Sparsity Saves Compute, Not Samples: Oracle Inequalities for Dense and Sparse Mixture of Experts

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures increase model capacity by combining a collection of expert predictors through input-dependent routing, while often activating only a small subset of experts for each input. Despite their growing importance in modern large-scale models, the statistical roles of their design choices, especially routing, sparse activation, and shared experts, remain only partially understood, as existing theory has largely focused on parametric or correctly specified MoE models. In this paper, we view MoE as a form of localized aggregation and show how this localization reshapes the approximation-estimation-computation tradeoff. We derive oracle risk bounds for learning dense and sparse routing with evolving experts, separating approximation, expert-learning, and router-estimation errors, and characterize how sparse Top-K routing can retain the benefits of localized aggregation while controlling per-input computation. We also interpret gating through the geometry of input space, relating routing performance to regions of local expert advantage, and show how shared experts, as adopted in architectures such as DeepSeekMoE, can extract common predictive structure so that routed experts focus on residual local variation. Together, these results provide a unified statistical framework for understanding MoE through input-dependent expert aggregation, in which expert specialization and computational tradeoffs are governed by local predictive structure.

Resource-efficient machine learning increasingly uses sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, where the gate acts as both a learning component and a routing interface controlling computation, communication, and accuracy. Motivated by finite-rate interpretations of MoE gating, we treat the gate as a stochastic channel and use $I(X;T)$ to quantify the routing information available to the selected expert. To make the associated information quantities tractable beyond synthetic examples, we develop a finite-bank MNIST construction using pretrained CNN experts and a discrete, data-dependent selection rule. Since the selected model belongs to a finite candidate set, the algorithmic mutual information $I(S;W)$ admits a closed-form discrete-entropy estimator from the empirical posterior $q(W|S)$. Sweeping a data-dependence parameter $α$, we observe that $\widehat I(S;W)$ monotonically tracks the generalization gap, while the Xu-Raginsky bound exhibits the expected looseness. We also compare with a uniform union-bound baseline and introduce an empirical estimator of $I(X;T)$ together with a Blahut-Arimoto procedure for tracing an accuracy-rate curve over the expert bank. The proposed framework provides a practical tool for analyzing resource-aware MoE inference systems and for interpreting $I(X;T)$ and $D(R_g)$ as design proxies for efficient expert routing.

Mixture-of-Experts models rely on learned routers to assign tokens to experts, yet standard softmax gating provides no principled mechanism to control the tradeoff between sparsity and utilization. We propose Grassmannian MoE (GrMoE), a routing framework that operates on the Grassmannian manifold of subspaces, where gating weights arise from the concentration parameters of Matrix Bingham distributions. This construction yields a single, interpretable knob -- the concentration matrix $Λ$ -- that continuously controls routing entropy, replacing discrete top-$k$ selection with a smooth, geometrically principled sparsity mechanism. We further develop an amortized variational inference procedure for posterior routing distributions, enabling uncertainty-aware expert assignment that naturally resists expert collapse. We formally prove tight bounds relating the Bingham concentration spectrum to routing entropy, expected top-$k$ mass, and an exponential bound on expert collapse, establishing the first formal theory of concentration-controlled sparsity. On synthetic routing tasks, a 350M-parameter MoE language model with 8 experts, a 1.3B-parameter model with 16 experts, and a 2.7B-parameter model with 32 experts, GrMoE achieves 0% routing collapse across all seeds, comparable or better perplexity with 15--30% improved load balance, and a smooth monotonic relationship between concentration and effective sparsity that enables post-hoc sparsity tuning without retraining. Token-level analysis reveals that experts learn heterogeneous concentration values that correlate with linguistic specialization, providing interpretable routing behavior.