A Simulation-Grounded Agentic VLM Framework for Wildfire Monitoring and Reporting
Organizations: Georgia Institute of Technology · Sandia National Laboratories
Abstract
Effective wildfire monitoring requires relating visual evidence to physical fire dynamics, yet real videos with synchronized physical annotations are scarce and high-fidelity 3D simulation is costly. We present a simulation-grounded vision-language model (VLM) framework that automatically converts 2D wildfire simulations into labeled video episodes. A fixed Blender mapping produces low-detail 3D proxies aligned with simulator terrain, fuel layout, fire activity, and wind cues; controllable video generation supplies richer appearance. The proxies are intermediate representations rather than finely rendered final scenes. Generated videos and simulator labels form reusable multimodal memory for a training-free multi-agent VLM system that retrieves reference episodes, reconciles visual and memory-based predictions, and produces structured wildfire reports. On held-out generated episodes, video memory achieves 51.5% exact four-tag accuracy, compared with 22.6% for direct VLM querying and 16-17% for text-only memory; the complete system achieves 77.3% accuracy on six simulator-derived report fields. Component ablations, cross-generator tests, and three real-UAV evaluations assess retrieval, reporting, generator changes, and observable monitoring tasks. The framework connects automatic simulation-to-proxy conversion with memory-based VLM reasoning under scarce real-world physical annotations.
Figures & tables
| Task | Direct Query GPT | Multi-Agent + Combined Memory | ForestFireVLM | Qwen2-Wildfire-2B |
| Fast Spread Risk | 55.7% | 75.3% | 58.8% | 43.3% |
| High Peak Burning Area | 63.9% | 77.3% | 54.6% | 59.8% |
| High Final Burnscar | 64.9% | 80.4% | 55.7% | 60.8% |
| High Canopy Cover | 57.7% | 73.2% | 67.0% | 47.4% |
| Rapid Growth + Large Burn | 64.9% | 79.4% | 55.7% | 60.8% |
| Severe Fire Behavior | 66.0% | 78.4% | 56.7% | 59.8% |
| (a) Cross-generator evaluation | ||||
| Query Memory | Ours | GPT | Claude | Gemini |
| LTX VACE | 41.00 | 19.00 | 24.00 | 28.00 |
| VACE LTX | 44.44 | 27.27 | 23.23 | 26.26 |
Appendix figures & tables22 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Task | Class balance | Majority | Random | Stratified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | high: 49.5%, low: 50.5% | 50.5% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Moisture | high: 49.5%, low: 50.5% | 50.5% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Slope | high: 44.4%, low: 55.6% | 55.6% | 50.0% | 50.6% |
| Vegetation | high: 47.5%, low: 52.5% | 52.5% | 50.0% | 50.1% |
| Task | Class balance | Majority | Random | Stratified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Spread Risk | fast: 56.7%, slow/moderate: 43.3% | 56.7% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| High Peak Burning Area | high: 40.2%, low: 59.8% | 59.8% | 50.0% | 51.9% |
| High Final Burnscar | high: 39.2%, low: 60.8% | 60.8% | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| High Canopy Cover | high: 44.3%, low: 55.7% | 55.7% | 50.0% | 50.6% |
| Rapid Growth + Large Burn | high: 39.2%, low: 60.8% | 60.8% | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| Severe Fire Behavior | high: 40.2%, low: 59.8% | 59.8% | 50.0% | 51.9% |
| Task | Meaning | Positive Label Definition |
| Fast Spread Risk | The fire spreads at a fast or very fast rate. | Positive if m/s. We use four spread classes: slow for , moderate for , fast for , and very fast for . |
| High Peak Burning Area | The episode reaches a large active burning area. | Positive if m 2 . |
| High Final Burn Scar | The episode leaves a large final burned area. | Positive if m 2 . |
| High Canopy Cover | The episode occurs in a relatively high-canopy environment. | Positive if is at or above the median canopy cover in the training set. In our data, this threshold is . |
| Rapid Growth + Large Burn | The episode combines rapid fire spread with a large final burn scar. | Positive if m/s and m 2 . |
