AMLworld-Compact: Importance-Weighted Downsampling for Cost-Effective LLM Evaluation and Error Diagnosis
Organizations: SCB DataX, SCBX Group · Independent Researcher
Abstract
Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on AMLworld's smallest test splits is costly because each of over a million targets requires a separate graph prompt. Sampling reduces this cost, but small balanced subsets change unweighted precision and F1. We introduce AMLworld-Compact, an evaluation set that retains every illicit test transaction and samples benign transactions from supervised-score strata. Its HT-Coreset protocol reduces evaluation targets by 271x and 611x on HI-Small and LI-Small. Horvitz-Thompson weights give unbiased full-test confusion-count estimates for fixed predictions; recall is exact, while precision and F1 are ratio estimates. In a held-out study using Graph Feature Preprocessor (GFP) features, one boosted-tree family defines strata for evaluating the other over 500 draws per configuration. At the released sizes, F1 RMSE is 0.00-2.58 percentage points versus 4.44-7.41 for uniform sampling with HT weights; conservative intervals remain broad. Under the evaluated graph prompts, seven open-weight LLMs have weighted precision near the predict-all-illicit baseline. In an outcome-stratified audit of 1,000 HI-Small few-shot outputs from one run per model, lexical checks pass for 84.5% of correct and 56.2% of incorrect binary verdicts, so these markers do not establish correctness. We release the evaluation sets, construction code, and audit tools at https://huggingface.co/datasets/typhoon-ai/AMLworldCompactEval and https://github.com/nat-nischw/AMLworld-Compact.
Figures & tables
| HI-Small | LI-Small | |
|---|---|---|
| Full test edges | ||
| Retained targets | ||
| Illicit edges (all retained) | ||
| Full-test illicit rate | ||
| Subset illicit rate | ||
| Target-count reduction |
| Sampler | F1 RMSE (pp) | F1 CI width (pp) | Coverage (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HI-Small: LGB XGB | |||
| Uniform + HT | 6.76 | 40.3 | 100.0 |
| Terciles + HT | 6.74 | 58.7 | 99.6 |
| HT-Coreset | 0.00 | 55.0 | 100.0 |
| HI-Small: XGB LGB | |||
| Uniform + HT | 7.41 | 40.4 | 99.8 |
| HT-weighted (full test) | Unweighted (subset) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | M | F1 | Lift | F1 | P | R | TF1 |
| GPT-OSS-20B | FS | 0.236 | 0.96 | 46.4 | 32.8 | 79.2 | 10.5 |
| GPT-OSS-20B | ZS | 0.246 | 1.00 | 49.9 | 33.3 | 99.5 | 5.6 |
| Qwen3.5-27B | FS | 0.240 | 0.98 | 40.7 | 32.5 | 54.5 | 10.1 |
| Qwen3.5-27B | ZS | 0.230 | 0.94 | 45.8 | 31.6 | 82.9 | 6.3 |
| Nem-Nano-30B | FS | 0.245 | 1.00 | 49.5 | 33.4 | 95.4 | 7.5 |
| Detection outcome | Illicit | Benign | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both correct | 652 | 311 | 0.69 |
| ML only correct | 59 | 2,064 | 0.08 |
| LLM only correct | 410 | 23 | 0.13 |
| Both wrong | 130 | 104 | 0.40 |
| Binary verdict | Full trace | First 8k chars | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Correct | 470 | 397 (84.5%) | 388 (82.6%) |
| Incorrect | 530 | 298 (56.2%) | 295 (55.7%) |
Appendix figures & tables24 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Typology | HI-Small | LI-Small | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | |||
| gather-scatter | ||||
| scatter-gather | ||||
| fan-in | ||||
| fan-out | ||||
| cycle | ||||
| Source | Cap | Purpose | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altman et al. (2023) | GNN training | ||
| Pirmorad (2025) | — † | — | LLM ICL |
| Ours | LLM ICL |
