Covariate-dependent Joint Modeling of Multivariate Ordinal Preferences and Its Connections with Comparison Models

Pairwise preference data is widely used in language-model evaluation and alignment, often for model ranking, reward modeling, or preference optimization. This note formulates a more basic measurement question: given a reference distribution of pairwise preferences, what model-level quantity is estimated when we test whether a model ranks preferred responses above rejected responses? We define pairwise reference alignment as an ordinal observable induced by a model scoring function. Given a reference pair distribution $P_{\mathrm{pair}}$ over triples $(x,y^+,y^-)$, and a scalar model score $S_M(x,y)$, we define the alignment observable as the probability that the model-induced ordering agrees with the reference preference ordering. We further define a centered order-parameter-like statistic and discuss a margin-based extension. The resulting quantities admit simple finite-sample estimators and concentration bounds under independent sampling assumptions. This note does not introduce a new benchmark. It provides a conceptual and statistical formulation for pairwise reference alignment, clarifies the role of the reference pair distribution, and distinguishes the general ordinal observable from scoring choices such as normalized log-probability or energy-based scores. We also provide an initial empirical study on Qwen2.5 models and RewardBench, where the proposed statistics increase with model size and instruction tuning and vary across reference-pair subsets as predicted by the formulation.

In this paper, we study prediction problems for paired comparison data, for example, predicting the win probability between two unmatched players and ranking all the players according to the order of their strengths by using win probability data between two matched players. Paired comparison data are typically analyzed using Bradley-Terry and Thurstone-Mosteller models. These models predict the win probability by transforming the difference between learned rate parameters, which represent players';strengths, with a pre-specified inverse link function, and employ the order of learned rate parameters for player ranking. However, these models may suffer from model misspecification owing to the selection of a fixed inverse link function. Therefore, in this study, we propose to learn the rate parameters by a (sub-)gradient method and the inverse link function by an isotonic regression technique alternately. The proposed model guarantees monotonic improvement in training error, and is likely to yield an exact tie when the available data is insufficient to establish a strict ranking. We also verified that the proposed model could improve the win probability prediction and ranking performance through numerical experiments with synthetic data and real-world data of football Premier League, baseball MLB, and tennis ATP tour.

We study learning a mixture of $k$ Plackett-Luce models from multi-way ranking responses from annotators that may represent heterogeneous underlying preferences. This problem has many applications in AI alignment and preference optimization. Prior work has studied mixtures of Bradley-Terry models from pairwise comparisons. However, estimating a mixture of multi-way ranking models can become theoretically unidentifiable when $k$ exceeds $m/2$, where $m$ is the ranking length. We design an efficient algorithm to address this issue by first augmenting the rankings to a larger size (e.g., generating comparisons from a base model), followed by a gradient-based estimation to reduce inference cost (in the input embedding space). With this procedure in mind, we then fit a mixture of Plackett-Luce (PL) models via an expectation-maximization-style iteration, or MoPLEx in short. We conduct extensive experiments to verify this algorithm. First, we find that the gradient-based approximation estimates true probabilities with less than 5% error on models with up to 34 billion parameters. Second, MoPLEx improves clustering and ranking accuracy by an average of 43.7% and 15.2% over baselines using a single PL model or a mixture of Bradley-Terry models, on UltraFeedback and PERSONA datasets. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of MoPLEx for tackling multi-way rankings following heterogeneous preferences through measuring alignment via gradients.