Credit assignment in modular financial reinforcement learning is difficult to evaluate because an attributed signal may improve a component loss without adding decision-relevant information or improving economic outcomes. We propose an evaluation framework combining equal-information reconstruction controls, fixed-utility comparisons and prespecified downstream guardrails. The framework is instantiated in an attribution-guided modular trading architecture and tested in three controlled studies covering update allocation, supervision-target representation and portfolio risk control. We find that residual-based allocation is exactly reproduced by an ordinary loss-budget control under the disclosed interface; direct shortfall supervision improves component prediction but fails decoded-outcome preservation; and component-wise critic supervision worsens risk-condition certainty equivalent and drawdown relative to scalar supervision under fixed utility. These results identify three distinct evaluation failures: redundant attribution signals, representation-induced prediction trade-offs, and misalignment between component supervision and downstream risk outcomes. A preserved historical engineering case further shows why module-level learning claims require run-level provenance. The contribution is a reusable methodology for evaluating credit assignment in expert systems operating under partial observability, delayed feedback and economic risk constraints.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Documented AMATS case architecture. The LLM proposes intent; risk control determines feasible exposure; execution creates orders and fills. An attribution record supports module-specific feedback. Arrows define the design’s information and learning paths.
Study
Intervention and evaluated outcome
Replication and boundary
Allocation (v2)
Residual versus uniform task-gradient allocation; standardized prediction loss
6 paired path/initialization seeds; 264 main/sensitivity runs; no account
Representation (v3)
Native outcome versus shortfall supervision, crossed with routing; common decoded errors
Scalar versus component critic supervision; CE, drawdown and net return
30 paired seeds; 2,940 cells; two synthetic assets in one account
Historical probe (Bar)
Fixed forecast-to-position policy with alternative update allocation
3 initialization seeds on 2 selected years and 2 separately funded assets; modeled execution
Table 1: Executed evidence and its independent experimental units. Paired configurations share a seed/path; runs, clocks and bootstrap draws remain distinct from independent sample sizes. These studies instantiate selected interfaces of the AMATS architecture in Section 3 .
Figure 2: V3 factorial contrasts on common L , with paired 99.5833% Bonferroni-adjusted intervals. Negative target/routing differences favor the first treatment; interaction is two-sided. The component gain does not imply that the separate outcome guardrail passes.
Condition
Difference
Adjusted interval
Noninferiority
Stationary
+0.0395
[0.0083,0.0710]
Not established
Direction shift
−0.0110
[−0.0851,0.0630]
Not established
Execution shift
+0.0713
[0.0468,0.0973]
Not established
Both shifts
+0.0744
[0.0069,0.1421]
Not established
Table 2: V3 target contrast on decoded y standardized MSE, with 99.7917% Bonferroni-adjusted intervals. Passing requires the upper bound below 0.05 .
Contrast (RL-RISK minus comparator)
Difference
Adjusted interval
Decision
All-condition CE minus FIXED
−0.2817
[−0.3186,−0.2285]
Not supported
Risk-condition CE minus RL-SCALAR
−0.0619
[−0.1132,−0.0241]
Not supported
Stationary CE minus RL-SCALAR
−0.0215
[−0.0545,0.0013]
NI not established
Risk-condition MDD minus RL-SCALAR
+0.0151
[0.0053,0.0286]
Not supported
Risk-condition net return minus RL-SCALAR
−0.0145
[−0.0280,−0.0048]
NI not established
All-condition CE minus JOINT-DRE
+0.0597
[0.0187,0.1033]
Supported
Table 3: V4 confirmatory paired contrasts with 99.1667% Bonferroni-adjusted intervals. CE is bps/clock; MDD and net return are fractions. Positive CE/return and negative MDD favor RL-RISK.
Figure 3: V4 prespecified paired contrasts and adjusted intervals. SCALAR and JOINT abbreviate RL-SCALAR and JOINT-DRE; all, risk and stat. denote aggregates. Exact intervals are reported in Table S4.2 and Supplementary Material S4. The plot marks zero, not NI margins.
Claim
Evidence
Conclusion
Scheduler specificity
Exact attributed/loss-budget equality in 24 simulated and 12 historical main pairs
No attribution-specific advantage for this interface
V3-H1
L /IS improve; decoded- y NI fails in all 4 conditions
Complete criterion not supported
V3-H2/H3
Adjusted routing and interaction criteria fail in all 4 conditions
Neither gain confirmed
V3-H4
Both specified residual-dominance intervals positive
Supported dominance, not causal diagnosis
V4-H1/H2/H3
Adverse aggregate CE/MDD; return guardrails fail
Complete risk criteria not supported
V4-H4
Positive all-condition CE contrast against JOINT-DRE
Supported only for the specified bundle
Table 4: Claim hierarchy for the executed studies. Decisions follow the complete prespecified criteria, including downstream guardrails. Original full-system H1–H4 remain separate evaluation questions in Supplementary Material S6.