| Model | Arch | Active | Context | TP | temp | top_p | top_k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-20B | MoE | 3.6B | 128K | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — |
| Nemotron-3-Nano-30B | MoE | 3B | 256K | 2 | 1.0 | 0.95 | — |
| Qwen3.5-35B-A3B | MoE | 3B | 256K | 2 | 0.6 | 0.95 | 20 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | MoE | 5.1B | 128K | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — |
| Nemotron-3-Super-120B | MoE | 12B | 256K | 4 | 1.0 | 0.95 | — |
| Qwen3.5-397B-A17B | MoE | 17B | 256K | 8 | 0.6 | 0.95 | 20 |
| F1 | P | R | ||
| HI-Small (Full: P=93.1, R=57.2, F1=70.9) | ||||
| B1 Random | 18.1 | 15.6 | 22.3 | 24.7 |
| B2 Stratified | 16.0 | 11.1 | 18.0 | 19.9 |
| B3 No IW | 1.9 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| B4 No Hard-Neg | 2.6 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 |
| B5 Fogliato | 6.3 | 3.7 | 8.7 | 7.9 |
| Sampler | P RMSE | F1 bias | F1 RMSE | F1 width | Cov. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI-Small: LGB XGB, benign budget illicit count | |||||
| Uniform + HT | 14.46 | +0.48 | 5.04 | 29.6 | 100.0 |
| Terciles + HT | 13.84 | +0.63 | 4.74 | 49.6 | 100.0 |
| HT-Coreset | 0.00 | +0.00 | 0.00 | 44.9 | 100.0 |
| HI-Small: LGB XGB, benign budget illicit count | |||||
| Uniform + HT | 10.63 | +0.38 | 3.64 | 21.0 | 100.0 |
| Method | F1 | P | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| HI-Small | |||
| LightGBM+GFP | 65.7 1.2 | 77.9 4.4 | 56.9 0.7 |
| XGBoost+GFP | 67.7 0.3 | 81.7 2.1 | 57.8 0.6 |
| Two boosters | 67.8 0.2 | 84.3 0.5 | 56.7 0.2 |
| LI-Small | |||
| LightGBM+GFP | 27.5 0.5 | 50.0 4.9 | 19.0 0.4 |
| Method | LightGBM | XGBoost | GCPAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| HI-Small | |||
| B1 Random | 1.1 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| B2 Stratified | 15.8 | 19.8 | 9.1 |
| B3 No IW | 3.0 | 2.3 | 5.3 |
| B4 No Hard-Neg | 4.5 | 2.3 | 5.3 |
| B5 Fogliato | 7.7 | 8.2 | 1.4 |
| P | R | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 Random | |||||
| B2 Stratified | |||||
| B3 No IW | — | ||||
| B4 No Hard-Neg | |||||
| B5 Fogliato | |||||
| B6 Leskovec |
| HT-weighted (full test) | Unweighted (subset) | Not reweighted | |||||||
| Model | M | Lift | F1 SD | P | R | TF1 | V% | ||
| HI-Small : population illicit rate , predict-all floor | |||||||||
| GPT-OSS-20B | FS | 0.2360 | 0.1182 | 0.959 | 32.8 | 79.2 | 10.5 | 88.3 | |
| GPT-OSS-20B | ZS | 0.2457 | 0.1230 | 0.999 | 33.3 | 99.5 | 5.6 | 99.8 | |
| Qwen3.5-27B | FS | 0.2404 | 0.1205 | 0.978 | 32.5 | 54.5 | 10.1 | 61.5 | |
| Qwen3.5-27B | ZS | 0.2302 | 0.1153 | 0.936 | 31.6 | 82.9 | 6.3 | 88.1 | |
| Model | M | 95% interval | Lift | 95% interval | |||
| (%) | ( pp) | ( pp) | (%) | ||||
| HI-Small | |||||||
| GPT-OSS-20B | FS | 0.2360 | 2.34 | 2.02 | 0.959 | ||
| GPT-OSS-20B | ZS | 0.2457 | 0.76 | 0.21 | 0.999 | ||
| Qwen3.5-27B | FS | 0.2404 | 0.90 | 4.52 | 0.978 | ||
| Qwen3.5-27B | ZS | 0.2302 | 0.43 | 1.75 | 0.936 | ||
| Split | Model | 95% interval | Lift | 95% interval | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (pp) | ( pp) | (pp) | ||||
| HI-Small | GPT-OSS-20B | -0.0098 | 2.01 | -0.039 | ||
| HI-Small | Qwen3.5-27B | 0.0101 | 4.14 | 0.042 | ||
| HI-Small | Nem-Nano-30B | -0.0006 | 0.92 | -0.002 | ||
| HI-Small | Qwen3.5-35B-A3B | 0.0063 | 1.61 | 0.026 | ||
| HI-Small | GPT-OSS-120B | 0.0037 | 0.90 | 0.015 |
| LLM | Group | n | ill. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI-Small | |||||
| GPT-OSS-20B | Both correct | 1,142 | 566 | .53 | .47 |
| ML only correct | 1,944 | 145 | .11 | .29 | |
| LLM only correct | 407 | 366 | .17 | .28 | |
| Both wrong | 260 | 174 | .31 | .41 | |
