Causal-fate dynamics of unrealized influence

Action-conditioned time-series forecasting requires accounting for how future actions and exogenous forcings influence multiple targets through partially observed effects with different delays and persistence. Direct conditioning leaves the evolution and target-specific influence of these effects implicit in the predictor, while static relational graphs specify connections without tracking evolving effects. This motivates representing future-driver influence through structured latent states that evolve over the forecast horizon and route information to individual targets. We introduce BeliefGraph-JEPA, a structured latent world model that factorizes driver influence into typed latent-effect states. These states are rolled forward under future drivers and routed through a graph to target-specific nodes, forming the predictive base of a joint-embedding predictive architecture. A capacity-controlled residual supplements this base with direct driver information. On four multi-target clinical, agricultural, environmental, and industrial systems, the framework outperforms a range of pretrained and supervised known-future-covariate baselines. Matched controls isolate latent dynamics, future rollout, graph routing, and residual capacity; future rollout and graph-first residual routing improve forecasting across all four systems.

Aggregate performance on continuous-time dynamic graphs (CTDGs) combines, in a single score, the portion attributable to known temporal regularities and the additional predictive power of neural models. This study separates the two at the query level. We construct a mechanism-constrained predictor that uses pair recurrence, recency and history position, renewal patterns, and short sequential transitions while learning the compatibility within each mechanism. Across four CTDG datasets, this predictor recovers a substantial portion of the performance of strong neural baselines, and the recovered performance quickly saturates with a small, dataset-specific set of explicit mechanisms. Neural residuals concentrate on queries for which the positive and negative candidates have similar mechanism-execution profiles. Allowing conditional interactions among mechanisms is more effective than simply reweighting their existing contributions. Conditioning the contribution of one mechanism on the execution state of another recovers 54.9-73.2% of the original neural-only queries and improves overall paired accuracy on all four datasets. Although the magnitude of the effect varies across datasets, these results show that the performance gap of neural CTDG models need not be treated solely as an opaque difference in representational capacity. At least part of the gap is localized to queries with similar candidate execution profiles and can be functionally explained by conditional coordination among known, low-dimensional mechanisms.

Identical language-model answers can arise from hidden states that support different future computations, so current-answer probes do not establish a reusable internal interface. We introduce forked futures: future operations are sampled only after a prefix state has formed, and states are compared through the response distributions induced by those operations. This yields an empirical causal quotient over hidden states without requiring researcher-specified latent labels. Shared, Local, Mixture, and Distributed interfaces then compete under prequential causal description length subject to future-signature fidelity and matched capacity constraints. In the two detailed model evaluations, Shared has the lowest held-out description length, with gains of 0.216 nats on Qwen2.5-1.5B and 0.294 nats on Llama-3-8B, while maintaining tightly clustered mean future-signature distortion; a five-backbone sweep preserves the positive direction of Sharedness Gain. The figure-aligned transplantation analysis gives Shared the strongest joint target-correctness, locality, copy-preservation, and composite profile, and API-aligned paths mediate 0.749 of the target effect versus 0.150 for matched null paths. In the blind four-class model-organism test, 14/16 architectures are recovered, with one observed non-Shared to Shared error among 12 non-Shared organisms. These results support an economical reusable causal interface within the tested operation banks, while keeping the claim explicitly conditional on the candidate architectures, interventions, and held-out futures.