Tracking Is Not Permanence: What Video World Models Keep of a Hidden Object

Self-supervised video models are increasingly framed as world models, yet they are still evaluated almost entirely on clean video and reported as a final task score, obscuring how their representations behave under the degraded and ambiguous conditions a deployed world model must handle. We present the first systematic study of this component, analyzing four matched-capacity frontier self-supervised learning models that are strong candidates for world-model encoders -- V-JEPA 2.1, V-JEPA 2, VideoPrism, and VideoMAEv2 -- across five robustness axes relevant to their deployment as video world models: feature discriminability, corruption robustness, fine-grained discrimination, occlusion robustness, and sensitivity to temporal direction. We run the study on Something-Something-v2 and repeat every axis that ports on the egocentric EGTEA Gaze+, where the model ordering is unchanged. Our results reveal a distinct and consistent profile for latent-prediction models across all five axes. They degrade more gracefully under pixel corruption, preserve usable class structure rather than mere geometric stability under occlusion, capture fine-grained physical contact cues without reconstructing pixels, and uniquely encode the arrow of time. We finally test whether these representation-level differences matter for downstream world modeling, pairing each frozen encoder with an identical action-conditioned predictor and planner in a simulated manipulation environment. Only latent prediction yields near-complete task success, remains effective under degraded observations, and transfers to a manipulation task for which the predictor was never trained. Our results provide concrete new evidence that latent prediction is a promising foundation for robust world modeling.

Video world models are increasingly used to provide predictive visual representations, yet it remains unclear which pretraining signals induce action-relevant structure in their latent spaces. We study this question through a unified probe-based evaluation across diverse encoder families, including image-only self-supervision, video pretraining with and without latent prediction, reconstruction-based autoencoders, diffusion models, and shortcut-forcing dynamics models. Using a common inverse-dynamics probing objective, we find that action-relevant structure is driven primarily by temporal video pretraining rather than pixel reconstruction fidelity: models with strong pixel decoding quality can exhibit near-zero action recoverability, while video-pretrained self-supervised encoders consistently achieve the best Pareto trade-off between visual fidelity and action prediction. Comparing V-JEPA and VideoMAE further shows that most gains arise from natural-video temporal context, with feature-level latent prediction providing a smaller additional benefit. These trends transfer across robotic benchmarks, though CALVIN reveals that static-environment tasks can partially mask the importance of temporal structure by allowing strong image priors to suffice. Finally, inverse-dynamics supervision substantially improves robustness to visual corruption, suggesting that action-aware objectives regularize latent geometry beyond clean-setting performance. Our results identify temporal predictive structure -- not reconstruction fidelity -- as the primary ingredient underlying action-relevant video representations.

Predictive video models have emerged as promising world models by learning latent visual dynamics from large-scale video. Yet these models remain challenged by physical events under occlusion, where later predictions may depend on object evidence that is no longer available in the current view. Addressing this challenge requires historical evidence not only to be preserved but also to remain accessible when it becomes relevant to a subsequent prediction. Existing approaches mainly enlarge the temporal context, cache generic video features, or impose explicit object-centric states, thereby improving the capacity or structure of retained history. However, they do not directly address how relevant historical evidence can be selectively retrieved and integrated into a pretrained predictor without interfering with its native latent workspace. Accordingly, we introduce HERA (Historical Evidence Routing Adapter), a framework for routing retained historical evidence into a frozen latent predictor, and instantiate it with Register-Routed Patch Memory (RRPM), a lightweight adapter comprising a Structured Memory Bank, Memory Registers, and Workspace Registers. On the IntPhys2 Main split, HERA with RRPM improves the pairwise AvgSurprise accuracy of V-JEPA 2-G from 52.57% to 54.35%. Subgroup analysis shows particularly strong improvements on fixed-camera continuity, from 46.15% to 57.69%, and fixed-camera immutability, from 46.15% to 63.46%. These results support historical evidence routing as a practical adaptation strategy for physical prediction in latent world models.