Categorical Prior Lock-in: Why In-Context Learning Fails for Structured Data

The factors driving the performance of in-context learning (ICL) in large language models (LLMs) remain poorly understood despite ICL's surprising effectiveness, enabling models to adapt to new tasks from only a handful of examples. To clarify and improve these capabilities, we characterize how the statistical properties of the pretraining distribution (e.g., tail behavior, coverage) shape ICL. We develop a theoretical framework that encompasses generalization and task selection and show how distributional properties govern sample efficiency, task retrieval, and robustness. To this end, we generalize existing concentration results to heavy-tailed priors and dependent sequences, better reflecting the structure of LLM pretraining data. Our framework reveals a fundamental design trade-off: heavy-tailed pretraining distributions facilitate robust task selection under distribution shifts but are detrimental to generalization, especially in low-data regimes. We then empirically evaluate our predictions by studying how ICL performance varies with the pretraining distribution on challenging tasks such as stochastic differential equations and stochastic processes with memory. Together, these findings suggest that controlling key statistical properties of the pretraining distribution is essential for building ICL-capable and reliable LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) operate in two fundamental learning modes - fine-tuning (FT) and in-context learning (ICL) - raising key questions about which mode yields greater language proficiency and whether they differ in their inductive biases. Prior studies comparing FT and ICL have yielded mixed and inconclusive results due to inconsistent experimental setups. To enable a rigorous comparison, we propose a formal language learning task - offering precise language boundaries, controlled string sampling, and no data contamination - and introduce a discriminative test for language proficiency, where an LLM succeeds if it assigns higher generation probability to in-language strings than to out-of-language strings. Empirically, we find that: (a) FT has greater language proficiency than ICL on in-distribution generalization, but both perform equally well on out-of-distribution generalization. (b) Their inductive biases, measured by the correlation in string generation probabilities, are similar when both modes partially learn the language but diverge at higher proficiency levels. (c) Unlike FT, ICL performance differs substantially across models of varying sizes and families and is sensitive to the token vocabulary of the language. Thus, our work demonstrates the promise of formal languages as a controlled testbed for evaluating LLMs, behaviors that are difficult to isolate in natural language datasets. Our source code is available at https://github.com/bishwamittra/formallm.

The knowledge encoded in large language models (LLMs) can serve as a substrate for structured reasoning over variables describing a complex world, but accessing this knowledge in a probabilistically coherent manner poses a difficult inference problem. We propose Large Language Gibbs, a scheme for structured probabilistic inference that uses conditional distributions of an LLM as transition operators. Rather than sampling structured objects through single-pass autoregressive generation, we iteratively resample individual variables conditioned on others using an LLM's next-token conditionals. This approach avoids order-dependent biases and produces a stationary distribution that reflects a compromise between all local conditionals. We apply this approach to sampling from synthetic distributions, consistent reasoning tasks, and Bayesian structure learning. The results suggest that the use of LLM conditionals in MCMC is a practical alternative to one-pass generation for structured probabilistic inference under a world prior accessible through noisy LLM conditionals.