Reported measure
Reported value
Sharpe
2.4356
Win rate
55.62%
Maximum drawdown, magnitude
16.81%
CAGR
136.92%
Sortino
1.0442
Profit factor
3.3163
Table 5: E01 historical report: transcribed point estimates, not independently reproduced performance estimates. Currency, annualization and complete accounting/configuration provenance remain unverified.
Figure 4: E01 equity redrawn directly from the preserved CSV, including the December 2020 observations. Units are the account units reported in the source. The line preserves every timestamp/value pair. Configuration and accounting provenance are discussed in Section 8 .
Appendix figures & tables24 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Figure S1.1 : Deterministic quadratic diagnostic, not market data. (a) The equal-weight optimum sacrifices both task-specific optima. (b) Execution-loss weights switch through 1,4,1,0.25 in blocks of 25 steps, with η=0.05 and θ0=0 . The dashed optima are 0,−0.6,0,0.6 . These are loss-weight switches, not detected market-regime transitions.
Scenario
Opportunity
Shortfall
Funding
Net
MC SE
Reference
12.123
7.500
0.500
4.123
0.653
Execution shock
12.123
15.500
0.500
-3.877
0.653
Forecast shock
4.123
7.500
0.500
-3.877
0.653
Partial fills
12.123
9.811
0.250
2.061
0.326
Appendix
Table S1.1 : Synthetic diagnostic results, 2,048 paired opportunities per scenario. Values are bps of intended notional, not portfolio returns. MC SE is the standard error of the simulated mean under the imposed independent generator, not uncertainty about market performance.
Quantity
Learn
Bar
Decision clock; direction horizon
Abstract clock; h=4
One hour; h=4 hours
Normalization; feature/target scale floors
512 clocks; 10−8 / 0.1 bp
512 valid clocks; same floors
Separate / shared network
2(11−8−1) / 11−15−2
Same; tanh hidden, linear output
Parameter counts
2×105=210 / 212
Same
Adam (η,β1,β2,ϵ)
(0.003,0.9,0.999,10−8)
Same
Batch / replay / eligibility
16 / 256 per task / 16 labels
Same
Appendix
Table S2.1 : Executed main-configuration parameters. These values specify the public small learners and simulator, not missing full-stack deployment choices.
Condition
Difference
95% interval
98.75% interval
Stationary
+0.0133
[+0.0065,+0.0204]
[+0.0048,+0.0225]
Direction shift
+0.0066
[−0.0056,+0.0187]
[−0.0091,+0.0216]
Execution shift
−0.0809
[−0.1654,+0.0048]
[−0.1901,+0.0280]
Combined shift
−0.0231
[−0.1128,+0.0795]
[−0.1341,+0.1099]
Appendix
Table S2.2 : Attributed minus uniform combined loss. Negative favors attributed allocation. Paired seed/time-block intervals use 20,000 resamples. The 98.75% column adjusts the four primary condition-specific contrasts; 95% intervals are descriptive.
Figure S2.1 : Actually trained small learners on simulated tasks. Five-method losses have descriptive 95% intervals; the paired allocation contrast has nested 95% (thin black) and 98.75% (thick gray) intervals. The attributed and ordinary loss-budget results coincide exactly. S/D/E/B identify stationary, direction-shift, execution-shift and combined-shift conditions. This tests the disclosed update scheduler, not full AMATS or market alpha.
Figure S2.2 : Complete one-factor sensitivity grid for combined shifts: attributed minus uniform standardized loss with exploratory 95% intervals. Each panel reuses the same main-study baseline point. At minimum share 0.5 the policies coincide. The grid does not select a deployable setting or establish component contributions in full AMATS.
Variant
Stationary
Direction shift
Execution shift
Both shifts
RAW-U
1.2731
1.8002
1.6989
2.2879
RAW-R
1.2654
1.7850
1.7014
2.2837
ATTR-U
0.9481
1.2198
1.4291
1.8750
ATTR-R
0.9495
1.2188
1.4346
1.8883
RAW-J
1.2627
1.7487
1.6894
2.2432
ATTR-J
0.9533
1.2125
1.4331
1.8821
Appendix
Table S3.1 : V3 equal-seed mean common loss L (20 seeds per cell). J/P are descriptive shared-network controls. RAW-IS rows are independently trained equality controls, not additional independent evidence.