| Severe Fire Behavior | The episode satisfies multiple indicators of severe fire behavior. | Positive if at least two of the following three conditions hold: m/s, m 2 , and m 2 . |
| Code | Name | Base billboard mix in renderer |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Short grass | grass_short 94%, shrub_green 6% |
| 2 | Timber (grass + understory) | grass_short 62%, shrub_green 26%, tree_conifer 12% |
| 3 | Tall grass | grass_tall 94%, tree_hardwood 6% |
| 4 | Chaparral | shrub_green 65%, shrub_dry 20%, grass_tall 15% |
| 5 | Brush | shrub_green 42%, shrub_dry 33%, grass_short 25% |
| 6 | Dormant brush / hardwood slash | shrub_dry 55%, grass_short 20%, slash 25% |
| Metric | Directions | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| SSIM | Grayscale structural similarity between aligned VACE and render frames. | |
| Edge F1 / Edge-control F1 | Canny-edge overlap between VACE and render frames with a small dilation tolerance. | |
| RGB L1 | Mean absolute RGB difference over aligned frames. | |
| LPIPS | AlexNet LPIPS perceptual distance averaged over aligned frames. | |
| Correct-pair win rate | Fraction of samples for which the paired render is closer to the VACE output than a mismatched render. |
| SSIM | SSIM Win Rate | Edge F1 | Edge F1 Win Rate | RGB L1 | RGB L1 Win Rate | LPIPS | LPIPS Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.334 | 76.6% | 0.612 | 81.3% | 0.189 | 72.0% | 0.516 | 99.1% |
| Metric | Median | Mean | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoke plume axis | 95.8% | 97.4% | 99.2% | 3.7 | 7.6 |
| Growth-front fire-spread axis | 47.1% | 67.3% | 79.0% | 32.7 | 35.8 |
| Cue or comparison | Score |
| Fire-front location | 79.17 |
| Fuel distribution | 68.75 |
| Burned area | 70.83 |
| Terrain structure | 81.25 |
| Overall | 75.00 |
| Identical proxy–proxy pairs |
| Model family | Evaluation role | Prompt family |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-4.1 / GPT-5.2 | direct query-only four-tag inference | shared query-only tag prompt in Section G.1 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | direct query-only four-tag inference | shared query-only prompt plus Gemini/Claude JSON wrapper in Section G.2 |
| Claude Sonnet 4 | direct query-only four-tag inference | shared query-only prompt plus Gemini/Claude JSON wrapper in Section G.2 |
| Qwen2-Wildfire-2B | local VLM four-tag inference; six-task downstream conditioned on its own predicted tags | local VLM binary-tag prompt in Section G.3 ; downstream VLM prediction in Section I.7 |
| ForestFireVLM-7B | local VLM four-tag inference; six-task downstream conditioned on its own predicted tags | local VLM binary-tag prompt in Section G.3 ; downstream VLM prediction in Section I.7 |
| GPT-5-mini | downstream specialist inference | downstream specialist system + context blocks in Section I |
| Input | Decision rule | Prompt effect |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel percentage by code | The top four burnable land-cover groups are selected after grouping by semantic cover type. | Forms the phrase “Surface cover should read as …” |
| Non-burnable percentage by code | The top three non-burnable groups are selected after grouping by semantic barrier type. | Forms the phrase “with … acting as fire breaks.” |
| Cover percentage | : dominant; : major; : moderate; : minor; : trace. | Adds qualitative size words such as “major brushy shrubland” or “minor open water.” |
| Burnable percentage | : fragmented; : partially interrupted; : mostly continuous. | Sets the fuel-continuity phrase. |
| Non-burnable percentage | : substantial; : noticeable; : limited. | Sets the barrier-influence phrase. |
| Wind speed | Wind phrase | Smoke phrase | Spotting phrase |
|---|---|---|---|
| m/s | very light | Mostly vertical smoke column with gentle drift and limited sideways shear. | Only sparse short-range ember lofting where continuity supports it. |
| – m/s | light | Mostly upright smoke plume with mild downwind drift and restrained lateral shear. | Limited ember lofting and short-range spotting where continuity supports it. |
| – m/s | moderate | Clear downwind smoke advection with moderate plume tilt and lateral drift. | Occasional ember spotting where continuity supports it. |
