Clinical Risk Prediction

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Overview

Clinical risk prediction estimates the likelihood and timing of outcomes such as deterioration, complications, readmission, or disease onset to support screening and care decisions. Methods range from logistic and Cox regression and clinical scores to gradient-boosted trees, survival models, temporal neural networks, and multimodal systems combining EHR data, notes, images, and wearable signals. Current work also explores calibration, uncertainty estimates, explainability, and privacy-preserving learning across hospitals. A central challenge is ensuring that strong results reflect genuine future risk and remain reliable across populations and settings, rather than being inflated by data leakage or weakened by distribution shift.

Latest papers

CardsList

218 papers21 papers in the last four weeks, down 5% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Beyond Physical Illness: Can Clinical Narratives Reveal Emerging Mental Health Risks in Chronically Ill Patients?

    Oct 26, 2026Sudeshna Jana, Siddhartha Laha, Manjira Sinha +2Mental HealthClinical Risk Prediction

    IIT Kharagpur, India

  2. Local Discrimination of Binary Classifiers via Localized AUC Functional

    Oct 22, 2026Wenye Ren, Anna Győrffy-Kerekes, Tancredi Dorsi +1Binary ClassificationClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland · Department of Computer Science, Tsinghua University, China · Center for Learning Systems, Max Planck Institute, Tübingen, Germany +2

  3. Unit-Aware Differentially Private Quantum Machine Learning for Clinical and Wearable Health Data

    Oct 20, 2026Md Khalid Syfullah, Alvi Ataur KhalilPrivacy-Preserving MLQuantum Machine Learning

    Computer Science, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, USA

  4. ITU-DESC: a missingness-aware machine-learning dementia risk score in the UK Biobank cohort

    Oct 19, 2026Abdullah Kavaklı, Faik Boray TekClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Artificial Intelligence and Data Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.

  5. TRACE: Tracking Multimodal Clinical Trajectories for Inpatient Risk Prediction

    Oct 19, 2026Minjun Kim, Jong Hak MoonClinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Yeji X

  6. Auto-MD-bench: Evaluating Autoresearch Agents for Real-World Medical Tasks

    Oct 18, 2026Shenqi Zhou, Qiran Zou, Wenhao Zhao +2Medical AI AgentsAutonomous Research Agents

    National University of Singapore · Zhejiang University · Amazon

  7. DeliMF: Gated Cross-Attention Fusion of Structured Time Series and Clinical Text for Early Intensive Care Delirium Prediction

    Oct 17, 2026Yibo Yang, Zerui Huang, Haomiao Yang +1Clinical PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Independent Researcher, China · Xinjin District People’s Hospital, China · University of Exeter, United Kingdom

  8. Alert-List Concordance for Evaluating Imputation Strategies in ICU Sepsis Prediction

    Oct 15, 2026Priyanka Siddappa, Muntaqim Ahmed Raju, Shifat Haider Al Amin +1Incomplete Data ImputationClinical Risk Prediction

    Miner School of Computer & Information Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA 01854, USA

  9. GraphBEAT: Graph-based Bucketized Event Aggregation Over Time for Early Risk Stratification of Gastrointestinal Cancers

    Oct 15, 2026Leo Y. Li-Han, Chris Varghese, Elizabeth B. Habermann +4Clinical Risk PredictionLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Department of Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA · Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery and the Department of Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA · Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery and the Department of Artificial Intelligence and Informatics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA

  10. Incentivizing Tool-Use Reinforcement Learning for Post-Arrival Emergency Care Prediction

    Oct 15, 2026Pengfei Hu, Chenwei Wu, Qiao Jin +4Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Stevens Institute of Technology · University of Michigan, Ann Arbor · National Institutes of Health +1

  11. Tensor-based Fusion of Multi-modal Data for Predicting Cancer Risk Levels

    Oct 9, 2026Ali Anaissi, Yuanzhe Jia, Qishun Peng +3Clinical Risk PredictionMultimodal Fusion

    University of Sydney, Australia · University of Technology Sydney, Australia · University of New South Wales, Australia

  12. SepsisLens: Structure-Preserving Sequence Modelling for Decomposable Early Sepsis Warning

    Oct 6, 2026Yikun Ou, Wei LiSepsis PredictionInterpretable ML

    School of Computer Science, University of Sydney Sydney, Australia

  13. Cite What You Explore: Budget-Aware LLM Reasoning over Medical KGs with Verifiable Evidence

    Oct 6, 2026Chen Chen, Dongjie Wang, Mei Liu +1LLM Reasoning with GraphsEvidence-Grounded Reasoning

    Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Kansas, USA · Health Outcomes and Biomedical Informatics, University of Florida, USA

  14. DeepAJM: Deep Association Joint Model for Irregularly Sampled data

    Oct 5, 2026Barsha Halder, Jeffrey A. ThompsonIrregular Time-Series ModelingSurvival Analysis

    Department of Biostatistics & Data Science, University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, KS, USA

  15. Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes: A Theory-Grounded Approach to Personalized Suicide-Risk Forecasting for Clinical Decision-Support

