Universal Bounds for Self-Normalized Kullback-Leibler Estimation

We study the statistical complexity of estimating partition functions given sample access to a proposal distribution and an unnormalized density ratio for a target distribution. While partition function estimation is a classical problem, existing guarantees typically rely on structural assumptions about the domain or model geometry. We instead provide a general, information-theoretic characterization that depends only on the relationship between the proposal and target distributions. Our analysis introduces the integrated coverage profile, a functional that quantifies how much target mass lies in regions where the density ratio is large. We show that integrated coverage tightly characterizes the sample complexity of multiplicative partition function estimation and provide matching lower bounds. We further express these bounds in terms of $f$-divergences, yielding sharp phase transitions depending on the growth rate of f and recovering classical results as a special case while extending to heavy-tailed regimes. Matching lower bounds establish tightness in all regimes. As applications, we derive improved finite-sample guarantees for importance sampling and self-normalized importance sampling, and we show a strict separation between the complexity of approximate sampling and counting under the same divergence constraints. Our results unify and generalize prior analyses of importance sampling, rejection sampling, and heavy-tailed mean estimation, providing a minimal-assumption theory of partition function estimation. Along the way we introduce new technical tools including new connections between coverage and $f$-divergences as well as a generalization of the classical Paley-Zygmund inequality.

Discrete diffusion models have emerged as a practically successful framework for generative modeling on discrete product spaces, yet their statistical generalization properties remain poorly understood. Discrete real-world data such as text or biological sequences often concentrate on a small fraction of the astronomically large ambient space because of semantic or physical constraints, but existing bounds fail to capture this distributional structure and instead scale with the size of the ambient space, giving rise to almost vacuous error bounds. We address this gap for uniform discrete diffusion, one of the two dominant discrete diffusion paradigms alongside masking diffusion, by deriving statistical guarantees governed by the effective support size $s_n(P_0)$, a sample-size-dependent measure of distributional complexity. Given $n$ independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from an unknown data distribution $P_0$ on $[K]^d$, we show that, with appropriate choices of network size and hyperparameters, the expected total variation (TV) loss scales as $O(\sqrt{s_n(P_0)/n})$, while the expected Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence is bounded by $O(\frac{1}{n}s_n(P_0)\log(eK^d/s_n(P_0))\log n)$. Furthermore, we show that the TV rate is minimax optimal and that the KL rate is minimax optimal up to a factor of $\log n$. Together, these upper and lower bounds show that uniform discrete diffusion successfully avoids the curse of dimensionality for distributions with small effective support size: the TV error rate depends on the ambient state-space size only through $s_n(P_0)$, while the corresponding KL rate incurs only an additional logarithmic dependence on the ambient state-space size.

Normalizing flow Boltzmann generators retain a tractable pushforward density, but training with forward KL depends on target samples that may be biased or omit modes. As a result, a flow can miss target mass while its observed importance weights give a high effective sample size. We introduce the log-ratio variation $\X_ω$, the mean absolute pairwise difference of the target-to-pushforward log-density ratio under a weighting measure $ω$, and use it to define KLXX, a new loss function. Two log-ratio variations are added to the forward KL (denoted by the two X's): one weighted by the target to improve accuracy, the other by a mixture of quench and temper samples with pushforward samples to search candidate modes. We derive the Fisher--Rao gradient flow of KLXX, where both variations contribute nonpositive dissipation, and a fixed-surrogate error bound for KLXX. We use KLXX in an adaptive-staging Boltzmann generator, with importance reweighting at every stage. We bound the sampling error of its inference scheme when the stage weights are essentially bounded, and prove it asymptotically unbiased in the sample size. In the numerical tests, KLXX improves mode coverage over forward KL. It also improves the generator's per-stage diagnostics against the loss that built the schedule. The observables the generator recovers are close to independent references. The log-ratio variations thus supply information that the forward KL loss usually omits.