KESurv: A Kernel Ensemble Method for Patient-Specific Survival Prediction

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

Survival analysis on tabular data is a well-studied problem. However, existing deep learning methods are often highly task-specific, which can limit the transfer of new approaches from other domains and introduce constraints that may affect performance. We propose TabSurv, an approach that adapts modern tabular architectures to survival analysis using either the Weibull distribution or non-parametric survival prediction. TabSurv optimizes SurvHL, a novel histogram loss function supporting censored data. In addition to a baseline feed-forward network, we implement deep ensembles of MLPs for survival analysis within TabSurv. In contrast to prior work, the ensemble components are trained in parallel, optimizing survival distribution parameters before averaging, which promotes diversity across ensemble component predictions. We perform a comprehensive empirical evaluation of different proposed architectures on 10 diverse real-world survival datasets. Our results show that TabSurv consistently outperforms on average established classical and deep learning baselines, such as RSF, DeepSurv, DeepHit, SurvTRACE. Notably, deep ensembles with Weibull parametrization instead of non-parametric models achieve the highest average rank by C-index. Overall, our study clarifies how modern tabular neural networks can be adapted and trained to tackle survival analysis problems, offering a strong and reliable approach. The TabSurv implementation is publicly available.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched. Unlike in standard regression tasks, survival prediction models must account for censored data. Standard TFMs cannot handle natively censored data, leading to biased and inaccurate predictions, making them unsuitable for real-world applications. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose \texttt{SurvPFN}, a prior-data fitted network (PFN), for survival prediction tasks. We pretrain \texttt{SurvPFN} on millions of synthetic survival prediction tasks to learn survival via distributional regression that accounts for censored data. \texttt{SurvPFN} works by (1) generating data with Weibull event times and a non-informative censoring mechanism; (2) integrating a censored event indicator; and (3) minimizing a censored negative log-likelihood. On SurvSet, a collection of real-world survival tasks, \texttt{SurvPFN} is highly competitive with classical and deep survival baselines without per-dataset fitting, a survival-specific architecture, or feature engineering. We show that survival can be treated as a continuous-time distributional regression problem with censored loss, unlocking the power of PFNs for time-to-event predictions.