Figure S3.1 : V3 factorial trajectories: equal-seed means of trailing 32-clock valid-observation common loss. These are descriptive curves, not confidence bands or additional observations. Vertical lines mark frozen alternating intervention boundaries in shifting conditions. All four conditions and modular treatments are retained.
Figure S3.2 : Complete v3 both-shift target, routing and interaction sensitivity contrasts on L , with descriptive paired 95% intervals. The baseline reuses 80 main cells; each other setting has 20 seeds and four variants. No sensitivity replaces the frozen primary result.
Condition
FIXED
VOL
RL-SCALAR
RL-RISK
PCGrad
JOINT-DRE
Stationary
0.1939
0.1650
-0.2700
-0.2916
-0.2926
-0.2908
Direction shift
-0.5219
-0.5162
-0.5089
-0.6515
-0.6284
-0.8476
Execution shift
0.1056
0.0877
-0.2204
-0.2309
-0.2323
-0.2138
Risk shift
0.0911
0.0683
-0.3311
-0.3639
-0.3630
-0.4488
Direction+risk
-0.6315
-0.1717
-0.6241
-0.7547
-0.7388
-0.8161
Execution+risk
0.0248
0.0513
-0.2507
-0.2707
-0.2654
-0.3085
Appendix
Table S4.1 : V4 seed-mean certainty equivalent in bps per clock. Each cell equally weights 30 complete test paths. Intervals and hypothesis decisions use paired seed differences, not comparisons of these marginal means.
Contrast (RL-RISK minus comparator)
Difference
Adjusted interval
Decision
All-condition CE minus FIXED
-0.2817
[−0.3186,−0.2285]
Not supported
Risk-condition CE minus RL-SCALAR
-0.0619
[−0.1132,−0.0241]
Not supported
Stationary CE minus RL-SCALAR
-0.0215
[−0.0545,0.0013]
NI not established
Risk-condition MDD minus RL-SCALAR
0.0151
[0.0053,0.0286]
Not supported
Risk-condition net return minus RL-SCALAR
-0.0145
[−0.0280,−0.0048]
NI not established
All-condition CE minus JOINT-DRE
0.0597
[0.0187,0.1033]
Supported
Appendix
Table S4.2 : V4 confirmatory paired contrasts with 99.1667% Bonferroni intervals. CE is bps/clock; MDD and net return are fractions. Positive CE/return and negative MDD favor RL-RISK.
Year
Method
Net (%)
DD (%)
SR
Median SR
CE
Day+ (%)
2024
Uniform
-7.17
8.80
-4.65
-4.50
-0.531
38.5
2024
Attributed
-3.92
7.18
-2.70
-3.28
-0.302
40.2
2024
Loss
-3.92
7.18
-2.70
-3.28
-0.302
40.2
2024
Joint
-5.05
7.85
-3.22
-3.37
-0.382
39.3
2024
PCGrad
-4.17
6.98
-2.63
-2.69
-0.321
37.2
2024
Passive
1.90
5.42
0.87
0.87
0.089
49.2
Appendix
Table S5.1 : Historical public bar configuration, May–June in each year. Values are averages of separately funded account metrics: first across three seeds per asset, then equally across BTC/ETH; passive has two accounts, not six artificial seed replications. DD is hourly-sampled maximum drawdown; SR is descriptive annualized hourly Sharpe; median SR is the account median; CE is hourly certainty equivalent in bps; Day+ is the percentage of positive calendar days. Uncertainty for the central paired return contrast appears in Table S5.2 .
Window
Difference
95% interval
2024
+5.54
[+1.43,+11.58]
2025
+2.27
[−5.27,+10.69]
Equal-year pooled
+3.90
[−0.90,+9.96]
Appendix
Table S5.2 : Historical attributed minus uniform mean daily return. Positive favors attributed allocation. Intervals resample paired initialization seeds and common seven-day blocks; they are descriptive and conditional on the selected windows. Units are bps/day, not execution bps saved.
Figure S5.1 : Mean normalized equity of separately funded historical research accounts, retaining the full calendar window. Curves connect measured daily closes and the initial capital point; they are not a rebalanced portfolio or a confidence band. Attributed and loss-budget curves coincide exactly. Negative learned-policy outcomes are retained alongside the passive comparator.
Figure S5.2 : Complete historical fee/slippage sensitivity: paired attributed-minus-uniform mean daily return with descriptive 95% intervals. The base point is reused from the main matrix. Funding is unchanged; policy trajectories are retrained under each declared cost multiplier. Connecting lines do not estimate untested multipliers.
