Capturing In-Context Learning Dynamics with Task Operators

In-context learning (ICL) can be amortized into latent objects (task vectors, function vectors, context vectors) that recover few-shot behavior at zero-shot inference cost, but recent theory shows a static vector acts as a single synthetic demonstration and must fail on high-rank mappings such as word-level bijections. We ask a linguistic version of this question: which linguistic operations can be amortized out of the prompt? We train a 2.6M-parameter network that reads the geometry of a few-shot support set (centroid, principal subspace, spectrum, computed once and cached) and produces an input-conditioned additive update to the query's residual stream at a mid-depth layer of a frozen GPT-2-large/XL. Across eight inflectional directions and one lexical relation, under a canonical split that bars inverted-pair leakage between directions, three regimes emerge. On forward inflection, where 10-shot ICL is strong (0.67-0.89) and extracted task vectors collapse (<=0.06), the transform matches ICL at strictly zero-shot per-query cost. On lemmatization directions, which frozen GPT-2 can execute but 10 demonstrations systematically fail to convey (ICL 0.13-0.48 at 1.5B), the transform is not capped by ICL at all: it reaches 0.78-0.92, up to +72 points over ICL (past to present: 0.85 vs. 0.13). On arbitrary pairings (antonymy) every amortizer plateaus near half of ICL at every scale, capacity, and seed tested. Controls show the support manifold acts as a causally necessary task fingerprint: wrong-task manifolds collapse accuracy to <=0.06, query-only variants cannot disambiguate tasks sharing an input space, and leave-one-task-out transfer is zero. Productive rules amortize into latent task representations, sometimes better than prompting can convey them; memorized pairings do not.

In-context learning (ICL) allows large language models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks through demonstrations, yet it suffers from escalating inference costs as context length increases. While task vectors offer a promising alternative by compressing demonstrations into compact hidden-state representations, their quality has been evaluated only through downstream task accuracy. This indirect criterion provides limited insight into how to design more effective task vector extraction methods. In this paper, we posit that inference using task vectors should align their predictive distribution with that of ICL. To quantify this, we introduce $d_{\text{NTP}}$, a metric that measures the discrepancy in next-token probabilities between task vector-based and ICL-based inference. Our empirical analysis reveals that $d_{\text{NTP}}$ serves as a performance proxy, exhibiting a strong negative correlation with downstream accuracy. Motivated by this, we develop Linear Task Vector (LTV), a method designed to minimize $d_{\text{NTP}}$ via a closed-form linear mapping that estimates demonstration effects through regression. Across eight classification benchmarks and five LLMs, LTV consistently outperforms existing task vector baselines, improving average accuracy by 9.2% while reducing inference latency. We further show that LTV outperforms the baselines on regression tasks. Moreover, we investigate the transferability of LTV across different model scales; an aspect that has remained nascent in task vector research. Specifically, we empirically show that task vectors from a larger model can enhance a smaller model's performance by 6.4%, suggesting a new utility for extracted task representations.

While many-shot ICL achieves remarkable performance, prior studies of its scaling behavior have mainly focused on non-reasoning tasks. In this work, we study many-shot ICL on reasoning tasks, with a particular focus on many-shot chain-of-thought in-context learning (CoT-ICL). Analyzing across non-reasoning and reasoning tasks and across non-reasoning and reasoning-oriented LLMs, we identify several distinctive properties of many-shot CoT-ICL. We further interpret these findings by viewing many-shot CoT-ICL as in-context test-time learning rather than scaled pattern matching, and suggest two principles: (i) demonstrations should be easy for the target model to understand, and (ii) they should be ordered to support a smooth conceptual progression. Guided by the principle, we propose Curvilinear Demonstration Selection (CDS), a simple ordering method that yields up to a 5.42 percentage-point gain on a math task with 64 demonstrations. Overall, our results reframe the long context window from a retrieval buffer into a structured curriculum for in-context test-time learning.