Student Copula Markov Networks

Estimating the generative mechanism of large-scale networks is a fundamental challenge in statistical machine learning. It requires the identification of the latent connectivity structure, which is in general an NP-hard combinatorial problem due to the absence of canonical node labels. We address this challenge by allowing for probabilistic couplings, thereby relaxing the assignment problem. Our estimation framework can be formulated as a semi-relaxed Gromov-Wasserstein objective and provides a low-dimensional representation of the generative structure. We solve this via a block-coordinate conditional gradient algorithm. Despite the relaxation, the resulting solution is typically deterministic: in fact, we show that the optimality gap between the relaxed solution and the deterministic assignment vanishes at rate $O(1/n)$, where $n$ is the number of nodes. This allows for tractable recovery of the underlying model and enables rigorous statistical analysis: we establish consistency and minimax-optimal convergence rates for both stochastic block models and Holder-smooth graphons. Our implementation scales efficiently with $n$, as demonstrated on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Gaussian graphical model selection is usually studied under independent sampling, but in many applications the data arise as a single trajectory of a dependent stochastic process. We study exact recovery of the graph from one trajectory of random-scan Gaussian Glauber dynamics. Existing techniques for this problem either inherit the mixing time of the chain, which can be super-polynomial in the dimension $p$ without strong assumptions, or are suboptimal in the minimum normalized edge strength $κ$. We propose two algorithms that are mixing-free and attain the $κ^{-2}$ dependence of the information-theoretic lower bounds. Both instantiate a shared dueling-neighborhood search meta-algorithm with a local statistic built directly from the update sequence. For every fixed precision matrix and deterministic initialization, the first algorithm fits a least-squares regression at the updates of each node and has pointwise recovery horizon $\widetilde O(pd^{2}/κ^{2})$, where $d$ is the maximum degree. Its horizon depends logarithmically on a local conditioning quantity and on the initialization potential. The second algorithm is based on counting occurences of a specific update pattern and requires $\widetilde O(pd^{4}/κ^{2})$ updates, with no dependence on any condition number. The central technical challenge is that both statistics are built from dependent, non-stationary observations. Our analysis tackles this by demonstrating how to extract fresh Gaussian innovations from the update sequence, which yields mixing-free control of appropriate quantities. Neither the algorithms nor their analyses invoke stationarity, a spectral gap, or mixing conditions.

We study the task of learning the structure of a $d$-sparse Gaussian graphical model on $n$ variables from a single trajectory of Glauber dynamics. Beyond algorithmic considerations, many applications present temporally correlated observations rather than i.i.d.\ samples. In the classical i.i.d.\ setting, under comparably general sparsity and minimum edge-strength assumptions, sublinear-in-$n$ sample guarantees are known, but achieving them in polynomial-time remains open. Motivated in part by this gap, we give a polynomial-time algorithm that recovers the conditional-independence graph from a single Glauber trajectory, with a trajectory-length guarantee that does not depend on the mixing time. Technically, our algorithm has three components. First, we estimate the conditional variances and rescale the trajectory to reduce to the unit-diagonal case, without changing the underlying graph. Second, we design a local edge test that extracts adjacency information from short update windows by isolating pairwise influence. Third, we aggregate these local statistics using a robust median-based estimator, and prove accuracy despite temporal dependence arising from a single trajectory.