Nearest-neighbour baselines for fingerprint prediction from MS/MS spectra under different assumptions

One of the central challenges in the computational analysis of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) data is to identify the compounds underlying the output spectra. In recent years, this problem is increasingly tackled using deep learning methods. A common strategy involves predicting a molecular fingerprint vector from an input mass spectrum, which is then used to search for matches in a chemical compound database. While various loss functions are employed in training these predictive models, their impact on model performance remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigate commonly used loss functions, deriving novel regret bounds that characterize when Bayes-optimal decisions for these objectives must diverge. Our results reveal a fundamental trade-off between the two objectives of (1) fingerprint similarity and (2) molecular retrieval. Optimizing for more accurate fingerprint predictions typically worsens retrieval results, and vice versa. Our theoretical analysis shows this trade-off depends on the similarity structure of candidate sets, providing guidance for loss function and fingerprint selection.

Machine learning methods for identifying molecular structures from tandem mass spectra (MS/MS) have advanced rapidly, yet current approaches still exhibit significant error rates. In high-stakes applications such as clinical metabolomics and environmental screening, incorrect annotations can have serious consequences, making it essential to determine when a prediction can be trusted. In this work, we introduce a selective prediction framework for molecular structure retrieval from MS/MS spectra, separating low-risk predictions automatically from lower-confidence predictions. We formulate the problem within the risk-coverage tradeoff framework and systematically evaluate uncertainty quantification strategies at three levels: input-level distance in the learned representation, fingerprint-level uncertainty over predicted molecular fingerprint bits, and retrieval-level uncertainty over candidate rankings. We compare scoring functions including first-order confidence measures, aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimates from second-order distributions, as well as distance-based measures in the latent space. All experiments are conducted on the MassSpecGym benchmark. Our analysis reveals that while fingerprint-level uncertainty scores are poor proxies for retrieval success, retrieval-level total uncertainty provides the overall strongest rejection criterion, and first-order confidence measures are computationally inexpensive, strong baselines. We demonstrate that by applying distribution-free risk control via generalisation bounds, practitioners can specify a tolerable error rate and obtain a subset of annotations satisfying that constraint with high probability.

Computational molecular representations underpin virtual screening, property prediction, and materials discovery. Conventional fingerprints are efficient and deterministic but lose structural information through hash-based compression, particularly at low dimensionalities. Learned representations from graph neural networks recover this expressiveness but require task-specific training and substantial computational resources. Here we introduce hyperdimensional fingerprints (HDF), which replace the learned transformations of message-passing neural networks with algebraic operations on high-dimensional vectors, producing deterministic molecular representations without any training. Across diverse property prediction benchmarks, HDF outperforms conventional fingerprints in the majority of tasks while exhibiting greater consistency across datasets and models. Crucially, HDF embeddings preserve molecular similarity faithfully: at 32 dimensions, distances in HDF space achieve a 0.9 Pearson correlation with graph edit distance, compared to 0.55 for Morgan fingerprints at equivalent size. This structural fidelity persists at low dimensions where hash-based methods degrade, allowing simple nearest-neighbor regression to remain predictive with as few as 64 components. We further demonstrate the practical impact in Bayesian molecular optimization, where HDF-based surrogate models achieve substantially improved sample efficiency in regimes where Morgan fingerprints perform comparably to random search. HDF thus provides a general-purpose, training-free alternative to conventional molecular fingerprints, suggesting that the information loss long accepted as inherent to fixed-length fingerprints is a limitation of the hash-based encoding scheme rather than the fingerprint paradigm itself.