economics of AI agents and can inspire future research in this direction.

LLM serving caches prompt KV state, yet most front ends still re-tokenize the full request on every call. Coding agents pay most: sessions repeatedly submit a long transcript after a small append, which can shift token boundaries near the end of the prior sequence. Across 153,951 calls the median append is ~1.4K characters; only 1.0-3.6% of calls start or rebuild a session, yet those carrymulti-million-character contexts. Fleet prompt-cache hit rate is 94.1%, and as it approaches 0.99, tokenization grows from 10% to 64% of time to first token (TTFT) in component measurements. TokTier is a stateful CPU+GPU tokenization service for this two-mode workload, under one contract: emitted token IDs are always identical to full reference tokenization. For session continuations it re-tokenizes a small window around the append and splices only when a per-request check finds a stable pre-tokenization boundary; failed checks widen the window or fall back to full reference tokenization. For calls without a reusable prefix it runs exact GPT-family regex pre-tokenization and BPE on a GPU. A sampled shadow verifier re-checks live traffic. Across 17 production tokenizer families, differential campaigns cover 1.5x10^10 split checks, a 12.4 TB real-text corpus, and 93,000+ replayed agent steps, with zero divergence. Incremental repair takes 0.5-1.1 ms from 100K to 3M characters, up to 437x faster than HF tokenization and 2.1x faster at 1M characters than the strongest cache-based baseline (Gigatoken) fully prewarmed. GPU tokenization encodes a 1M-character request in 0.87 ms, up to 491x below HF and 23.4x below the fastest published CPU method on the same protocol. With vLLM, median TTFT drops 16-34% and P99 TTFT 23% under recorded bursts. Under a 50 ms P99 objective, a four-core repair pool plus one GPU sustains 1,821 requests/s, where a 16-core stateless front end saturates at 40 requests/s.

As LLM agents are deployed in long-horizon sessions, context accumulation drives up inference costs. Existing approaches utilize text pruning or dynamic memory eviction to minimize token footprints; however, their unconstrained sequence mutations alter layouts, introducing prefix mismatches and cache invalidation. This reveals a critical trade-off between text sparsity and prompt cache continuity. To address this, we present TokenPilot, a dual-granularity context management framework. Globally, Ingestion-Aware Compaction acts as a framework harness to stabilize prompt prefixes and eliminate open-world environmental noise at the ingestion gate. Locally, Lifecycle-Aware Eviction monitors the ongoing residual utility of context segments, enforcing a conservative batch-turn schedule to offload content segments only when task relevance expires. Experiments on PinchBench and Claw-Eval under both isolated and continuous modes demonstrate that TokenPilot reduces costs by 61% and 56% in isolated mode, and 61% and 87% in continuous mode, while maintaining competitive performance compared to prior systems. TokenPilot has been integrated into LightMem2 at https://github.com/zjunlp/LightMem2.