Behavioral Capacity Certificates for Quantized Language Models

Large clinical language models often require multi-GPU infrastructure, limiting local deployment. We introduce CERTA, a decision-level statistical certificate that determines when a quantized model may substitute for its native BF16 reference and escalates decisions that cannot be certified to it. Across eleven instruction-tuned models, both general-purpose and domain-adapted, from three families (7-72B), we evaluated 2,500 clinical-verification decisions from de-identified patient contexts (2,484 patients), with patient-disjoint calibration and testing. In the higher-power operational analysis, round-to-nearest 8-bit quantization at BF16 storage served 99.8-100% of held-out decisions across all eleven models; formal finite-sample guarantees were assessed separately using the exact split-sample procedure. In the same operational analysis, the class-conditional 4-bit frontier reduced the amortized, BF16-equivalent deployment cost to 25.8% and 27.3% of the BF16 reference for Qwen2.5-72B and HuatuoGPT-o1-72B, respectively, with measured peak memory of 43.0 and 42.7 GB, below the nominal capacity of a single 48 GB accelerator. Deployment on that specific hardware was not directly tested. Under the exact split-sample certificate, which also accounts for configuration selection, these costs were 26.7% and 27.9%. On external disease named-entity benchmarks against human annotations, the frontier-selected NF4 configurations had a mean absolute F1 change of 0.045 on both datasets, with substantial model-specific variation. CERTA converts compression from a fixed precision choice into a risk-controlled deployment policy for this verification task.

Training language models with ternary weights is commonly judged by loss and downstream accuracy, which record only a modest cost relative to full precision. We show that these metrics can conceal a much larger failure. We instead measure knowledge capacity, the factual bits stored per parameter, on synthetic biographies with known information content. We train GPT-2-style models from scratch with 2.5M to 50M parameters at five precisions. Under the standard cosine schedule, ternary models retain as little as 6% of an identically trained fp16 model's capacity. The deficit widens with model size while perplexity rises by only 1.4 to 1.6 times. Measured throughout training, these models first acquire capacity and then lose most of it. We identify this knowledge collapse as a learning-rate dwell instability. Held near $1$--$2\times10^{-4}$ with no decay, a pre-collapse model collapses within a few hundred exposures, and returning to a safe rate does not restore capacity. We then locate the collapse in the output head. It happens at a value the model can never predict. The weights there grow unchecked, while every other prediction the model makes is unchanged. We find that making the value predictable removes the collapse, regardless of which attribute carries it. A warmup-stable-decay schedule with a 10% cooldown increases ternary capacity by 2.7 times at 25M and 4.3 times at 50M. Gains are larger at lower precision. Cutting the output head's learning rate prevents failure when training from scratch. The post-training quantization methods we tested recover no measurable capacity below 4 bits. Our findings suggest judging low-precision training by retained capacity during training rather than final loss.

Extreme low-bit inference offers a route toward smaller models and constrained deployment. Ternary language models restrict weights to $\{-1,0,+1\}$, approaching the limit of $\log_2 3 \approx 1.585$ bits/weight. The practical question for a pretrained model is not simply whether weights can be quantised but which capabilities survive and whether it remains useful for adaptation. We explore this by converting Qwen3.5-0.8B (752M parameters) to ternary weights using 72.4M tokens of quantisation-aware training (QAT). The resulting model, Cloe, is evaluated across 29 benchmarks, representation diagnostics, and downstream fine-tuning. The evidence shows non-uniform degradation. A linear probe recovers 43.76% of MMLU answers from the full-precision teacher's representations but only 26.19% from Cloe (near chance), indicating specialist factual information is lost. However, Cloe retains measurable performance on ten tasks, averaging 77.1% of teacher performance. Crucially, fine-tuning raises Cloe to 89.8% on SST-2 (95.6% of the matched teacher) and reaches 79.4% teacher retention on XSum. We attribute degradation to a combination of quantisation-induced information loss and incomplete recovery due to the limited QAT budget. We also highlight an evaluation pitfall: standard answer-letter scoring failed (Cloe emitted "A" on 98.6% of MMLU questions), necessitating continuation scoring. Ultimately, ternary conversion is unsuitable as a drop-in general replacement yet remains valuable as a compact substrate for task-specific models.