Sparse autoencoder (SAE) features are typically discovered from how their activations co-vary with behaviour, yet they are often used through interventions such as steering or ablation. We take intervention attribution, the first-order effect of a specified intervention on the model output, as our estimand. For a broad class of response functions, we show that observational feature-discovery evidence generally does not identify this attribution, and derive an exact gradient-based decomposition of the gap between linear-probe predictions and intervention attribution. Across four model-SAE pairs, median probe-to-attribution magnitude ratios range from tens to hundreds, while attributions closely track small-step steering. For single-latent ablations with nonzero effects, gradient predictions match the realized sign in 91-97% of cases, compared with 17-35% for probe-implied changes. Attribution-selected sets also produce larger absolute mean ablation effects on held-out prompts than sets selected by correlation, rank tests or probe coefficients. Together, these results establish intervention attribution as a principled, gradient-estimable target for selecting SAE features for intervention.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Association and intervention for SAE latents. (A) Gemma-2-9B completes “In Turkey, people commonly speak” with p(Turkish)=0.349 . FDFI ranks latent 102779 first and latent 99439 23rd among the 39 latents it selects for this task. Zero-ablating each latent at every position but the first gives the realized intervention effect (bars) and the prompt-specific gradient prediction (ticks) in standardized log-probability units. The illustrative example is post hoc. It is the sole eligible unit under a selection rule specified after the aggregate analyses with a required positive attribution-set versus FDFI-set contrast ( Appendix H ). (B) A separately fitted probe on the final-position score dj⊤h implies a change ρ , whereas an intervention that edits along dj has first-order effect α , its attribution. The law of (H,Y) fixes F only on the support of H and need not identify α ( Proposition 1 ). (C) With gradients the gap ρ−α is a Stein residual plus an omitted-variable term minus an edit-gradient covariance ( Theorem 1 ). The secant illustration assumes affinely independent support.
Term
Compares
Zero when
SAE instance
Stein residual suˉ′
observational regression slope with mean gradient
F globally affine, or H Gaussian with ΣH≻0
a response curved across prompts
Omitted variable c(Δ)
probe’s activation pattern with mean edit
(vA(uˉ)−uˉ)⊥γ , e.g. vA(uˉ)=uˉ
an edit at positions the probe does not read
Edit-gradient covariance e(Δ)
prompt-varying edit with model sensitivity
fixed edit, as for steering
ablation of a rarely firing latent
Table 1: The three terms of ( 5 ), what each compares, when it vanishes and where it arises in SAE pipelines. The empirical stratum laws are finitely supported. The Gaussian case is a benchmark ( Lemma B.1 ).
Size of the gap
Realized interventions
Choosing latents
Steering
Ablation
Sets, attr. −
Model
Pairs
∣α/β∣ (%) [CI]
<0.1
∣s/β∣
∣c/β∣
ρ≈0
∣T/α∣
∣T/β∣
MAE red.
Sign (%)
Top-1
∣β∣
FDFI
GPT-2
46
4.6 [3.0, 5.9]
0.739
0.614
0.514
0.370
1.000
7.60
0.303
92/21
1/0/4 (6)
0.454
0.290
Gemma-2-2B
230
3.2 [2.2, 3.6]
0.770
0.922
0.593
0.296
1.000
3.68
0.119
91/22
0/0/4 (9)
0.506
−0.209
Gemma-2-9B
457
2.8 [1.9, 3.5]
0.751
0.728
0.463
0.287
1.001
2.50
0.114
93/17
0/0/4 (9)
2.137
1.380
Llama-3.1-8B
23 ∗
3.2 [2.2, 5.1]
0.826
0.583
0.406
0.043
1.000
3.36
0.300
97/35
2/1/4 (4)
0.309
0.206
Table 2: Main results on held-out prompts. Columns Pairs through ∣c/β∣ use FDFI-selected directions under unit steering. Ratios are medians over pairs, with intervals that resample strata within task. Column <0.1 is the share with ∣α/β∣<0.1 and ρ≈0 is the post hoc share of single-latent zero-ablations with ∣ρ∣≤10−3<∣α∣ . Steering is descriptive, on coefficient-selected directions ( 90 , 100 , 100 and 90 pairs), with T the central difference quotient of the realized steering interventions and ∣T/β∣ in units of 10−3 . Ablation gives the reduction in mean absolute error from the probe to the gradient prediction. Sign gives the gradient/probe sign agreement among rows with nonzero realized effects, averaged equally over tasks, with a zero prediction counted as a disagreement. Choosing latents is descriptive. Top-1 counts the units, out of the number in parentheses, in which the FDFI statistic, ∣β∣ or ∣α∣ ranks first the latent with the largest ∣T∣ at one maximum activation. The last columns give model means of the attribution-set minus comparator contrast in absolute held-out mean set-ablation effects, in standardized units, with all five comparators in Appendix G . ∗ Fewer than thirty pairs.
