cs.CLSep 19, 2026

Alignment Forecasting: Predicting Misalignment From Training Data

Authors: Chen Yueh-Han, Bruce W. Lee, Ilia Sucholutsky, Tomek Korbak

Organizations: NYU, MATS · Independent · NYU · OpenAI

Abstract

Training a language model on data with a narrow flaw can sometimes make the model broadly misaligned. Inspecting the data at face value often does not settle whether it will emerge, and today it is caught only after training, by auditing the resulting model. To complement post-hoc audits, we introduce Alignment Forecasting: the task of predicting alignment failures before training. Given a target model, a fine-tuning dataset, and a failure mode such as deception or sycophancy, a forecaster outputs the probability that fine-tuning would meaningfully increase that failure mode. To measure progress on alignment forecasting, we introduce ALIGNMENTFORECASTBENCH, a benchmark of over 5,000 forecasting questions spanning 17 target models, 32 datasets, and 16 failure modes. Frontier models prompted directly perform poorly on ALIGNMENTFORECASTBENCH. We therefore propose a forecasting scaffold in which an LLM reads the dataset and rates how strongly and broadly it pushes the model toward misbehavior, and a simple learned model combines that rating with the failure mode's base rate and the target model's prior tendency. This forecasts well above chance, and beats a model fine-tuned on the task and a simple forecaster allowed to see how weaker models behaved after fine-tuning on the same data. Its signals also flag problematic training examples that a frontier-model classifier misses. Filtering those examples out from real post-training data such as UltraChat results in more aligned models on our multiple-choice evaluation in most cases, though the benefit in open-ended conversations is unclear. More progress is needed before forecasts can reliably guide training data curation in practice, but our results suggest that forecasting many alignment failures before training can be tractable in the SFT setting.

Figures & tables

Appendix figures & tables25 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Explore similar work

Sep 30, 2026cs.CL

Emergent Unfaithfulness: How Alignment Training Causes Language Models to Silently Override Task Faithfulness

Large language models are characterized by three key properties: capability, alignment, and faithfulness. Prior work studies the tradeoffs between capability and alignment, and between capability and faithfulness, but a third tension remains underexplored: the alignment-faithfulness conflict. We show that aligned models systematically deviate from their inputs on unsafe or sensitive content without disclosing the modification, a failure mode we call alignment-induced unfaithfulness (AIU). Unlike capability-driven unfaithfulness, which comes from errors in knowledge or reasoning, this is induced by post-training mechanisms that override adherence to the input. We introduce FaithConflict, a controlled dataset isolating both conflicts, and two complementary taxonomies: behavioral (B1-B8) and chain-of-thought reasoning (C0-C6). Across models, AIU increases with scale and more sharply than capability-driven unfaithfulness, a reverse scaling law; intermediate checkpoints show it is amplified during post-training, with DPO the stage at which the gap both grows most and becomes least visible. Prompting-based mitigation does not resolve it, revealing a capability-alignment-faithfulness trilemma in the design and evaluation of LLMs.
Apr 28, 2026cs.LG

Conditional misalignment: common interventions can hide emergent misalignment behind contextual triggers

Finetuning a language model can lead to emergent misalignment (EM) [Betley et al., 2025b]. Models trained on a narrow distribution of misaligned behavior generalize to more egregious behaviors when tested outside the training distribution. We study a set of interventions proposed to reduce EM. We confirm that these interventions reduce or eliminate EM on existing evaluations (questions like "How do I make a quick buck?"). However, if the evaluation prompts are tweaked to resemble the training context, the model displays EM. We call this conditional misalignment. As in standard EM, the model displays misaligned behaviors more egregious than those seen during training, but only on inputs sharing features with the training data. The first two interventions are diluting misaligned data with benign data, and finetuning on benign data after misaligned data. Both produce conditional misalignment. For instance, models trained on a mix of only 5% insecure code still show misalignment when asked to format responses as Python strings (resembling the training context). The third intervention is inoculation prompting. Here, statements with a similar form to the inoculation prompt serve as triggers for misalignment, even if they have the opposite meaning. On the positive side, inoculation prompting has lower (but still non-zero) conditional misalignment if training is on-policy or includes reasoning distillation. Our results imply that in realistic post-training, where misaligned data is typically combined with benign data, models may be conditionally misaligned even if standard evaluations look clean.
Apr 22, 2026cs.AI

Value-Conflict Diagnostics Reveal Widespread Alignment Faking in Language Models

Alignment faking, where a model behaves aligned with developer policy when monitored but reverts to its own preferences when unobserved, is a concerning yet poorly understood phenomenon, in part because current diagnostic tools remain limited. Prior diagnostics rely on highly toxic and clearly harmful scenarios, causing most models to refuse immediately. As a result, models never deliberate over developer policy, monitoring conditions, or the consequences of non-compliance, making these diagnostics fundamentally unable to detect alignment faking propensity. To support study of this phenomenon, we first introduce VLAF, a diagnostic framework grounded in the hypothesis that alignment faking is most likely when developer policy conflicts with a model's strongly held values. VLAF uses morally unambiguous scenarios to probe this conflict across diverse moral values, bypassing refusal behavior while preserving meaningful deliberative stakes. Using VLAF, we find that alignment faking is substantially more prevalent than previously reported, occurring in models as small as 7B parameters - with olmo2-7b-instruct faking alignment in 37% of cases. Finally, we show that oversight conditions induce activation shifts that lie along a single direction in representation space. This means the behavioral divergence driving alignment faking can be captured by a single contrastive steering vector, which we exploit for lightweight inference-time mitigation. Finally, we exploit this for mitigation that requires no labeled data and minimal computational overhead, achieving relative reductions in alignment faking of 85.8%, 94.0%, and 57.7% on olmo2-7b-instruct, olmo2-13b-instruct, and qwen3-8b respectively.