Verb-ICL: Rethinking In-Context Learning for Structured Prediction

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as conditional generators for structured data, relying on in-context learning (ICL) to adapt to new distributions without parameter updates. We investigate the limits of ICL for structured generation under distribution mismatch, using high-cardinality tabular data as a controlled test case, and identify a structural failure mode we term categorical prior lock-in: the inability of ICL to update the model's prior over token distributions inherited from pre-training. Across two 7B-parameter open-weight models, ICL improves numerical fidelity with additional examples but exhibits a sharp ceiling on categorical distributions, failing to reproduce rare classes entirely. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (LoRA) overcomes these limitations but introduces measurable memorization risk and, in some cases, destabilizes structured output generation, highlighting a fundamental trade-off between adaptability and privacy.

In-context learning (ICL) is an emerging paradigm that employs the semantic information inherent in large language models (LLMs) for generating answers to user queries. While the remarkable performance of ICL has been widely known, a general modeling and a rigorous theoretical analysis of this paradigm are still lacking. This work presents a probabilistic model for ICL and derives the performance of ICL for both general parametric distributions and exponential families. Based on the derived results, the work explains the impact of multiple factors such as the number of demonstrations, the sensitivity of the probabilistic model to the variation of its parameters, as well as the similarity between the demonstrations and the query on the performance of ICL.

In-context learning (ICL) can be amortized into latent objects (task vectors, function vectors, context vectors) that recover few-shot behavior at zero-shot inference cost, but recent theory shows a static vector acts as a single synthetic demonstration and must fail on high-rank mappings such as word-level bijections. We ask a linguistic version of this question: which linguistic operations can be amortized out of the prompt? We train a 2.6M-parameter network that reads the geometry of a few-shot support set (centroid, principal subspace, spectrum, computed once and cached) and produces an input-conditioned additive update to the query's residual stream at a mid-depth layer of a frozen GPT-2-large/XL. Across eight inflectional directions and one lexical relation, under a canonical split that bars inverted-pair leakage between directions, three regimes emerge. On forward inflection, where 10-shot ICL is strong (0.67-0.89) and extracted task vectors collapse (<=0.06), the transform matches ICL at strictly zero-shot per-query cost. On lemmatization directions, which frozen GPT-2 can execute but 10 demonstrations systematically fail to convey (ICL 0.13-0.48 at 1.5B), the transform is not capped by ICL at all: it reaches 0.78-0.92, up to +72 points over ICL (past to present: 0.85 vs. 0.13). On arbitrary pairings (antonymy) every amortizer plateaus near half of ICL at every scale, capacity, and seed tested. Controls show the support manifold acts as a causally necessary task fingerprint: wrong-task manifolds collapse accuracy to <=0.06, query-only variants cannot disambiguate tasks sharing an input space, and leave-one-task-out transfer is zero. Productive rules amortize into latent task representations, sometimes better than prompting can convey them; memorized pairings do not.