eess.IVOct 9, 2026

Radiomics-Based Thyroid Nodule Classification with Label-Conditional Conformal Prediction

Authors: Laura Testa, Pierpaolo Brutti, Umberto Ferraro Petrillo

Organizations: Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy.

Abstract

Thyroid nodule malignancy assessment relies on ultrasound imaging, yet current risk stratification systems suffer from substantial interobserver variability, contributing to a high rate of unnecessary biopsies. We propose a radiomics-based framework combining quantitative feature extraction via PyRadiomics with a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) classifier, selected among six candidates for its favorable trade-off between discriminative performance and interpretability. To complement point predictions with uncertainty estimates, Cross-Conformal Prediction with label-conditional guarantees is applied, flagging ambiguous cases for clinical review rather than forcing a binary decision. Experiments are conducted on TN5000, a publicly available ultrasound dataset of thyroid nodules. After Spearman correlation filtering, 36 features are retained and the GAM achieves an AUC of 0.890.89, a sensitivity of 0.830.83, and a specificity of 0.820.82 on the validation set. At a significance level ε=0.09ε=0.09, selected to ensure empirical coverage guarantees on both classes, 63% of nodules on the test set receive a certain (i.e., single-label) prediction, with conditional precision of 0.940.94 for certain malignant and conditional Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.730.73 for certain benign cases, while the remaining 37% are referred to the clinician.

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