    Oct 5, 2026Yaniv Yacoby, Weiwei Pan, Hope Neveux +4Latent Variable ModelsSuicide Risk Modeling

    Wellesley College · Harvard University · Harvard University Harvard Medical School Massachusetts General Hospital

  16. LifeLong Digital Twin: A Unified Modeling Paradigm and Agent Harness for Event-Driven Lifelong Health State Trajectories

    Oct 4, 2026Jin Jiang, Sean Yates, Jasper Chong +4Clinical PredictionDigital Twins

    Peking University · VITA-Med Group

  17. Fixing a Model That Learned Worse Cancer Means Lower Risk: Monotonic Constraints in Bladder Cancer Recurrence Prediction

    Oct 1, 2026Saram Abbas, David Thomas, Naeem Soomro +3Counterfactual EvaluationGradient-Boosted Decision Trees

    School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK · Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK · Department of Urology, Freeman Hospital, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK +1

  18. Explainable Suicide Risk Assessment on Social Media with Multi-Task QLoRA

    Sep 30, 2026Xuan Zhong Feng, Geoffrey Martin, Hexin Dong +1Social Media AnalysisMulti-Task Learning

    Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA · Systems Engineering, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA

  19. OverdoseMoE: A Multi-Expert Framework for Opioid Overdose Risk Prediction

    Sep 30, 2026Mingchen Li, Rohan Pandey, Junhui Qian +3Mixture of ExpertsLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Manning College of Information and Computer Sciences, UMass Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA · Center for Healthcare Organization and Implementation Research, VA Bedford Health Care, Bedford, MA, USA · Miner School of Computer and Information Sciences, UMass Lowell, Lowell, MA, USA

  20. From Image Interpretation to Clinical Reasoning: Upstream Physician-Context-Aware Multimodal Learning with Causal Reinforcement Learning

    Sep 30, 2026Jialu Pi, Yanan Ma, Weijie Chen +8Clinical Outcome PredictionMultimodal Reasoning

    Dept. of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ, USA · School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA · Dept. of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, USA +2

  21. Disentangling Lung-Cancer CT/LDCT AI: A Systematic Evidence Map of Clinical Tasks, Evidence Chains, and Translational Gaps

    Sep 28, 2026Surajit DasMedical Image AnalysisComputed Tomography

  22. Unknown is not normal: separating language-model extraction from rule-based decision logic for clinical risk scores

    Sep 28, 2026Nicolás Vera ZúñigaClinical Decision SupportLearning with Missing Data

    Independent Researcher, Chile

  23. A Leakage-Aware Multimodal Evaluation Framework for Early Intraoperative Acute Kidney Injury Prediction

    Sep 22, 2026Quang Minh Nguyen, Duc Minh Le, Ho Nhat Minh Nguyen +2Temporal Convolutional NetworksClinical Prediction

    National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam

  24. MedGate-Fusion: Integrating First-Encounter Semantic Narratives and Physiological Biomarkers for Prospective Stroke Risk Stratification

    Sep 21, 2026Hemn Khdr, Mohammad Noaeen, Karim Keshavjee +2Gated Multimodal FusionMultimodal Fusion

    Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada · Department of Information Technology Management, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Canada · Faculty of Information, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada +1

  25. Pharmacokinetic State Space Models for Unbiased Prediction of Haemodynamic Collapse

    Sep 21, 2026Rithin Nagaraj, Sudiksha Chindula, Bhaskarjyoti DasClinical PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, PES University, Bengaluru, 560085, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering (AIML), PES University, Bengaluru, 560085, India

  26. Misaligned Clinical Risk Classification and Cost Asymmetry in Open-Weight Large Language Models

    Sep 21, 2026Star S. D. Liu, Xiyu Ding, Robert B. Barrett +3Cost-Sensitive LearningLLM Interpretability

    Biomedical Informatics and Data Science, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA · Microsoft, Redmond, WA, USA · National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA

  27. Calibration-First Cross-Cohort Multimodal Temporal Learning for Transferable Asthma-Risk Forecasting

    Sep 17, 2026Taimoor AhmadClinical Risk PredictionClinical Outcome Prediction

    Superior University Lahore, Pakistan

  28. Mammography Foundation Models for Opportunistic Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

    Sep 16, 2026Paula Feldman, Nusrat Binta Nizam, Sunwoo Kwak +3Medical Imaging Foundation ModelsClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Radiology, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA · Cornell Tech, New York, NY, USA · Cornell University, New York, NY, USA

  29. Knowledge-Enriched Structured EHR Features for 30-Day Hospital Readmission Prediction on MIMIC-IV

    Sep 14, 2026Mohamad Najafi, Hongyun Fu, Mathias Brochhausen +2Clinical Outcome PredictionElectronic Health Records

    Old Dominion University, Virginia, USA · University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Arkansas, USA

  30. Optimizing for the decision not the prediction: an exploration of Smooth Net Benefit as a training objective

    Sep 11, 2026Koen M. F. Gorgels, Lasai Barreñada, Maarten van Smeden +3Predict-Then-OptimizeDecision-Focused Learning

    Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands · Coo peratie VGZ, Arnhem, the Netherlands · Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium