Distributional Regression for Arbitrary Response Variables Using ReLU Neural Networks

In this paper, we study the estimation of a marginal regression function from independent units with repeated binary, count, or continuous responses using ReLU deep neural networks. In the model, we assume that the dependence is generated by an unobserved random mean function within each unit. We then fit a neural network with a convex generalized regression loss. We show an oracle inequality by separating conditional measurement variation from between-unit variation. In addition, we prove that with $n$ units and $m$ measurements per unit, ReLU networks can attain an integrated mean squared error of order $n^{-1}+(nm)^{-2β/(2β+d)}$, up to logarithmic factors, over $β$-Hölder classes. We also derive a weighted oracle inequality for unequal cluster sizes and a rate for compositionally smooth functions. For pointwise ensemble inference, we give a projection central limit theorem and prove infinitesimal jackknife consistency under an explicit asymptotic linearity condition. Simulations and real data examples are provided to support our theoretical findings and practical implications.

Distribution regression seeks to learn mappings from probability distributions to response variables and has emerged as a unifying framework for kernel methods, multi-instance learning, and set-valued learning. Despite its success, kernel-based distribution regression remains computationally expensive and sensitive to kernel choice, motivating scalable and adaptive representations. Building on random feature approximations, we develop a finite-sample analysis of Random Feature Distribution Regression (RaDR) under two-stage sampling. Our perturbation analysis separates the effects of distribution-level sampling, finite within-bag sampling, and random feature approximation. We establish sufficient feature-budget conditions under which RaDR preserves the order of our excess-risk upper bound for exact two-stage kernel distribution regression while maintaining computational efficiency. We further propose Adaptive Random Feature Distribution Regression (A-RaDR), a unified score-guided framework that adaptively allocates random features according to downstream learning objectives. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and 41 real-world datasets demonstrate that RaDR delivers substantial computational savings while maintaining competitive predictive performance, whereas A-RaDR further improves learning accuracy in distribution regression while retaining the computational speed up. Together, these results establish a practical and theoretically grounded framework for adaptive, scalable distribution learning

Minimax-optimal rates for multivariate distribution estimation are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a sparse Bayesian network approach in which each conditional probability is estimated using sparsity-aware conditional mean methods. The resulting estimator, BAyesian Network Distribution regression (BAND), handles mixed data types in high-dimensional time series and achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates while allowing the feature dimension to grow polynomially with the sample size. These rates are substantially faster than the classical optimal rates for multivariate histogram density estimators that lack sparsity. Empirical evaluations show that BAND performs competitively for data sampling and confidence region forecasting against a range of state-of-the-art benchmarks.