H
Required test
Observed evidence
Conclusion
Limitation
H1
Matched full-system median net Sharpe and CE
Trained controlled losses and exploratory historical account comparisons; attributed and loss-budget controls coincide
Full H1 untested; no attribution-specific gain established
Small learners and two historical windows, not full AMATS
H2
Market-transition penalty and recovery
Controlled intervention diagnostics retain 229 censored records across methods
Market H2 untested
Simulator change times are not observed market transitions
H3
Intended IC/shortfall gain and noninferiority elsewhere
All three shifted normalized-loss criteria fail; stationary meets the margin but combined loss worsens
Analogue not supported; full H3 untested
Own-policy order targets differ; cost differences are not paired savings
H4
Matched removal of each active architectural component
Named stack, six heads, LLM, SAC and TCN not evaluated
Appendix
Table S6.1 : Original hypothesis status and the narrower evidence actually obtained. “Untested” refers to the original full-system claim, not to the absence of the reported public experiments.
Original model/stack label
AUC@ h
MASE
Sharpe
MDD
N-HiTS
0.61
0.89
1.9
0.18
PatchTST
0.64
0.84
2.6
0.15
ETSformer
0.63
0.85
2.4
0.16
Stacked
0.66
0.81
3.1
0.13
Appendix
Table S7.1: Original draft Table 1, retained with its explicitly illustrative status. The horizon h , sample, costs and comparison protocol were not specified sufficiently to reproduce this table. These cells are not new trained comparisons and are not E01 metrics.
Original item
Status in this paper
Walk-forward and regime-stratified evaluation
Explicit controlled study schedules and limited Bar windows are available. The full historical stack’s sample/split protocol is unverified.
Out-of-sample AUC/MASE and calibrated forecasts
Public evaluation dimensions and illustrative source table retained; no recoverable matched named-ensemble result.
Synthetic attribution correctness
Present deterministic event/gradient checks and trained equality controls are documented in Appendix S1 and the study appendices; they do not date or verify the source’s earlier checklist.
Execution bps versus a taker baseline
Original qualitative claim retained; historical comparator and cost protocol unknown. Own-policy Bar differences are not paired execution savings.
Token/latency enforcement and alerts
Original budget, kill-switch and 80% Prometheus alert statements retained in Section 4.2 ; no deployment measurement or enforcement log recovered.
Appendix
Table S7.2: Original validation and operating checklist, restated by evidence status. Design requirements are not counted as completed empirical checks.
Figure S7.1 : E02, 8-hour BTC-target horizon: preserved mutual-information and correlation matrices. Numerical cells and ordering come from CSVs; labels alone are rounded. Duplicate funding-spread rows are retained. Sample and estimator lineage are unverified, so the plot is not an out-of-sample predictive-performance test.
Figure S7.2 : E02, 24-hour BTC-target horizon, using the same respective color limits as Figure S7.1 . All 13 rows and eight lags are retained, including duplicate funding-spread rows. These are archived diagnostics, not independent alpha confirmations.
Figure S7.3 : E03: unchanged archived trades visualization. Source run linkage is unresolved; the displayed dates and markers alone do not connect it to E01 or identify the complete system configuration.
Figure S7.4 : E04: unchanged archived short-window equity/trades example. No numerical performance estimate is reconstructed from the image and no E01 metrics are transferred to it. Its configuration and full-stack linkage remain unverified.
Model
Initial configuration and rationale
N-HiTS
Three identity stacks; one block per stack; two 256-unit ReLU layers per block; pooling kernels (4,2,1) ; interpolation downsampling (4,2,1) ; linear interpolation. Multirate processing supplies a coarser-scale comparator.
PatchTST
Patch length 16, stride 8, no end padding; three encoder layers; width 128; eight attention heads; feedforward width 256; dropout 0.1. Patching supplies local temporal structure with 41 input patches.
ETSformer
Two encoder and two decoder layers; width 128; eight attention heads; feedforward width 256; dropout 0.1; three selected Fourier components. Its level/growth/seasonal structure supplies a distinct modeling assumption.
Appendix
Table S9.1: Proposed starting architectures. These settings were not used to generate any reported AMATS result.
Field
Type and meaning
schema_version
String fixed to amats-intent-v0.1 .
decision_id , as_of_utc
Identifier and UTC timestamp copied from the input.
heads
Array containing exactly the six named heads, each once.
head_id , status
Fixed head name; status is active or abstain.
direction , confidence
Direction ∈{−1,0,1} ; finite raw confidence in [0,1] .