| – m/s | strong | Strong downwind smoke transport with a clearly bent plume and sustained lateral advection. | Frequent downwind ember transport and intermittent spotting where continuity supports it. |
| m/s | very strong | Strong downwind smoke transport with a clearly bent plume and sustained lateral advection. | Frequent downwind ember transport and intermittent spotting where continuity supports it. |
| Feature | Decision rule | Prompt effect |
|---|---|---|
| Moisture tag | low_moisture : very dry surface fuels; high_moisture : comparatively moister surface fuels. | Tags override numeric moisture wording. |
| Numeric moisture | : very dry; : dry; : moderately dry; : moist. | Used when no explicit moisture tag is present. |
| Elevation relief | m: gentle; m: rolling; m: rugged; m: very rugged. | Sets the terrain phrase. Default wording says spread accelerates on favorable slopes and eases where aspect is less favorable. |
| Slope tag | high_slope : emphasizes steeper local slopes; low_slope : emphasizes broader gentler local slopes. | Modifies terrain wording beyond the numeric relief class. |
| Vegetation tag | high_vegetation : denser vegetation, continuous canopy, fewer gaps; low_vegetation : more open, sparse vegetation, patchier canopy. | Adds a separate vegetation-density sentence. |
| Condition | Additional negative phrases |
|---|---|
| m/s | strong wind; very strong wind; gale-force smoke; wind-whipped flames; violent lateral smoke; long horizontal smoke bands; storm-like plume bending. |
| m/s | strong wind; gale-force smoke; wind-whipped flames; extreme lateral smoke advection; fully horizontal smoke plume. |
| m/s | hurricane-force wind; perfectly still air; fully vertical plume with no drift. |
| m/s | still air; calm smoke column; perfectly vertical plume with no downwind drift. |
| low_moisture | rain-soaked fuels; wet ground everywhere. |
| high_moisture | ultra-dry fuels; explosive firestorm behavior from uniformly desiccated vegetation. |
| Model | All four | At least three | At least two |
| GPT-4.1 mini | 24.27 | 57.65 | 91.92 |
| GPT-5 mini | 27.27 | 66.67 | 95.96 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 23.23 | 63.64 | 95.96 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | 26.26 | 75.76 | 97.98 |
| Reranker | Execution | Mean | Median | Prep. + scorer | Four-tag accuracy |
| GPT-5 | API | 9.18 | 8.60 | 11.80 | 51.52 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | API | 12.30 | 11.97 | 14.59 | 46.46 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | API | 22.24 | 21.59 | 24.53 | 51.52 |
| Qwen3-VL-Reranker-2B | Local H200 | 5.79 | 5.16 | 7.97 | 40.40 |
| Exact four-tag hit | Marginal gain | Wind | Moisture | Slope | Vegetation | |
| 1 | 51.52 | – | 74.75 | 83.84 | 82.83 | 89.90 |
| 2 | 57.58 | +6.06 | 79.80 | 88.89 | 88.89 | 91.92 |
| 3 | 64.65 | +7.07 | 81.82 | 94.95 | 92.93 | 92.93 |
| 4 | 69.70 | +5.05 | 87.88 | 95.96 | 95.96 | 97.98 |
| Method | Accuracy | Precision | Recall | F1 |
| Ours | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| GPT-5 | 94.4 | 90.0 | 100.0 | 94.7 |
| Claude 4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| ForestFireVLM-7B | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Qwen2-Wildfire-2B | 94.4 | 100.0 | 88.9 | 94.1 |
| Method | Balanced accuracy | Accuracy |
| GPT-5 mini | 0.7646 | 0.8173 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 0.8563 | 0.9135 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | 0.8125 | 0.9135 |
| ForestFireVLM-7B | 0.8625 | 0.9231 |
| Qwen2-Wildfire-2B | 0.8375 | 0.7500 |
| Ours | 0.9625 | 0.9423 |
| Method | Mean AP | Largest-fire Hit@1 | Fire-area NDCG |
| GPT-5 | 0.930 | 0.658 | 0.947 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 0.946 | 0.850 | 0.973 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | 0.952 | 0.564 | 0.891 |
| ForestFireVLM-7B | 0.939 | 0.767 | 0.957 |
| Qwen2-Wildfire-2B | 0.844 | 0.547 | 0.883 |
| Ours | 0.950 | 0.850 | 0.984 |
Vision-Language Models
Vision-language models connect visual inputs with text for retrieval, question answering, generation, and grounded multimodal reasoning.
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