What Information Buys in Active Inference

Decision-making from offline datasets typically warm-starts a policy or score model from fixed offline data and then refines it with limited online interaction. Offline data reduces uncertainty, but it does not remove the need for exploration; it changes what remains to be explored. We formalise this residual uncertainty by the conditional mutual information $I(χ;τ_{1:T}\mid\mathcal{D}_N)$ between a learning target $χ$ and the online trajectories after conditioning on the offline dataset. This view leads naturally to information-directed sampling (IDS), a family parameterised by $η\ge 0$ that selects actions by trading off instantaneous regret against information gain. We prove a generic offline-to-online Bayesian regret bound for IDS through a ratio certificate: any information-ratio bound satisfied by a reference Thompson-sampling policy over the same randomised policy class is inherited by IDS. In a known-dynamics Bayesian linear-reward model, the conditional mutual information has a log-determinant form, and vanilla IDS ($η=0$) satisfies $\widetilde O\!\left(Hd\min\left\{\sqrt T,\,T\sqrt{C^\dagger_{β,\mathrm{IDS}_0}(N,T)/N}\right\}\right),$ where the coverage coefficient is tied to the visitation distribution induced by vanilla IDS itself. We also identify a warm-start regime with a dominated but informative probe in which vanilla IDS selects the probe while Thompson sampling never does, giving a constant-factor Bayesian regret separation. Controlled bandit experiments and D4RL offline-to-online RL experiments validate this mechanism: IDS is most beneficial when offline data is informative but leaves biased or low-probability residual uncertainty that targeted online actions can resolve, a regime shared by offline RL, offline black-box optimization, and Bayesian optimization.

Active Inference (AIF) frames adaptive behavior as the minimization of expected free energy (EFE), combining epistemic and pragmatic objectives within a single variational principle. We frame AIF as policy optimization and show that, for closed-loop control policies, EFE minimization can be formulated as a convex Markov decision process (MDP). This perspective reveals that policy-dependent reward prediction errors transmit natural gradients of the expected free energy backwards in time rather than up a hierarchy. Finally, we show that coupling world-model learning with policy optimization gives active inference the structure of performative reinforcement learning. Together this places EFE minimization within modern reinforcement learning and optimization theory and opens a route toward principled algorithms for active inference.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a powerful yet sample-inefficient approach for learning reward models from human preferences, making active learning a critical component in synthesizing informative preference queries. However, effective uncertainty quantification required for active learning remains a key challenge for large neural network reward models. In this paper, we introduce PreferenceEKF, a sample-efficient approach that tracks reward model uncertainty by framing active preference learning as a sequential Bayesian filtering problem. Instead of relying on computationally prohibitive posterior inference over the full neural network parameter space, our method performs sequential inference via an extended Kalman filter within a low-dimensional parameter subspace, continuously updating the reward model posterior as new preference queries arrive. Our approach enables scalable sampling of neural network parameters to efficiently compute acquisition functions for active reward learning. Experiments on the D4RL and V-D4RL benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves better sample efficiency, runtime, scalability, and calibration compared to other Bayesian deep learning approaches, and the learned reward models lead to competitive offline reinforcement learning policy performance. This highlights the potential of scalable Bayesian methods for preference-based reward modeling in RLHF. Our code is available at https://github.com/yutaizhou/bnn_pref.