Fine-grained credit assignment is a central challenge in reinforcement learning for long horizon LLM agents. Standard objectives often train from programmatically verifiable terminal rewards by broadcasting each sparse outcome to every action in a trajectory. Existing methods typically seek finer credit from the rollout side, constructing auxiliary trajectory signals or additional comparisons to estimate action importance. Although useful, these approaches still treat the verifier that judged success as a scalar reward, discarding its internal task structure. Our key insight is that many verifiable tasks already encode the relevant checks inside their terminal verifier. We propose VICT (VerifierInstrumented Credit Tracing), a training-time interface that exposes executable or evidence backed atoms and traces them back to actions through dependency-valid proof edges. VICT redistributes group-relative advantage only along those edges, shifting credit assignment from rollout-side inference to verifierside tracing. It preserves the original terminal reward, abstains when evidence is incomplete or ambiguous, and changes only the training-time advantage tensor, requiring no learned critic, process labels, branch rollouts, or inference-time verifier access. On ALFWorld and WebShop, VICT improves substantially over outcome-only training and achieves strong performance alongside recent fine-grained credit methods; ablations rule out dense atom rewards, final-commit credit, temporal proximity, and sparsity as sufficient explanations.
Pengcheng Li, Zhengyang Zhang, Dongxu Zhang +2
Tsinghua University · Xi’an Jiaotong University · Jiaxing Nanhu University
Reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs) increasingly relies on sparse outcome rewards, yet such rewards say little about which token, reasoning step, tool call, memory operation, or agent caused an outcome. This credit assignment (CA) problem spans reasoning RL and becomes sharper in agentic RL, where environment interaction introduces transition non-closure, partial observability, limited replay, heterogeneous actions, weak intermediate verifiability, and agent coupling. We synthesize a unified corpus of 69 papers published from January 2024 through July 31, 2026: 56 core CA methods and 13 adjacent or boundary enablers, selected from 92 deduplicated screening records. We retain the original granularity-by-methodology taxonomy and add a six-diagnostic framework mapping assumption breaks to identification barriers, estimators, and evaluation controls. A source-located full-text audit covers a fixed 42-core-paper subset. Two algorithm researchers independently and blindly cross-coded 252 diagnostic cells, agreeing on 223 (88.5%); per-diagnostic Cohen's kappa ranges from .543 to .909, and principal-family agreement is 42/42 (kappa=1.000). Beyond taxonomy, we establish when restored-state comparisons identify a protocol-specific causal contrast, show that text-only histories can leave even the sign of credit unidentified, and introduce a reusable CA-ID Card linking each claim to its estimand, evidence provenance, and falsification test. An atomic reporting audit describes comparator, budget parity, ablation, overhead, uncertainty, and replay coverage without constructing a cross-paper leaderboard. The companion repository hosts a living catalog and decision aids; a dated release of the frozen audit bundle is planned there separately from the minimal arXiv source.
Agentic reinforcement learning requires assigning credit to environment-facing actions such as searches, clicks, edits, navigation commands, and object interactions. Standard GRPO uses the final verifier outcome as a uniform advantage over all action tokens. This outcome signal is useful but structurally incomplete: it punishes useful exploration in failed rollouts and reinforces redundant or regressive actions in successful rollouts. We propose TRIAGE, a role-typed credit assignment framework that adds a semantic role axis to outcome credit. A structured judge classifies each segment as decisive progress, useful exploration, no-progress infrastructure, or regression, and a fixed role-conditioned rule maps these labels to bounded segment-level process rewards. This keeps verifier outcomes as the source of optimization direction while correcting the two main blind spots of outcome-only credit. We further show that role-conditioned credit is the optimal segment-level correction expressible from role labels alone -- a projection of the per-segment advantage residual onto the role variable -- so that the fixed role constants reduce advantage estimation error whenever the judge is reliable, and we connect this to lower-variance policy gradients. Across ALFWorld, Search-QA, and WebShop, TRIAGE improves success rates over GRPO for two policy models and outperforms both a scalar judge-derived process reward and an outcome-supervised shared-backbone value baseline. Ablations show that the gain comes from role typing rather than merely adding dense rewards: reliable detection of regression inside successful trajectories is the dominant contributor, while exploration credit provides a consistent secondary gain; on completed ALFWorld and WebShop rollouts, TRIAGE also reduces environment-facing turns by an additional 10.4% and 14.8% relative to GRPO.
Yuanda Xu, Zhengze Zhou, Hejian Sang +6
1LinkedIn Corporation · 2Harvard University · 3Johns Hopkins University +1