| Nem-Nano | Both correct | 802 | 700 | .86 | .30 |
| Typology | n | ML Ens. | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|
| fan-in | 90 | 58.9 | 98.9 |
| bipartite | 43 | 60.5 | 97.7 |
| random | 66 | 84.8 | 97.0 |
| fan-out | 85 | 94.1 | 88.2 |
| stack | 32 | 96.9 | 100.0 |
| cycle | 74 | 100.0 | 98.6 |
| Model | Cor. | Over | Und. | Typo | NR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-20B | 17.5 | 50.2 | 1.8 | 13.5 | 17.0 |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 15.5 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 16.2 | 10.4 |
| Nem-Nano-30B | 18.9 | 63.6 | 0.6 | 14.9 | 2.0 |
| Nem-Super-120B | 24.9 | 54.5 | 4.7 | 13.9 | 2.0 |
| Qwen3.5-35B-A3B | 28.4 | 54.4 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 0.9 |
| Qwen3.5-397B | 22.3 | 63.3 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 0.9 |
| Method | F1 | P | R | TF1 | %C |
| HI-Small (ML threshold = 0.80) | |||||
| ML Ensemble | 68.1 | 84.8 | 56.8 | 72.7 | 0 |
| Score-gate (14-cell mean) | 65.3 | 73.8 | 58.5 | 71.2 | 5 |
| Same-route always illicit | 87.3 | 77.5 | 100.0 | — | 0 |
| DT + GPT-OSS-20B | 87.3 | 77.6 | 99.7 | 57.0 | 21 |
| DT + Qwen3.5-27B | 82.0 | 75.9 | 89.1 | 59.7 | 21 |
| Model | Compact pass | DT estimate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | LI | HI | LI | |
| GPT-OSS-20B | ||||
| GPT-OSS-120B | ||||
| Qwen3.5-27B | ||||
| Nem-Nano-30B | ||||
| Nem-Super-120B | ||||
| Pass rate (%) | Agreement ( ) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Step | Regex | DeepSeek | Opus | Gemini | Fleiss | Mean pair | Min pair | Max pair |
| Parse | 80.4 | 83.5 | 73.9 | 81.3 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.91 |
| Recall | 82.8 | 80.7 | 76.6 | 81.8 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.97 |
| Match | 75.7 | 80.1 | 70.3 | 73.7 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.77 |
| Conclude | 19.2 | 24.0 | 27.1 | 20.9 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.87 |
| Checks | References | Full | First 8k chars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Original regex | All | 538/1000 | 531/1000 |
| Original regex | Available | 421/760 | 417/760 |
| No bypass | All | 533/1000 | 525/1000 |
| No bypass | Available | 417/760 | 412/760 |
| Step | NLP | Jr. | Sr. | Mean | Fleiss’ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parse | 100.0 | 100.0 | 96.4 | 98.8 | |
| Recall | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | undefined † |
| Match | 53.6 | 96.4 | 67.9 | 72.6 | 0.10 |
| Conclude | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 1.00 |
| Few-shot | Zero-shot | Few-shot by correctness | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Rate | Mean | Median | Rate | Mean | Median | Correct | Wrong | |
| GPT-OSS-20B | 83.0 | 4,147 | 3,438 | 99.8 | 2,179 | 2,013 | 4,176 | 4,129 | |
| Qwen3.5-27B | 61.3 | 14,764 | 14,678 | 88.1 | 12,647 | 12,125 | 14,280 | 15,041 | |
| Nem-Nano-30B | 98.0 | 2,810 | 2,343 | 100.0 | 1,485 | 1,441 | 2,853 | 2,788 | |
| Qwen3.5-35B-A3B | 99.1 | 22,208 | 19,204 | 100.0 | 15,566 | 14,585 | 23,980 | 21,003 | |
| GPT-OSS-120B | 89.6 | 1,998 | 1,899 | 99.8 | 1,147 | 1,117 | 1,965 | 2,015 | |
| Model | D | F1 | P | R | Over | Und |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-OSS-120B | HI | |||||
| GPT-OSS-120B | LI | |||||
| Nem-Super-120B | HI | |||||
| Nem-Super-120B | LI | |||||
| Pooled mean | – |
| Model | Variant | Det-F1 | Det-P | Det-R | Typ-F1 | Typ-Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek-V4-Pro | ZS-Graph | |||||
| ZS-Base | ||||||
| FS-Base | ||||||
| ZS-Abstain | ||||||
| FS-CoT-Elim | ||||||
| FS-TypFirst |