Figure 2: Probe-implied changes and intervention attributions on held-out prompts, in standardized units. (A) Magnitudes of the unit-direction attribution α (filled) and the probe coefficient β (open, crosses for the sign opposite to T ) against the central difference quotient ∣T∣ of steering at ±0.25 within-stratum standard deviations for the 380 coefficient-selected pairs. (B) Probe-implied change ρ against attribution α on symmetric-log axes under zero-ablation of the 756 FDFI-selected pairs. Shading marks opposite signs and negligible predictions ( ∣ρ∣<10−3 ). Dashed diagonals mark equality. (C) Shares of the summed absolute terms of ( 5 ) for the final-position probe, with the omitted-variable (OV) term split by position and zero- and mean-ablation as upper and lower bars for each model. Panel A is descriptive. Panels B and C are post hoc and descriptive ( Sections E.2 and E.4 ).
Appendix figures & tables12 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Law of H
F(x)
Edit
ρ
α
suˉ′
c
e
uniform on {−1,1}
x3
1
1
3
−2
0
0
(X,X) , Var(X)>0
x2
e1
1
0
0
1
0
uniform on {0,2}
x2/4
−H
−21
−1
0
0
−21
Appendix
Table B.1: Closed-form examples of the three terms of ( 5 ), with A=1 or A=(1,0) . Each row satisfies ρ−α=suˉ′+c−e .
Gaussian
t5
JumpReLU code
GPT-2
2B
9B
8B
GPT-2
2B
9B
8B
GPT-2
2B
9B
8B
Tasks
8
10
10
7
8
10
10
7
8
10
10
7
Stein, mean
0.961
0.971
0.970
0.967
0.918
0.925
0.927
0.925
0.835
0.821
0.824
0.820
Stein, test-weighted
0.955
0.971
0.970
0.964
0.915
0.929
0.925
0.921
0.863
0.814
0.829
0.830
Stein, Ks≤9
0.974
0.981
0.978
0.978
0.925
0.934
0.939
0.936
0.804
0.792
0.796
0.777
Stein, Ks≥30
0.946
0.952
0.960
0.950
0.908
0.914
0.915
0.914
0.882
0.886
0.889
0.880
Appendix
Table C.1: Coverage of nominal 95% stratum-level t intervals at the empirical stratum sizes, averaged over the reproduced tasks (Tasks). 2B, 9B and 8B are Gemma-2-2B, Gemma-2-9B and Llama-3.1-8B. Test-weighted weights tasks by their number of tests. The Ks rows keep tasks with at most nine or at least thirty strata.
Model
Alternate SAE (primary)
FVU alt. / prim. (thr.)
Pool prim. / alt.
Primary (i) / (ii) / (iii)
Alternate (i) / (ii) / (iii)
GPT-2
res_scefr-ajt ( res-jb )
0.729 / 0.139 (0.278)
N/A
not eligible
N/A
Gemma-2-2B
32k, L0 40 (16k, L0 41)
0.084 / 0.092 (0.184)
86 / 62
4.97×10−3 / 0.420 / 0.040
5.02×10−3 / 0.390 / 0.040
Gemma-2-9B
16k, L0 35 (131k, L0 32)
0.056 / 0.045 (0.090)
46 / 71
9.51×10−3 / 0.300 / 0.030
5.95×10−3 / 0.390 / 0.040
Llama-3.1-8B
l16r_32x ( l16r_8x )
0.243 / 0.275 (0.500)
409 / 278
4.75×10−3 / 0.389 / 0.111
4.07×10−3 / 0.356 / 0.111
Appendix
Table E.3: A second dictionary at the same hook, with the candidate pool and the criteria (i) to (iii) of Section E.2 . The FVU threshold is min{0.5,2FVUprim} .
Rejections of G=0
Noise-only null
Both significant,
Pairs
Model
N (tasks)
Median ∣α/β∣
∑∣α∣/∑∣β∣ [CI]
all
Ks≥10
median [q5]
opposite sign
FDFI-selected
GPT-2
46 (8)
0.046
0.036 [0.019, 0.064]
35
34/38
0.226 [0.156]
5/20
Gemma-2-2B
230 (10)
0.032
0.032 [0.022, 0.048]
65
50/92
0.080 [0.066]
11/42
Gemma-2-9B
457 (10)
0.028
0.038 [0.021, 0.071]
110
99/225
0.067 [0.059]
9/67
Llama-3.1-8B
23 (7) ∗
0.032
0.033 [0.023, 0.049]
17
13/14
0.170 [0.103]
2/12
Coefficient-selected
GPT-2
90 (9)
7.61×10−3
9.35×10−3 [ 6.07×10−3 , 0.013]
43
36/40
0.030 [0.023]
6/16
Appendix
Table E.4: Per-pair tests of the gap G=β−α (BH at 0.05 within model) and the noise-only null of Section E.3 . The pooled ratio has a task-resampled interval. Column Ks≥10 counts rejections among pairs estimated from at least ten strata. The null columns give the median and fifth percentile of the simulated median ratio. The last column counts opposite signs among the pairs whose α and β are both significant.
Probe-blind share
Opposite sign of ρ and α
Median ∣α/ρ∣
Model
Pairs
final
avg. decoder
avg. code
final
avg. decoder
avg. code
avg. decoder / code
GPT-2
46
0.391
0
0
0.414
0.403
0.336
0.294 / 0.167
Gemma-2-2B
230
0.452
0.013
0
0.268
0.487
0.456
0.100 / 0.119
Gemma-2-9B
457
0.534
0.020
0
0.436
0.542
0.516
0.103 / 0.056
Llama-3.1-8B
23
0.087
0
0
0.141
0.165
0.160
0.298 / 0.127
Appendix
Table E.6: Probes on FDFI’s position-averaged summaries under zero-ablation, against the final-position probe with the same weights (final). Blind shares are over pairs. The descriptive sign shares and the ratio column are equal-task averages of within-task shares and medians. The code summary excludes 4 and 10 pairs on the Gemma models whose averaged code has negligible pooled within-stratum variance.
Figure E.1: Probes on FDFI’s position-averaged summaries under zero-ablation, a post hoc descriptive analysis ( Table E.6 ). The left panel gives the probe-blind share pooled over pairs and the right panel the equal-task average of within-task median ∣α/ρ∣ over pairs with ρ=0 on a logarithmic scale. Dashed lines mark a zero blind share and equal magnitudes. The Gemma-2-2B final-position ratio of 2.916 is driven by one task with a single nonzero-probe pair.
GPT-2
Gemma-2-2B
Gemma-2-9B
Llama-3.1-8B
Zero-ablation
Estimates (tasks)
46 (8)
230 (10)
457 (10)
23 (7) ∗
∣Cj∣>∣Mj∣
0.522
0.339
0.385
0.174
equal task weights
0.317
0.287
0.335
0.097
strata with nk≥2
0.500
0.344
0.360
0.208
sign(Mj+Cj)=sign(Mj)
0.261
0.174
0.182
0.043
Appendix
Table F.1: The two terms of ( 7 ) per direction-task estimate, in strata of at least three prompts unless stated otherwise. The equal-task-weights row averages the within-task fraction over tasks. The share of Cj is the median of ∣Cj∣/(∣Mj∣+∣Cj∣) , with its tenth and ninetieth percentiles. BH counts the Benjamini-Hochberg rejections of Cj=0 within model among the estimates with a defined standard error, based on stratum-level t intervals ( Section C.2 ).
Single-latent zero-ablations
GPT-2
Gemma-2-2B
Gemma-2-9B
Llama-3.1-8B
Prompt-latent rows (tasks)
1,795 (7)
10,727 (9)
29,180 (9)
1,782 (7)
MAE of Pij
0.026
0.097
0.082
8.52×10−3
MAE of Mij
0.054
0.115
0.091
0.032
MAE of probeij
0.329
0.216
0.196
0.308
Gain over the probe
0.303
0.119
0.114
0.300
95% CI
[0.037, 0.799]
[0.078, 0.167]
[0.064, 0.171]
[0.114, 0.611]
Appendix
Table F.2: Single-latent zero-ablations, with the predictions Pij , Mij and probeij of Section F.2 . MAE weights tasks equally. Gains are differences in MAE, positive when Pij is more accurate. Their intervals resample tasks within model. Sign agreement is over rows with Dij=0 , with a zero prediction counted as a disagreement. Sign agreement averages within-task rates equally over tasks. The correlation r is the mean over tasks of the within-task Pearson correlation.
Within-stratum standard deviations
Maximum activations
Target
Ranked by
1
2
5
10
1
2
5
∣T∣
FDFI statistic
4
4
3
3
3
4
2
∣β∣
2
2
2
2
1
3
3
∣α∣
28
27
19
17
16
10
5
∣εT∣
FDFI statistic
4
4
3
3
5
4
2
∣εβ∣
7
7
5
4
4
6
8
Appendix
Table G.1: Number of the 28 model-task units in which the latent with the largest steering response is ranked first. Uniformly random choice gives 3.31 in expectation. Post hoc and descriptive.
Comparator c
dc
Stratum-resampled 95% CI
Two-stage 95% CI
GPT-2
Gemma-2-2B
Gemma-2-9B
Llama-3.1-8B
Units with dc>0
Correlation
0.949
[0.903, 1.001]
[0.292, 2.147]
0.396
0.370
2.033
0.185
28/28
Rank test
0.933
[0.885, 0.984]
[0.277, 2.121]
0.415
0.276
2.044
0.278
28/28
Class-mean difference
0.724
[0.640, 0.798]
[0.061, 1.795]
0.331
−4.91×10−3
1.795
0.236
24/28
∣β∣
1.058
[1.013, 1.112]
[0.371, 2.304]
0.454
0.506
2.137
0.309
28/28
FDFI
0.492
[0.357, 0.602]
[ −0.179 , 1.441]
0.290
−0.209
1.380
0.206
23/28
Appendix
Table G.2: Held-out set ablations under six selection rules. The contrast dc=Aattr−Ac is in standardized units, equal over units. Model columns give the mean contrast over the model’s units. The mean attribution-set effect is 0.467 , 0.511 , 2.165 and 0.310 against 0.013 , 5.55×10−3 , 0.028 and 7.68×10−4 for coefficient sets.
Figure H.1: The worked example (Gemma-2-9B, country to language). (A) Three held-out prompts chosen by baseline log-probability quantiles, with p(answer) unedited and after zero-ablating latent 102779 or 99439 at every position but the first (change in parentheses). Headers give each latent’s FDFI rank and statistic. (B) Realized change of each ablation (bars) against the prompt-specific gradient prediction (ticks), in standardized units. The example is illustrative, selected post hoc as the sole eligible unit of the deterministic rule of this section.
Prompt
Realized
First-order
Edit
answer (unedited p )
Zero-ablated
p(answer)
change
prediction
norm
In Turkey, people commonly speak
FDFI repr.
0.353
0.015
0.012
97.006
Turkish (0.349)
attribution repr.
0.403
0.201
0.224
24.246
FDFI set
0.334
−0.062
−0.043
120.406
attribution set
0.457
0.381
0.479
85.688
Most people in Lebanon speak
FDFI repr.
0.448
3.04×10−4
3.08×10−4
18.565
Appendix
Table H.1: The worked example of Figure H.1 (Gemma-2-9B country_language , first fold). Changes and the prompt-specific gradient predictions, summed over the ten latents for set ablations, are in standardized log-probability units. The edit norm is (∑τ∥Δhτ∥2)1/2 and repr. is the representative latent.