While language models provide powerful mechanisms for evaluating textual predictability, it remains unclear whether the relative extents of LM surprisal remain stable across models. This study presents empirical evidence of the invariance of ranking based on cross-entropy related measures (e.g. mean, variance of each data-point), across four distinct small scale transformer-based models, for a given dataset of text sources. We consider two stylistic environments: a corpus of contemporary poetry and a corpus of academic research papers. We demonstrate that mean and variance of cross-entropy maintain robust cross-model rank correlation (ρ>0.90) across both regimes. To test whether this agreement merely reflects generic differences in textual complexity, we compare it against six parameter-free compression baselines. The extent of agreement among language models is found to be substantially higher than that among model-baselines, for most of the measures. Geometric analysis of the structurally constrained academic regime reveals that higher-order moments are sensitive to specific models, although strong agreement persists. The findings suggest that relative extents of textual unpredictability may be independent of the language model they are computed against.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation ( ρ ) of cross-entropy moments across the four evaluated language models for the poetic regime. The near-perfect agreement for mean and variance demonstrates the invariance of the metric, demonstrating that the metric survives across different model paradigms.
Figure 2: Pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation ( ρ ) of cross-entropy moments across the four evaluated language models for the academic regime. Despite the extreme stylistic variance compression enforced by institutional formatting, first two moments (mean and variance) maintain robust invariance.
Figure 3
Appendix figures & tables7 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Model pair
Mean BPC
Variance
Skewness
Excess kurtosis
GPT-2 – Pythia
[0.919, 0.995]
[0.814, 0.996]
[0.778, 0.985]
[0.775, 0.959]
GPT-2 – Qwen
[0.914, 0.993]
[0.787, 0.993]
[0.464, 0.947]
[0.588, 0.926]
GPT-2 – TinyLlama
[0.898, 0.992]
[0.923, 0.994]
[0.832, 0.992]
[0.646, 0.948]
Pythia – Qwen
[0.974, 0.999]
[0.945, 0.998]
[0.663, 0.970]
[0.762, 0.975]
Pythia – TinyLlama
[0.922, 0.999]
[0.684, 0.996]
[0.691, 0.968]
[0.641, 0.951]
Qwen – TinyLlama
[0.897, 1.000]
[0.655, 0.997]
[0.318, 0.913]
[0.458, 0.935]
Appendix
Table 1: 95% paired-bootstrap confidence intervals for Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients across the four measures in the poetic corpus ( n=28 poets).
Model pair
Mean BPC
Variance
Skewness
Excess kurtosis
GPT-2 – Pythia
[0.803, 0.989]
[0.812, 0.982]
[0.460, 0.914]
[0.407, 0.855]
GPT-2 – Qwen
[0.772, 0.986]
[0.776, 0.969]
[0.234, 0.916]
[0.462, 0.857]
GPT-2 – TinyLlama
[0.846, 0.984]
[0.765, 0.963]
[0.349, 0.906]
[0.528, 0.888]
Pythia – Qwen
[0.882, 0.991]
[0.784, 0.974]
[0.696, 0.947]
[0.664, 0.945]
Pythia – TinyLlama
[0.880, 0.989]
[0.824, 0.973]
[0.791, 0.977]
[0.790, 0.962]
Qwen – TinyLlama
[0.927, 0.994]
[0.934, 0.993]
[0.803, 0.978]
[0.820, 0.976]
Appendix
Table 2: 95% paired-bootstrap confidence intervals for Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients across the four measures in the academic corpus ( n=29 papers).
Moment
Compressor
ρˉcomp-LM
Δ
95% CI of Δ
Mean ( ρˉLM-LM=0.963 , n=28 )
plain deflate
0.505
0.458
[0.156, 0.806]
plain LZMA
0.520
0.443
[0.166, 0.781]
plain bzip2
0.580
0.383
[0.184, 0.661]
plain zstd
0.579
0.384
[0.170, 0.677]
primed deflate
0.768
0.195
[0.056, 0.431]
Appendix
Table 3: Compressor baselines versus language models, poetic corpus. † : interval contains zero.
Moment
Compressor
ρˉcomp-LM
Δ
95% CI of Δ
Mean ( ρˉLM-LM=0.975 , n=29 )
plain deflate
0.463
0.512
[0.194, 0.908]
plain LZMA
0.379
0.596
[0.200, 1.019]
plain bzip2
0.355
0.620
[0.269, 1.026]
plain zstd
0.363
0.612
[0.260, 1.014]
primed deflate
0.700
0.275
[0.130, 0.508]
Appendix
Table 4: Compressor baselines versus language models, academic corpus.
Model
Checkpoint identifier
GPT-2
gpt2
Pythia-410M
EleutherAI/pythia-410m
Qwen2.5-0.5B
Qwen/Qwen2.5-0.5B
TinyLlama-1.1B
TinyLlama/TinyLlama-1.1B-Chat-v1.0
Appendix
Table 5: Language-model checkpoints used in the experiments. All models were used for language model scoring purpose.
Baseline
Implementation setting
Plain DEFLATE
zlib ; raw DEFLATE stream, level 9
Plain LZMA
lzma ; raw LZMA2 stream, preset 9 with the extreme preset
Plain bzip2
bz2 ; compression level 9
Plain Zstandard
zstandard ; compressor level 19
Primed DEFLATE
Difference between compressed reference-plus-chunk size and compressed reference size, using raw DEFLATE level 9
Primed LZMA
The analogous size difference using raw LZMA2, preset 9 with the extreme preset
Appendix
Table 6: Compression implementations and settings used as non-neural baselines.
Component
Version
Python (analysis / compression)
3.13.15 / 3.10.0
PyTorch
2.11.0+cu128
PyMuPDF
1.28.2
Transformers
≥4.45 , <5 (constraint)
NumPy, pandas, SciPy
Not recorded
Matplotlib, Accelerate
Not recorded
Appendix
Table 7: Software versions recorded in the notebooks.