Closing the Loop on Contrail Avoidance with Satellite Verification

Tropical cyclones are growing more destructive in a changing climate, and efficient forecasting of their structure and track has become a necessity. Deep generative models promise an alternative to computationally expensive numerical weather prediction (NWP), yet current systems produce either satellite imagery or atmospheric fields, never both; they need many sampling steps, putting them out of reach of modest hardware; and their storm tracks come from regression heads with no physical link to the generated atmosphere. This work presents a single-pass model that jointly forecasts GRIDSAT-B1 infrared imagery and four ERA5 atmospheric fields (U-wind, V-wind, air temperature, and surface pressure) out to nine hours. A five-channel variational autoencoder compresses each 5 x 256 x 256 frame to a 4 x 64 x 64 latent, and a conditional rectified-flow UNet with a factorized temporal-attention module predicts the next three frames from three past frames, their best-track coordinates, and timestamps. The model is then reward-fine-tuned (DRaFT) against a differentiable track error derived from the predicted winds through a steering-flow calculation. On held-out 2022 storms the model reaches 16.35 dB PSNR and 0.759 SSIM, ahead of a reproduced cascaded-diffusion baseline at every lead time (+0.84 dB at +9 h) while sampling ~30x faster (56 ms vs. 1673 ms). Track error at +9 h is 62.4 km, 15% below the baseline, and a reward fine-tuning study demonstrates a further 8-11% track-error reduction across sampler budgets.

Shadows cast by terrain and tall structures remain a major obstacle for high-resolution satellite image analysis, degrading classification, detection, and 3D reconstruction performance. Public resources offering geometry-consistent paired shadow/shadow-free satellite imagery are essentially missing, and most Earth-observation datasets are designed for shadow detection or 3D modelling rather than removal. Existing deep shadow-removal datasets either target ground-level or aerial scenes or rely on unpaired and weakly supervised formulations rather than explicit satellite pairs. We address this gap with deSEO, a geometry-aware and physics-informed methodology that, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to derive paired supervision for satellite shadow removal from the S-EO shadow detection dataset through a fully replicable pipeline. For each tile, deSEO selects a minimally shadowed acquisition as a weak reference and pairs it with shadowed counterparts using temporal and geometric filtering, Jacobian-based orientation normalisation, and LoFTR-RANSAC registration. A per-pixel validity mask restricts learning to reliably aligned regions, enabling supervision despite residual off-nadir parallax. In addition to this paired dataset, we develop a DSM-aware deshadowing model that combines residual translation, perceptual objectives, and mask-constrained adversarial learning. In contrast, a direct adaptation of a UAV-based SRNet/pix2pix architecture fails to converge under satellite viewpoint variability. Our model consistently reduces the visual impact of cast shadows across diverse illumination and viewing conditions, achieving improved structural and perceptual fidelity on held-out scenes. deSEO therefore provides the first reproducible, geometry-aware paired dataset and baseline for shadow removal in satellite Earth observation.

Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that require fine-grained spatiotemporal detail. Here we introduce AirCast-SR, a foundation model for atmospheric super-resolution that downscales global AI weather forecasts from 0.25 degree (~28 km) to 1 km horizontal resolution at hourly temporal resolution, producing 67-hour forecasts of eight coupled surface variables simultaneously. EarthMind-SR employs a three-dimensional U-Net conditioned within a Latent Consistency Model (LCM) diffusion framework, trained on patch-based samples over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using GraphCast forecasts as input and NOAA's Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) as the target. The model achieves near-zero bias across all variables and lead times, and its radial power spectral density analysis demonstrates preservation of fine-scale atmospheric structure at wavelengths of 10 km to 100 km where coarser models lose spectral power. We validate EarthMind-SR across three CONUS case studies spanning winter, summer, and spring seasons, and demonstrate zero-shot global transferability over India and Germany using independent surface station observations without any retraining or fine-tuning. As an open-weights foundation model, EarthMind-SR establishes a new paradigm for kilometer-scale AI weather prediction and provides a platform for regional fine-tuning, distillation, and downstream applications in climate services and hazard forecasting.