MercerFlow: Flow Matching in a Kernel-Induced Latent Space for Probabilistic Forecasting

Generative modeling has shown strong promise for multivariate time mseries (MTS) forecasting, especially scale to high-dimensional settings. Diffusion-based methods achieve competitive performance but typically require many sampling steps at inference. VAE-based non-iterative forecasting frameworks have therefore emerged as an efficient alternative. Within this line of work, vector quantization (VQ) enables controllable latent space modeling by mapping multivariate series into compact discrete representations. Existing VQ-based forecasting methods, however, typically rely on autoregressive (AR) token generation, which suffers from exposure bias and training-inference mismatch. Flow matching provides an efficient non-autoregressive alternative for latent forecasting, but existing formulations usually initialize transport from a generic Gaussian prior. We instead observe that the trained VQ codebook already captures representative latent prototypes and can thus serve as a more informative prior for flow matching. Based on this insight, we propose ProtoFlow, a forecasting framework that combines vector-quantized autoencoding with Prototype-prior Flow matching. Our method first maps multivariate sequences into a discrete latent space, then constructs a structured prior from the learned codebook, and finally learns a DiT-based rectified flow to transport samples from this prior to future latent representations conditioned on historical observations. By replacing generic noise initialization with a learned prototype prior, ProtoFlow avoids the rollout mismatch of AR token prediction and promotes faster training convergence. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that it consistently achieves superior forecasting performance with efficient inference.

Time-series forecasting supports decisions in finance, en-ergy, transportation, public health, and industrial monitoring. Recent foundation models improve transfer across forecast-ing tasks, but many depend on centralized data and Trans-former attention, which restricts their use for long, high-di-mensional, and privacy-sensitive signals. This paper presents QuantFlow, a probabilistic forecasting framework that com-bines inverted sequence embedding, bidirectional Mamba state-space decoders, quantile regression, and federated learning. Each variable is embedded over the complete ob-servation window, processed in forward and reverse direc-tions, and projected to five conditional quantiles. TSMixup expands temporal diversity through Dirichlet-weighted inter-polation while preserving sequence structure. Experiments cover cryptocurrency, traffic, electricity, Electricity Trans-former Temperature, influenza, and weather data. QuantFlow obtains mean squared errors of 0.2834 on ETTm1 and 0.2218 on Weather, and a 20-client non-IID deployment retains use-ful accuracy after three communication rounds without cen-tralizing raw records. The results indicate that selective state-space modelling is a promising basis for scalable, uncer-tainty-aware, and privacy-conscious time-series prediction, while also revealing limitations on irregular epidemiological signals and long-horizon generalization.

Generating high-quality time-series data is challenging because real-world signals often exhibit multimodal patterns and multiscale dynamics, including oscillations and high-frequency variations. Flow Matching (FM) offers an efficient alternative to diffusion models, but practical implementations typically rely on a single finite-capacity global vector-field estimator. In such heterogeneous temporal distributions, distinct regimes may pass through nearby flow states while requiring incompatible conditional velocities. A monolithic estimator trained with the standard $\ell_2$ velocity-matching objective may therefore learn an overly smoothed approximation of the local transport field. This estimator-level smoothing can attenuate branch-specific dynamics, leading to spectral distortion and poor mode coverage. To address this, we propose PrismFlow, a new FM method with Koopman-inspired dynamical experts. Each expert learns residual corrections in a latent space where local nonlinear temporal evolution can be approximated by linear transitions. We further propose a confidence-aware Winner-Take-All (WTA) objective that updates only the expert best aligned with each sample while masking gradients to the others, encouraging mode-specific specialization. During sampling, the selected expert adds a residual dynamical correction to the global transport field, preserving FM stability while recovering fine-grained and high-frequency temporal structures. Across various benchmarks, PrismFlow effectively mitigates the spectral contraction in standard FM and achieves state-of-the-art performance, with a 15.6% gain in Context-FID and a 38.6% improvement in Discriminative Score, while remaining robust in low-data settings and effective for forecasting and imputation.