Beyond Second-Order Information: Paid Logistic Regression with Noisy Features

We determine the minimax cumulative log-loss regret of a finite-alphabet, exogenously driven source with genuinely infinite input memory: independent Rademacher inputs $(U_t)$ are observed sequentially and the next binary mark has logit $\sum_{j\ge1}θ_jU_{t+1-j}$, the unknown coefficients obeying a summable envelope $|θ_j|\le r_j$, $\sum_jr_j\le B$. At horizon $T$, lag $j$ can move the logit by at most $r_j$ and is exercised in only $n_{T,j}=(T-j+1)_+$ rounds, and the two limitations combine into the sum $Γ_T(r)=\sum_{j\le T}\log(1+n_{T,j}r_j^{2})$. One coordinate-localised Bayesian mixture achieves $R_T(r)\le CΓ_T(r)$ for every summable envelope with $C$ universal. Our main result is a matching nonasymptotic converse for the canonical exponential and polynomial envelopes; its new ingredients are a modular finite-sample information bound for logistic experiments with an exogenous random design, and a conditioning estimate for the overlapping Toeplitz lag matrix obtained by exhibiting each off-diagonal Gram sum as a sum of independent Rademacher variables indexed by the edges of a forest, needing neither local asymptotic normality nor any spectral theorem for random Toeplitz matrices. So $Γ_T(r)$ is the minimax regret scale here, giving $Θ(α^{-1}\log^{2}T)$ for $r_j=Ae^{-αj}$ and $Θ(T^{1/(2s)})$ for $r_j=Aj^{-s}$, $s>1$ --- the latter without the extra $(\log T)^{1-1/(2s)}$ factor any window-truncation analysis pays. We also show memory decay cannot determine regret, and that a profile-scaled online Newton predictor attains $O_B(Γ_T(r))$ in polynomial time per round.

We study linear contextual bandits with paid observations, where at each round the learner observes a context, selects an action, and may pay a fixed cost to observe feedback from a subset of arms. We propose two Follow-the-Regularized-Leader algorithms with Best-of-Both-Worlds guarantees. The first, Agg-SPB, extends the SPB-matching framework of Tsuchiya and Ito (2024) by aggregating context-dependent stability terms, achieving the characteristic $T^{2/3}$ adversarial regret rate and logarithmic dependence on $T$ in stochastic environments. The second, CE-SPB, combines arm-dependent observation probabilities with an entropy-adaptive learning rate inspired by Kuroki et al. (2024). It achieves an entropy-adaptive $\widetilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ adversarial guarantee and polylogarithmic stochastic regret, while avoiding the minimum-context-mass dependence arising in the stochastic analysis of Agg-SPB. Both algorithms further extend to corrupted stochastic environments with explicit corruption-dependent guarantees. These results establish that logarithmic stochastic regret is compatible with the $T^{2/3}$ adversarial regime for linear contextual bandits with paid observations, while highlighting a tradeoff between sharper horizon dependence in stochastic settings and path-dependent matching without explicit minimum-context-mass dependence.

We study online convex optimization with one unbiased stochastic subgradient per round and an unknown finite conditional $p$th noise moment, $1<p\le2$. For every fixed interval $I$ of length $n$ and comparator path with $Λ_I=1+P_I/D$, one learner achieves $$E[Regret_I(u)]\le\min(GDn, C[GD\sqrt{n(Λ_I+\log^2(2T))} +σDn^{1/p}(Λ_I+\log^2(2T))^{(p-1)/p}]).$$ The learner uses none of $G,σ,p,I,P_I$, and the constant is universal. Interval adaptation adds to comparator complexity, preserving the distinct mean-gradient and noise exponents. The analysis controls calibration in expectation and limits the cost of observation-scale changes. Its general theorem compares to distributions over predictably available experts with relative-entropy dependence on a nonuniform prior. A common prior favors long windows and long restart lengths. With the statistics supplied, the interval cost becomes $1+\log(T/n)$, including the optimal full-horizon static rate. A change-of-measure lower bound identifies the noise power of this logarithm for learners retaining a full-horizon optimal guarantee, under explicit conditions. Static comparisons and deterministic partitions follow from the same decisions.